Another week, another profit! What a fun Sunday slate Week 10 turned out to be. We started the day with a disappointing showing from Seattle but we never looked back! The Giants covered, Saquon found the endzone, the Titans covered and San Francisco pulled off their victory with a Christian McCaffrey touchdown. The biggest win of the day was Minnesota not only pulling off the +7 cover but securing the overall victory for a really nice ML boost! Just a monster day for the Broto Bettors. The Evan Engram sprinkle had good process but came up short as Christian Kirk had himself a day and the Jalen Hurts fade reared its ugly head on Monday night. Water always finds its level and it would appear we jumped the Hurts ship a little early. Nonetheless, our Week 10 ticket profited roughly 7 units depending on management. Let’s keep this momentum rolling as always and dive into Week 11.
Week 11 Game Lines and Wagers
Jets +3.5 @ Patriots (-120)
The New York Jets continue to find ways to win games and keep them close, silencing favored opponents and covering inferiors along the way. At 6-3 ATS, this Jets squad is one I will continue to target. While our “underdogs outright” theory likely applies here, Coach Belichick did a great job in his last meeting with NY to minimize the offense's ability to flow by keeping pressure on Zach Wilson to secure a 5 point victory for New England. I like being on the right side of the 3.5 point hook here, so I will hold off the eagerness to take the moneyline for the built in safety of the points. Nonetheless, I like the Jets in this contest.
Giants -3 vs Lions (-106)
Speaking of New York football, the Giants are a league best 7-2 ATS, matching their 7-2 game record. Upon doing some research, I discovered that the 2 losses were also the two times the Giants failed to cover as they were underdogs in both games (Dallas in Week 2, Seattle in Week 8). In other words, the Giants have yet to not cover the spread as a favorite, and the Lions with just a 3 point spread at home is a no brainer. The Lions have some energy and can get hot but the Giants are a top to bottom better football team and will have no problem with 3 points. Throw another Saquon TD in there if you want to have some extra fun.
Raiders @ Broncos u41.5 (-110)
The Broncos have arguably the best defensive unit in the league and shockingly one of the worst offensive units in the league. They are a boring watch, often stagnant with the ball and leaning on the defense to keep them in games. The Raiders, on the other hand, are often uninspiring on offense outside of a few splashy plays per game. They continue to struggle with identity all over. On defense, LV is most susceptible to the QB and the running game according to True Matchup Rank, two areas Denver is not formidable in. The Raiders pass defense has held its own decently enough that they should be able to hold off Mr. High Knees Russell Wilson and his gang of misfits. I expect a lot of 3 and outs, a lot of field goals, and maybe 1 TD per team. Brace for an ugly one, but enjoy the under.
Vikings ML vs Cowboys (+106)
SKOL! Ball don’t lie theory came into full effect as the referees essentially tried to hand the game to Buffalo down the stretch last Sunday but Kirk Cousins and company came through with a stellar performance to hang on to the game, due largely in part to Patrick Peterson and the Vikings defense. Dallas, on the other hand, had a road win at Lambeau secured with a two TD lead before coughing it up in what turned out to be a very disappointing loss. Both of these teams went to overtime last week but only one walked away with momentum and a tie for the best record in the NFL, the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota silenced the strength-of-schedule haters by knocking off everyone’s title darlings and will carry those vibes into a home bout with the Cowboys. Dalvin Cook looks electric, despite seemingly having to break 3 tackles behind the line of scrimmage on every carry, and if Justin Jefferson is not your choice for best receiver in the league, you are not paying attention. I expect a close game, and likely a shootout (o47.5 will likely be in play for me), that the Vikings will manage to win.
TD Scorers and Props
Davante Adams (-115)
With the Raiders playing terribly, Davante Adams took it upon himself to call out his teammates saying, “We don’t have enough guys that are fully bought in.” Tae is a super star and always finds a way. I like him to score against a division rival and a marquee CB matchup with Pat Surtain.
Saquon Barkley 2+ (+310)
The man who can’t be stopped! Saquon Barkley had another incredible performance in a plus matchup against Houston last week, trucking along for over 150 yards on the ground and a TD, earning him the number one overall RB performance for fantasy purposes despite catching only 1 pass for 8 yards. Now facing Detroit, I could see Saquon having a day for the ages and scoring multiple times. 1 feels like a lock so I will try my luck with multiple scores!
Tee Higgins (+150)
Kirk Irwin/Getty Images
Joe Scheisty is finding his form despite the absence of Ja’Marr Chase and this division rival Pittsburgh team is 6th in True Matchup Ranking against opposing WRs. Coming off of a bye, it is a good week for Higgins to get on the board, especially at plus money.
Elijah Mitchell (+130)
CMC found his way into the endzone the last two weeks for us. On Sunday Night, however, Kyle Shanahan seemed determined to get Mitchell as much, if not more, work than CMC and Mitchell looked excellent and healthy. Even though McCaffrey played the majority of snaps and got considerably more receiving work, I feel good about this play. AZ is the number one True Matchup for RBs so I expect both backs to get their looks. The value on Mitchell to score is much better than CMC despite their even rushing shares, so this is a favorable line!
Justin Jefferson (-115)
WR1 in talent and WR1 in our hearts. This man cannot be stopped. Cowboys will be a plus matchup for JJ in a matchup with high scoring potential. No hesitations taking his TD week in and week out, as Kirk looks for him early and often, especially in the red zone.
Travis Kelce (-135)
No Juju, no Hardman, no snaps for CEH. Shootout potential with LAC. This is a no brainer.
That’ll do it folks! Let’s keep our hot streak alive and build up some bankroll for the World Cup. Happy betting!
The Fantasy Football by Broto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start/sit tool, player cards, exclusive statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more!
Check out patreon.com/BRotofantasy to access extra episodes, join our community, win prizes, and help keep the app free.
By Mike “Schiz” Schissel
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.