Clay's Corner: DFS Plays for Week 15

Welcome to Clay’s DFS Plays for Week 15! Hopefully you read my article for Week 14 because we absolutely smashed! Some of Week 14’s smash calls included:

• Jared Goff - 29.1 points

• Jalen Hurts - 30.38 points

• Christian McCaffrey - 32.3 points

• Derrick Henry - 25.5 points

• Justin Jefferson - 36.3 points

• Ja’Marr Chase - 31.5 points

• KC D/ST - 15 points

• PHI D/ST - 9 points

• Evan Engram - 42.2 points

• DJ Chark - 21.4 points

Let’s stay stay red-hot in Week 15 and let the #printfest begin! 

 Week 15 Draftkings

Games to target:

1. PHI @ CHI – 48.5 O/U 

Implied totals: PHI 28.75; CHI 19.75

2. DAL @ JAX – 47.5 O/U

Implied totals: DAL 26; JAX 21.5

3. KC @ HOU – 49.5 O/U

Implied totals: KC 31.75; HOU 17.75

4. TEN @ LAC – 47.5

Implied totals: TEN 22.25; LAC 25.25

Top Cash Plays:

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($7,200)

AP Photo/Kyusung Gong

After a slow start without his main weapons, Herbert has had four consecutive games with 20+ PPR points and faces a Titans defense that has allowed more air traffic than an airport. Herbert ranks second among all QBs in total passing yards and the Chargers as a team have been passing at a 65.6% clip, second highest in the NFL. The Titans are the 4th-best True Matchup for opposing QBs and 2nd-best True Matchup for WRs (Throughout this article I’ll refer to True Matchup or True Matchup Rank, this is a Broto Exclusive Stat that adjusts for how defenses perform against specific players, rather than overall points allowed).  They have allowed the QB1 overall on back-to-back weeks.

Jalen Hurts ($8,200)

Hurts has been on fire his last three outings, socring 30+ PPR points in all three contests, respectively. Now, Hurts gets a toothless Bears defense that ranks as the 10th-best True Matchup for QBs. The Bears particularly struggle against rushing QBs, coming in as the 3rd-best True Matchup for rushing QBs.

Running Back

Derrick Henry ($8,000) 

Happy D-Henber everyone! Alright, so Henry didn’t completely dominate the Jaguars in Week 14(2 lost fumbles, yuck) but he still went for 100+ yards and a TD, which was good for the 4th-most points from a RB on the slate. This week, though, Henry gets to face the run-funnel LA Chargers defense. Even after holding RB Raheem Mostert and RB Jeff Wilson Jr. to a combined 63 yards on the ground, the Chargers still rank as the 2nd-best True Matchup for RBs. It truly could be a D-Henber to remember. 

Tony Pollard ($7,100) 

Pollard has failed to reach 20+ fantasy points in just one of his last six games and is in an offense that runs through him and his backfield-mate Ezekiel Elliot. The Jaguars run defense has been beatable the past couple of weeks, giving up over 100 yards and a TD to RB Derrick Henry in Week 14 and 97 yards and 2 TDs to RB D’Andre Swift & RB Jamaal Williams in Week 13. 

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen ($6,800) 

Cash game Keenan is back! Allen has been a target monster his last two games, garnering 28 total targets in that stretch, and has 80+ receiving yards in three of his last four games. The Titans are the 2nd-best True matchup for WRs, meaning the Titans secondary is in for a long day. 

Garrett Wilson ($6,000)

Garrett Wilson is showing why the Jets drafted him 10th overall. Wilson has 30 total targets in thre games since QB Mike White took over the starting job and has 78 or more receiving yards in 5 of his last 6 games. Wilson now gets the Detroit Lions, who come in as the 4th-best True Matchup for WRs. Expect another strong week for the young Jets WR. (Zach Wilson has since been named the starter but Wilson still has upside at this cost and will likely drop in rostership percentage now.

Chris Olave ($6,500) 

This week is turning into rookie WR week. Olave has been down the past two weeks with 5 receptions for 62 yards and 4 receptions for 65 yards, respectively, against the tough 49ers and Buccaneers defenses. The schedule opens up this week as he gets the Falcons, the best True Matchup for WRs. Olave has a 22.8% target share on the season and is 11th in True Target Value (Broto exclusive stat). Trust the process and play Olave.

Tight End 

Since I have a lot of expensive recommendations for cash here are a few salary savers at TE this week -

Dalton Schultz ($4,400)

Schultz has been up and down since returning from injury, however, he has had five or more targets in six of his last seven games as well as three receiving TDs. We just witnessed Titans rookie TE Chigoziem Okonkwo tear up this Jacksonville secondary for 45 yards and a TD, so there is no reason to think Schultz can’t be as, or more, successful this week. 

Greg Dulcich ($3,600)

Along with the flowing locks and sweet ‘stache, Dulcich gets a sweet matchup with the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15. The Cardinals rank as the best True Matchup for TEs. Even TE Hunter Henry put up 70 yards on 3 receptions against the Cardinals on Monday Night Football in Week 14, his highest output of the season. Place Dulcich in your cash lineup like Dulce de leche on desserts.  

D/ST 

Carolina Panthers ($3,300) 

A matchup against either QB Kenny Pickett or QB Mitch Trubisky should set up the Panthers defense for a nice day. 

Denver Broncos ($2,700)

The Cardinals should be without QB Kyler Murray after the injury he suffered on Monday Night Football in Week 14, left QB Colt McCoy to lead the Cardinals. McCoy had a fumble and INT against the Patriots defense last week and Denver is the 28th-best True Matchup for QBs. Colt McCoy should be under heavy duress, leading to fantasy points for the Denver defense in your cash lineup. 

Favorite stacks:

1. Patrick Mahomes + Travis Kelce, no bring back.  

2. Justin Herbert + Keenan Allen + Mike Williams with Derrick Henry or Chigoziem Okonkwo bring back.  

3. Jalen Hurts + AJ Brown + Devonta Smith, no bring back. 

GPP Plays:

QB Justin Herbert ($7,200) & Jalen Hurts ($8,200)

See cash section

QB Patrick Mahomes ($8,200)

Mahomes is always a GPP option. He dismantled a tough Broncos defense on the road in Week 14, going for 300+ passing yards and 3 passing touchdowns. In comes the Texans defense, who on the surface seem like a good pass defense, ranking as the worst True Matchup for both QBs and WRs. However, if we look a little closer, teams are just choosing to run on he Texans instead of pass, which is why the Texans are the 8th-best True Matchup for RBs. Don’t let the numbers deceive you, Mahomes can torch any defense, especially the Texans. 

RB- D’Onta Foreman ($5,400)

The Steelers defense was reeling early in the season with the loss of defending DPOY DE TJ Watt. With Watt back the defense has been statistically better, however, the Steelers can still be beat in the run game. RB JK Dobbins, fresh off a return from injury, rushed for 120 yards against this Steelers defense last week on the road. Playing Foreman this week is risky because of the nature of a split workload but the way the Steelers have been beat on the ground this season has been with punishing runners like Foreman. 

RB- Alvin Kamara ($6,800)

It has nOt been the best of seasons for Kamara but he currently he sits at RB15 with several boom-or-bust performances. there are still a few peripheral numbers that Kamara is excelling in. Here are some of Kamara’s compelling numbers among RBs:

-3rd in receptions

-5th in targets

-3rd in True Target Value (Broto exclusive stat)

-4th in target share (15.9%)

The Falcons, Kamara’s Week 15 opponent rank 10th in True Matchup for RBs. Kamara is worth a gamble in GPPs this week. 

WR Juju Smith Schuster ($5,800)

Juju is 8th in points per opportunity excluding TDs and 15th in True Target Value. Give me a stackable weapon with QB Patrick Mahomes anyday in GPPs. 

WR Mike Williams ($6,300) 

If WR Keenan Allen is the cash game piece for the LA Chargers then Mike Williams is the GPP piece. Williams is the big play threat that can win you a week.

TE Travis Kelce ($7,800) 

Kelce has been quiet as of late, too quiet in fact — he hasn’t topped 10 targets since Week 11. Something has to give as the Texans rank 15th in True Matchup for TEs. Kelce is still the TE1 overall for a reason and with the Chiefs 31.75 implied team total, Kelce should get in on the scoring. 

D/ST

See cash section

Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)

WR DJ Chark absolutely crushed for me in Week 14, raising me to 7-6.

WR Tyquan Thornton ($3,000) 

A min-priced Thornton is very intriguing. The Patriots have been ravaged offensively with injuries and should they concede points to the Raiders on Sunday, New England will have to counter with an improved offensive attack. Tyquan Thornton can be that counter-punch. He only has 8 targets over his last two games but New England has also deployed Thornton as a rusher (has one rushing TD),which gives me confidence that he can be a sneaky lone ranger play in Week 15.

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By Clayton Jones