Game Lines and Wagers
Colts @ Vikings (-3.5)
o/u 47.5
Scott Taetsch/Getty Images
The Vikings -3.5 hook is out there for the taking. Vegas wants you to see it and take the Colts but Minnesota will win this game comfortably. While the Vikings defense has been their weakness, there is nothing remotely exciting about Matt Ryan and the Colts that should cause any worry. We will be on the right side of this hook.
Schiz’s Pick: Vikings -3.5 (-115)
Chiefs (-14) @ Texans
o/u 49.5
Houston almost pulled off the upset against Dallas last week. After failing to do so, Houston has to host Kansas City, the class of the NFL. There is no reason to believe the 1-11-1 Texans can suddenly keep up with contenders on a week to week basis. Dallas was asleep for 85% of the game last week and still came back to win. Don’t overthink this one.
Schiz’s Pick: Chiefs -14 (-110)
Eagles (-9) @ Bears
o/u 48.5
The Philadelphia Eagles are legitimate. Chicago, on the other hand, has pretty much one thing to offer at this point and it is a running threat in Justin Fields. I do not see Fields and the Bears offense having much success against this stout Eagles team. I would consider taking this line as high as 14 points.
Schiz’s Pick: Eagles -9 (-110)
Bengals (-3.5) @ Buccaneers
o/u 44.5
We are double fading the 3.5 hook this week. Cincinnati is a league best 10-3 ATS and playing like legitimate contenders again. The Buccaneers have looked out of sorts all season and, although I am confident Brady will return to form in time for his playoff run, Tampa is still in control of their division and the pressure is not on just yet. Cincinnati, on the other hand, looks poised to make a run to defend their AFC title, and I am not sure there is any team in the NFL equipped to stop them at the moment.
Schiz’s Pick: Bengals -3.5 (-110)
(Oh, and don’t forget Giants ML +176 on SNF)
TD Scorers
Christian Watson (+145)
I can’t say for sure that GB will cover 6.5 on Monday, although I think they will, but I can say for sure that Aaron Rodgers, who has spent his entire career clambering for a receiver not named Davante Adams, finally has his man. Adams is long gone and Rodgers has found what he is looking for in rookie Christian Watson. A remarkable 8 touchdowns in the last 4 weeks is not something to ignore. +145 is a steal. Watson has also scored twice in 3 of the last 4 weeks (+850).
Daniel Jones (+310)
Jones had 12 rushes for 71 yards against Washington two weeks ago. Last week, Jones found his way into the endzone against Philly. This is strictly a value equals opportunity play, as +310 is the right price for a guy of Jones’ opportunity. Primetime DJ is coming through this week!
JK Dobbins (+210)
Dobbins averaged 8 YPC in his return to the gridiron last week against Pittsburgh, scoring his team's only TD. With Lamar out, this team will lean on the running game to carry them against a Cleveland rush defense that ranks out as the worst in the NFL against opposing running backs.
Dalvin Cook (-135)
Going to eat some chalk here as Dalvin has been a TD machine. 9 TD’s through 13 games with only one multi TD game gives a TD probability over 60%. Against a Colts team known for their pass defense, I like Cook to find the endzone again this week.
That’s all folks. I am seeing the board clearly and this week is going to smash. May the odds be ever in your favor.
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By Mike “Schiz” Schissel (@michaelschissel)
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.