Line shopping is one of the best things you can do as a bettor. Depending on where you live and which books are available to you, it may be hard to find more than a half-point saved on a spread or a few cents saved on a money line. For teasers, though, pricing differences are clear and rarely change. For some books, a 2-team, 6-point teaser is -120 but others can reach over -140. For a bet type that already requires nearly 3/4 legs to hit to become profitable, that difference is massive. If you only want to keep your money on one book and bet recreationally, I understand why line shopping may seem like a hassle but it’s in your best interest to save and win as much as possible. Be smart and don’t force yourself to bet teasers if your book has terrible odds. With that, let's take a look at Week 15.
Game of the Week
Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers (-7) O/U: 39.5
Themi’s Teaser: Packers -1
NBC Sports
Can Baker Mayfield do it again? The Rams made a miraculous comeback against an awful Raiders defense in week 14. They now get to play in Green Bay against a Packers defense that allows the exact same EPA/Play as the Raiders, although DVOA shows the Raiders as significantly worse. The Packers are much better against the pass but are the worst defense in DVOA against the run. Cam Akers and co. could find themselves having another solid day but, in an offense that screams ‘mediocre’, it’s hard to imagine that amounting to many points.
Rodgers is not the same QB he once was but the advanced metrics support him. EPA/Play ranks the Packers passing offense 20th but DVOA is once again kinder, ranking them 14th. They’re also 7th when running the ball, thanks to Aaron Jones’ continued dominance. The Rams rank near the bottom in nearly every offensive category but Baker Mayfield is now under center and changes how we should view this offense. Regardless, the Packers are above-average against the pass and the Rams are missing Cooper Kupp. At home with a teasable spread, this is the best game of the week.
Underdog of the Week
New England Patriots (+1.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders O/U: 44.5
Themi’s Teaser: Patriots +7.5
This is a classic battle. The incredible Patriots defense faces off against a Raiders offense that is nearly unstoppable. At the same time, a mediocre Patriots offense faces off against a Raiders defense that can’t stop anything.
Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris are both at risk of missing this game with rookies Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris in line to handle the carries in their absence. They handled the carries after Stevenson went down early in Monday night’s win over the Cardinals. On only 13 total carries, the backs combined for 96 yards and 2 TDs against a below-average Cardinals run defense. Vegas ranks much better at 5th in defensive rushing EPA but DVOA ranks them 18th. In cases like this where the differences in rank are massive, I’m going to side with DVOA which accounts for opponents faced while EPA does not. Both rank the Patriots rushing defense squarely in the top-10, though, and New England ranks 4th against the pass in DVOA.
Even if Stevenson and Harris were to play at full strength, the Raiders are still the better offense. They’re 16th in DVOA and are 5th when running the ball. Josh Jacobs is leading the league with 1402 rushing yards. WR Davante Adams remains a superstar and is putting up amazing numbers in his first season with the Raiders at nearly 30 years old. The Patriots are below average on the ground and through the air and Mac Jones has had a disappointing sophomore season. Despite New England’s willingness to run the ball to win games, they still need help at WR.
Despite a massive offensive advantage for the Raiders, the Patriots defense has been hard to beat for long and the Raiders don’t have a good enough defense to fall back on. In a nearly even matchup overall, New England to lose by a TD or less is the best play. This line is moving a lot with some books offering +1. This isn’t the type of game where I’m willing to pay up to ensure I get 7.5. If you cannot find +1.5 at a good enough price I’d use one of the other options listed.
Philadelphia Eagles (-9) @ Chicago Bears O/U: 48.5
Themi’s Teaser: Eagles -2.5
I’ve talked a lot about how the Eagles are at their worst when they’re facing a great defense, especially one that excels against the run. That isn’t exclusively the case but it’s what seemed to have happened against Washington, Indianapolis, and Dallas. That theory didn’t work out when they routed the Titans but while Tennessee is tough against the run, they’re awful against the pass. This week's matchup is awful against both.
Like the Giants, the Bears have a path to success only by finding success running the ball against a soft Eagles run defense. It’s just hard to see how an upset happens when the Bears are even worse against the run and feature a passing defense that rivals the Raiders in awfulness.
Despite clinching a playoff berth, there’s still plenty for the Eagles to play for. The Dallas Cowboys are breathing down their necks in the division standings. The Cowboys, Vikings, and 49ers all have legitimate paths to the #1 seed and the coveted bye that comes with it, too. With an MVP frontrunner leading one of the best offenses - and overall teams - in football, the Chicago Bears and their injury-riddled team will need a true Sunday miracle to win or even keep this game within a field goal. The spread is back down to 8.5 on some books but if you can only find 9, this is a case where I can accept teasing the spread by 6.5 points instead of just 6.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-7) O/U: 44.5
Themi’s Teaser: Bills -1
This play is time-sensitive, so act fast. The Bills are playing on Saturday night in snowy conditions. Passing will be difficult so expect a game that is decided by the ground game and defenses, bar a lucky play or two. Neither of these teams are particularly adept at running the ball and they rank nearly dead even in rushing. The Bills and Dolphins rank closely in passing but the weather may force a defensive battle which sets the Bills up nicely. Buffalo isn’t nearly as good as the Cowboys or 49ers on defense but they still boast a top-5 unit. They’re the 3rd hardest rushing matchup by DVOA while Miami is 8th. Buffalo’s biggest strength comes against the pass. While not expected to be the focal point like it may have been in better conditions, Buffalo is 7th against the pass while Miami struggles at 22nd.
Buffalo’s strengths are amplified even more if conditions aren’t nearly as bad as expected. Their strength against the pass, even with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at Miami’s disposal, puts them ahead in this game. The 7 point line seems far too high in either game scenario, though.
Snow games can get out of control with missed kicks, slipping in coverage, and more. It’s better to assume that any of these wack scenarios could occur at an equal rate for either team and thus we should focus on who the stats say is better. That’s Buffalo but not by a wide margin with an expected drop in passing efficiency.
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.