Themi's Teasers: Week 9

We kept the good times rolling in Week 8 with a 4-1 week, bringing our rolling total to 15-10, or a 60% hit rate on teaser legs. This week is thinner in total options but there are still a few great plays out there. Let’s eat some more Ws.

Game of the Week

Carolina Panthers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) O/U: 43.5

Themi’s Teaser: Bengals -1.5

Ja’Marr Chase was sorely missed as the Bengals offense looked atrocious on Monday Night Football without him. Against a Browns team that still ranks as a bottom-5 defense, Cincinnati only managed 13 points. Joe Burrow still had a respectable 232 passing yards and 2 TDs to only one interception despite the struggles. Lack of a run game, a slow start, and a failure to capitalize on turnovers cost the Bengals the game. They now find themselves in a prime bounce-back spot at home against a suddenly decent Panthers team.

After trading away superstar RB Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers beat division rival Tampa Bay and nearly beat the Falcons, had it not been for a taunting penalty and two horrific missed kicks. PJ Walker is playing much better than Baker Mayfield but I do question if he is good enough for this success to last forever. Walker has an EPA/Play of -0.07, just slightly better than Zach Wilson and worse than Mitchell Trubisky. The raw passing numbers may seem impressive but Walker is unlikely to be the next Geno Smith.

Cincinnati still boasts the 8th best offense and 9th best defense in EPA/Play. It is going to take a lot more luck for Carolina to hand this Bengals team their 5th loss of the season. Three of their losses have come in divisional games and the other came against Dallas’ elite defense.

The Bengals are the far superior team, with or without Ja’Marr Chase. At home with a low point total, teasing this line down makes the most sense and is my safest play of the week.

Underdog of the Week

Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons (+3) O/U: 49

Themi’s Teaser: Falcons +9

I have branded the Chargers as the AFC version of the Atlanta Falcons, mostly because of their uncanny ability to blow leads in recent years. The biggest difference between these teams, however, is that the Chargers are talented on both sides of the ball while the Falcons are fielding the same team as my Madden franchise that I started with only free agents. While one team plays down, the other plays up.

The Falcons are atrocious on defense and rank 31st in defensive EPA/Play. They are about equally as bad against the pass and the rush. The Falcons defense allows the highest rushing success rate in the league and they allow the 3rd highest dropback success rate. It is more likely that a struggling offense with Justin Herbert at the helm figures it out coming off of a bye week, than it would be the Falcons shutting them down.

I do believe Falcons match up quite well, though. Atlanta took advantage of a bad rushing defense when they narrowly beat the Browns and they even found success against the Saints and Rams, losing by a combined five points to two of the best rushing defenses in the league. Let’s not forget that Atlanta also beat the 49ers by double digits. The only team to beat the Falcons by more than six points this season was the Bengals. The Chargers do not have Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. They don’t even have their two best WRs - Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. This is a risky play but the Falcons are better than they sound.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+2) O/U: 48

Themi’s Teaser: Jaguars +8

This game was a serious contender for my Underdog of the Week play. These two teams are similar in many ways but the Jaguars are better than their record suggests. The Jaguars offense ranks 11th in EPA/Play and their defense is 14th. The team doesn’t feature many phenomenal performers but overall as collective units, they have played quite well.

The two most important players in each respective offense is arguably the RB position. Travis Etienne and Josh Jacobs have flourished and seen their dynasty stock skyrocket. Per Football Outsiders, Jacobs is 3rd in the league in DYAR and DVOA, while Etienne is 8th in both. The Jaguars are average against the run, while the Raiders have been top-10 defensive unit agains the run. This is where the Raiders hold the biggest advantage and the key to victory.

Jacksonville will likely struggle to contain Jacobs more than WR Davante Adams, the latter of whom was just shut down by the New Orleans Saints, even without Marshon Lattimore. Jacksonville has lost several close games this season but always seem to keep it close against teams of a similar caliber.

Jacksonville has not won a home game since shutting out the Colts in Week 1. Regardless, they are more than capable of keeping it close with a team like the Raiders. The Jaguars largest loss has still only been by 8 points to the undefeated Eagles and I would certainly prefer to back the statistically better team at home in this matchup.

The Raiders have been a mediocre team this season and are in no position to crush the Jaguars. As much as I like the Jaguars to win, teasing this spread to over a TD provides a much-needed safety net.

Seattle Seahawks (+2) @ Arizona Cardinals O/U: 50

Themi’s Teaser: Seahawks +8

Seattle Seahawks

Abandoning their image as a run-first team, the Seattle Seahawks have quietly built a ferocious passing attack that cannot be ignored any longer. It is not a surprise to see a WR duo like DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett succeed but few expected it to come with journeyman Geno Smith at QB. Smith ranks 7th in EPA/Play amongst QBs and is 4th in EPA + CPOE (completion percentage over expected) composite. On the other side of the ball, the much higher paid QB Kyler Murray, ranks closer to Kenny Pickett and Justin Fields in those categories and the Cardinals offense is only 21st in EPA/Play. Arizona is a bottom-10 defense against the pass and while Seattle is not far behind, we can trust the Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense as a whole much more at this point in the season.

A Vegas point total of 50 while backing an underdog in an away game is not an ideal situation in general, but I do believe an exception is due here. The Cardinals offense has been slightly more dynamic since getting DeAndre Hopkins back but they have not done enough for anyone to confidently favor them by more than a TD in this game. This is my riskiest play all week but the sharp money has generally been in favor of the Seahawks, who were originally 4 point underdogs.

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By Themi Michalakis