Welcome back Broto Bettors! Week 8 was kind to us. The 49ers took care of business as planned and so did the Titans. The Bills threw us a bone early with Stefon Diggs leading the way into the endzone en route to a victory over Green Bay. It was an excellent pivot to leave the spread alone in that game, as it came down to a half point in either direction, depending where you got the line. The Dolphins let us down, not giving Mostert the ball inside the 5 more than once or twice, and the wagon that is the New York Giants moneyline finally saw the wheels fall off. Nonetheless, with Henry and Barkley both finding the endzone, we had a nice solid week and ended up profiting a couple of units! Week 9 marks the end of the first half of the season. Let’s get some momentum and end the first half strong!
Game Lines and Wagers:
Colts @ Patriots u40.5 (-110)
Athlon Sports
This is a tale of two anemic offenses and two solid defenses. These are also two teams that like to run the ball and control the clock. With Sam Ehlinger playing QB for the Colts, Indianappolis will lean heavily on the run to try and keep up with New England. Last week vs Washington, Ehlinger attempted just 23 passes en route to a 17-16 loss, with Indiannapolis calling 29 running plays in the process. The Patriots, on the other hand, have struggled to find an identity on offense, flip flopping between Quarterback and Wide Receiver options all year. The one constant has been Rhamondre Stevenson in the backfield getting the lionshare of the work at the RB position. Plan for a slow, boring, low-scoring game that likely results in a New England victory.
Jets +11.5 vs Bills (-110)
The Jets have played well enough this season to earn a 5-3 record, both in wins and losses and ATS. As 10.5 point favorites last week against Green Bay, Buffalo failed to cover by a half point, winning the matchup by 10. What I believe was most telling about that victory was that the Bills were held to just 3 points in the second half by Green Bay’s defense as GB clawed their way back into the game. The decision by GB to kick the field goal first to overcome a two score deficit likely prevented this game from being even closer (that field goal incidentally was wide left). The Jets are a more complete team than Green Bay and 11.5 is too many points. NY should be able to keep this division rivalry matchup close.
Saints ML vs Ravens (+115)
Andrew Dalton (not Andy, if you know you know) has quietly been an excellent quarterback since taking over for Jameis WInston. Meanwhile, the Ravens have shown a knack for playing in close games, even if large leads are taken throughout the game. With Rashod Bateman out for the season, Mark Andrews battling injuries and trending towards out, JK Dobbins out and Gus Edwards trending towards out as well, I do not see the Ravens offense being able to keep up with the Saints in New Orleans. We love an underdog in primetime!
Anytime TD/ML Parlay (FanDuel Only)
Justin Jefferson/Vikings (+200)
NBC Sports
As three point favorites against the Washington Commanders, I largely expect the Vikings to cover. With occasional flashes of a fun and productive offense led by Taylor Heinicke, I would rather pick a scorer in the game than lay the points. Washington’s Defense is the 3rd best matchup in True Matchup Ranking for WRs, allowing 30.4 fantasy points per game to the position, which is 28% over average. Jefferson is the alpha and safer target to bet but I likely will put a little bit on Thielen at +290 as well, and maybe even sprinkle on KJ Osborn at +550.
TD Scorers
Aaron Jones (-190)
The Lions are 3rd in True Matchup Ranking to opposing running backs. I like Aaron Jones to find the endzone this week and likely will sprinkle on two TDs as well.
Juju Smith-Schuster (+155)
Juju is finally finding the endzone after weeks and weeks near the top of the TTaV (True Target Value) rankings. Now that he has found the endzone a few times, I expect the connection to continue with Patrick Mahomes. +155 is excellent value.
Raheem Mostert (+115)
Running it back with Mostert this week as the Dolphins have another favorable matchup on the ground in the Bears, who rank 6th in True Matchup Rank for RBs overall, and 4th for RBs just on the ground. I willl take this for plus money. If you like the Dolphins to win, the Anytime TD/ML Parlay is +200 for the pair.
That will do it for Week 9 folks! You can find me on twitter for any other betting chatter or in the Broto discord if you’re a patron. Let’s have another great week!
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-Mike “Schiz” Schissel
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.