SLEEPERS
QB: Andrew Dalton (NO)
Andrew Dalton and the hometown Saints host the Ravens on Monday Night Football in a cross-conference matchup between two teams that have been decimated with injuries this season. Betting lines have the Ravens favored by less than a field goal at 2.5 with a projected Over/Under scoring total of 47.5 points in a close matchup between two capable offenses. Dalton has looked surprisingly competent this season, leading to the takeover of Jameis Winston as the Saints starter despite Winston being cleared to play from a previous injury. The Red Rifle is averaging 16.4 fantasy PPG (QB14) with 235.5 passing yards per game over his first five starts of 2022. The Saints signal-caller has thrown nine touchdowns in those five games, averaging 0.50 fantasy points per dropback (QB13) despite some costly turnovers. Dalton has an exploitable matchup on the docket as the Ravens defense concedes 266.8 passing yards (28th) and 18.8 PPG to opposing quarterbacks. The Ravens allow 16.4% over the average amount of points to the quarterback position, ranked ninth overall in our True Matchup Rankings. Lamar Jackson and company should be able to hang points on the Saints defense with relative ease, leaving Dalton and the offense to increase their pace of play in the passing game. Dalton is a serviceable QB2 with intriguing upside in what should be a favorable matchup against a struggling secondary.
Matt Ward
RB: Khalil Herbert (CHI)
Readers would be hard-pressed to find another person that has waxed poetic on the immense talent of Khalil “Mini Hulk” Herbert more than myself. Herbert is better than his veteran counterpart, David Montgomery, in every facet of the game from both fantasy and functional perspectives. It seems as if the Bears have finally taken notice of the weapon they have at their disposal. In Week 8, the Bears afforded the second-year back a laughably low snap share of just 28.0% (22 snaps). Reduced field time did not affect Herbert, who recorded 99 rushing yards on 16 carries with one touchdown, marking the first game in which he recorded a higher volume of rushing attempts. Herbert does not need a workhorse opportunity share to put up massive production. He averages 6.5 yards per touch (RB5) and 1.01 fantasy points per opportunity (RB10), allowing for a safe scoring floor despite a shared workload. The Bears running backs get a positive defensive matchup against the Dolphins in Week 9, a team that concedes 20.6 PPG to the position. The Dolphins allow 13.7% over the expected average of PPG to opposing running backs with a True Matchup Rank of 9th overall. Herbert is quietly averaging 12.3 PPG (RB24) but has yet to receive the recognition indicative of his production. Start the fringe RB2 with confidence knowing he presents week-winning upside if the Bears allow him to continue the takeover of the backfield.
Matt Ward
WR: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (KC)
The speedster on the outside for the Kansas City Chiefs, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been boom or bust this season with the busts vastly outweighing the booms. This week, however, the Titans defense poses a perfect spot for MVS to have a solid week while six different teams are on bye.
Somehow, Tennessee comes into this matchup at 5-2, with a two game lead in their division despite being outscored 132-138 on the season. This disparity exists because the Titans have been, as they have been for most of their time under HC Mike Vrabel, susceptible to the big play.
So far in 2022, the Titans have surrendered the seventh most pass yards per play, have given up the third most receiving TDs and have given up the fifth most total air yards on completions despite already having a bye week.
On the opposite end, the loss of WR Tyreek Hill has been no problem for the Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid offense that has been attacking the air with the same vigor that it always has, recording the most 20+ yard and the second most 40+ yard plays in the NFL.
With six teams on bye, MVS has as good a chance as he has had all year to hit a big play and make you happy you saved him as a bye-week filler.
Tim Petropoulos
TE: Gerald Everett (LAC)
Gerald Everett has had a rollercoaster season in 2022. He has recorded four finishes as a top-8 tight end (11.6 PPG) and three finishes outside of the top 20 tight ends (3.2 PPG). These highs and lows have combined to land Everett as the TE12 in both overall points and points per game (Half-PPR). Everett has been holding his own week in and week out, though, recording a team target share of 14.6% with 45 targets through seven games. The next closest Tight End on the roster has only 7 targets. He also has 8 red zone targets on the season, which is tied for 4th among all tight ends. It is evident that Everett has a cemented role in this offense and that role is looking to be expanded even further in Week Nine.
The Chargers are currently without Mike Williams for the next few weeks and are shaping up to be without Keenan Allen, as well. An offense depleted of serious firepower means there are targets to go around and increased opportunity for secondary options to step up. This is where Everett comes in. He has already been a favorable target for Justin Herbert in recent weeks, accruing 5 catches in three of the past four games. Now, he is facing off against the Atlanta Falcons who are the 9th most favorable matchup to the tight end position allowing 20.6% points over average. They are also allowing nearly 7 catches and 69 yards (nice) to tight ends each week. If this trend continues, Everett should see the majority of the work and is in line for above-average production. With a matchup as juicy as this one, combined with a large window of opportunity, Everett is a lock to finish as a TE1 with serious top-5 TE upside. If managers are choosing between Everett and any other tight end not named Kelce, the answer is Everett.
Nick Beaulieu
BUSTS
QB: Tom Brady (TB)
Yahoo! Sports
The regression of a 45-year-old quarterback should not be surprising to anyone but Tom Brady is not your average anyone. Unfortunately, average epitomizes Brady’s passing output this season. The greatest quarterback to ever play the game is averaging a middling 15.4 PPG (QB19) with only nine touchdowns through eight games. Brady has thrown for multiple touchdowns in only one game this season as the Buccaneers have failed to find victories in easy places with several losses to unsuspecting underdogs. Brady and the bunch host the Rams in Week 9 in a battle of two underperforming playoff hopefuls. The once-feared reputation of these two mammoth offensive units has dissipated. Betting lines have the projected scoring total at a surprisingly low 42.5 points with the Buccaneers as 3.0-point favorites. The Rams defense allows a modest 205.7 passing yards (11th) and 22.4 points (11th) to their opponents this season. The reigning Super Bowl champs are giving up 16.1 PPG to opposing quarterbacks with a True Matchup rank of 24th overall and a Points Over Average of -12.1% to the position. Brady’s reputation as a must-start quarterback in fantasy is rapidly fading this season. He has yet to find success against some of the weakest opponents in the NFL. Hoping for a bounce-back performance against a top-ranked defensive matchup is ill-advised.
Matt Ward
RB: Deon Jackson (IND)
Jonathan Taylor’s reign as fantasy football's most valuable running back was short-lived. His duration atop the pantheon of game-changing producers has ceased as the Colts running back is averaging a mere 11.9 PPG (RB25) this season. Taylor has only one touchdown across six games as the entire Colts offense has struggled to produce amidst the disastrous decline of Matt Ryan and transition to sixth-round game manager Sam Ehlinger.
Jonathan Taylor is out for Week nine.
The reason I discussed Taylor is because of the hype around his replacement this week, Deon Jackson. While Jackson had a great fantasy game in Week six as the lead back, totaling 42 rushing yards and a TD on 12 attempts and ten receptions for 79 receiving yards on 10 targets, he did this against an exploitable Jaguars rushing defense with Matt Ryan at the helm. Neither of these variables are the same heading into Week nine, and if Jonathan Taylor has been unable to find success this season, Deon Jackson is unlikely to find success himself.
The Colts (3-4-1) travel to Foxborough to face long-time rivals as the Patriots (4-4) look to climb above .500. The Patriots defense presents a worrisome challenge for Jackson as they allow 15.7 PPG with a Points Over Average rating of -21.4%, ranked 32nd, as the toughest possible matchup for opposing running backs. With Sam Ehlinger at QB, the Colts will likely look Jackson’s way quite a bit, but that does not mean he is destined for another big fantasy game. Bill Belichick is a master game planner who excels at shutting down his opponents' top weapons on offense at all costs. Temper expectations on the young RB as his upside is capped in this matchup.
Matt Ward
WR: Gabriel Davis (BUF)
There has been no bigger boom-or-bust WR option than the offseason’s most hotly-debated player, Gabriel Davis, as he has finished as high as WR1 overall and as low as WR88. This week, he draws a tough in-division matchup on the road against a CB tandem that has quietly been the best in the NFL.
Jets CB’s Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner and DJ Reed have been untouchable in coverage this so far in 2022, allowing just one TD combined over the first eight weeks.
The duo, lead by rookie of the year favorite, Sauce Gardner, contains the No. 2 and No. 5 graded cover corners, respectively, according to PFF. Sauce has given up more than 33 yards to the WR position just once (34 of those yards coming on a play where he tripped) and Reed has yet to give up more than 50.
This is the toughest challenge the Jets defense will face all season, so I expect those numbers to look a bit worse after this week, but this is a bad spot to target an up-and-down player. Diggs will get his, but I am staying away from the erratic nature of Davis in a bad matchup.
Tim Petropoulos
TE: T.J. Hockenson (MIN)
T.J. Hockenson is a risky play most weeks but Week nine will be the riskiest week of all. Even though Hockenson is currently the TE5 overall and TE4 in PPG, these numbers are deceiving. In Week four, Hockenson recorded 8 catches for 179 yards and 2 touchdowns, amassing 35.9 fantasy points. This week alone accounted for 30% of his receptions, 45% of his yardage, and 67% of his touchdowns for the season. The 35.9 fantasy points accounted for a whopping 49.5% of his total fantasy points on the season. For reference, he has only scored 36.6 points total across his other 7 games played (5.2 PPG). This one game inflated Hockenson’s entire season and is the only reason he is not on a vast majority of waiver wires today.
Hockenson got traded to the Minnesota Vikings on Tuesday and set himself up for a perfect storm of fantasy failure. The Vikings tight end room has combined for 37 catches, 270 yards, and 3 touchdownson the season. These combined stats yield 9 PPG and would come in as the TE9 in 2022. Not only are their combined stats bland but none of the individual tight ends has amassed more than 5 catches or 42 yards in a game all season. It is clear the tight end position carries minimal value in this Vikings offense and Hockenson is unlikely to change that trend. In Week nine, the Vikings are set to square off against the Washington Commanders, who are the toughest matchup in the NFL for opposing tight ends. They are allowing a mere 5 PPG, good for - 49.5% points over average. When combining the mediocre Hockenson, who has had less than one week to learn a new system and playbook, with a horrible matchup, it leads to a recipe for a dud game. Keep Hockenson as far away from starting lineups as possible this week.
Nick Beaulieu
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.