Attempting to predict outcomes in the NFL can seem fairly easy when looking at it from a macro view. Anyone who follows the league can point out that one team may have a good offense and their opponent may have a bad defense but, if that's all there was to it, the exhilaration we feel from watching football every Sunday would cease to exist. When you zoom in on any game you’ll see the individual battles taking place all over the field. These are often where the real story is told, so let's dive into some of the Pro Football Focus data on matchups between Wide Receivers and Defensive Backs that could really tip the scales in Week Fifteen.
Golden Opportunity WR of the Week
Tyreek Hill vs Buffalo Bills
Rob Carr/Getty Images
Rarely, if ever, does Tyreek Hill have a “bad” matchup. Nonetheless, when he has an especially good one it should be noted. Hill’s first season as a Dolphin is already one to remember. He leads the league in receptions and his 92.4 PFF grade is not only best among all receivers, it’s also the best of his career so far. Last time Tyreek Hill saw Buffalo he lined up out-wide for the majority of the game. Now his most common alignment is in the slot, where he will be covered by Taron Johnson for a projected 20 snaps. Johnson is not producing the way that Bills fans want to see, demonstrated by his 63.4 PFF grade and uninspiring raw stats. He leads Buffalo’s starting corners in fantasy points per target and is allowing a reception 72% of the time he is thrown at. Add in Tyreek Hill’s astounding 3.54 yards per route run and nearly 15 yards per catch and we are in a prime spot for some TyFreak magic.
‘Better Luck Next Time’ WR of the Week
Amari Cooper vs Baltimore Ravens
Amari Cooper, the Browns number one wide receiver, has been playing fairly well in 2022 with a 77.7 PFF grade. Unfortunately, in Week 15, he will really have to work no matter where he lines up on the field. When on the outside, Cooper will see a ton of Marlon Humphrey, who’s 74.5 grade is being brought down by his poor run defense. He is still holding opposing pass-catchers to less than one yard per route run. When Cooper moves into the slot another big name will be waiting for him in Kyle Hamilton. The huge safety/cornerback hybrid is in the slot nearly half the time he is on the field. Hamilton may be rookie but he is currently grading better than Humphrey with an 84.3 grade. Cooper is projected to be covered by one of these two guys alone for over 70% of his offensive snaps.
Dogfight of the Week
Drake London vs Marshon Lattimore
Drake London’s rookie campaign has strangely left some people encouraged and others woefully disappointed. Catching 59% of his targets and sitting at a 77.8 PFF grade he has been very solid, albeit inconsistent. London has another great chance to prove himself this week against New Orleans. He lines up out-wide on the offensive left (defensive right) more than half the time. It just so happens that Marshon Lattimore is outside on the defensive right 77% of his snaps. Having a great game against Lattimore would be great to add to London’s resume due to the name recognition of the stud CB, however, it should actually be a very winnable matchup for Drake London. Lattimore is expected to return but just missed a ton of time with a lacerated kidney. Not only does that sound rather awful to recover from, he was already not playing very well in the first five games he played. Extrapolated over a full season, his 52.2 PFF defense grade and 55.7 coverage grade would both be career lows. Assuming New Orleans doesn’t limit his Lattimore’s time, the 28 snaps PFF projects these two will see each other is the most of any individual matchup in week 15.
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By Taren Caravella
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.