SLEEPERS
WR: Darnell Mooney (CHI)
247 Sports
The Bears offense began the 2022 season like a wayward ship lost in the night. The team is taking small strides towards correcting that course by allowing second-year quarterback Justin Fields to play schoolyard football, running amok against helpless defenders. Fields needs to improve in leaps and bounds as a passer to consistently support his teammates as reliable fantasy options but things are trending in the right direction. The Bears have been able to extend their offensive possessions as of late, thus creating more passing opportunities for their top wideout. Mooney is pulling a 28.0% target share (WR10) this season, earning five or more targets in every game since Week 2. That game coincided with the last contest in which Fields recorded fewer than 20 pass attempts. Still, the Bears are averaging just 12.3 completions and 20.7 pass attempts per game but face a defensive matchup that could help Mooney and company overcome their menial usage. The Bears travel to face the Falcons in Week 11, who allow a league-worst 280.1 passing yards and 25.0 offensive points per game. Mooney’s opponents have allowed six different receivers to post 100-yard games this season, giving up 39.2 PPG to wide receivers with a True Matchup Rank of 1st Overall. The Falcons' defense concedes an absurd 50.3% Points Over Average to the position, setting Mooney up for his first big breakout game of the year.
Matt Ward
TE: Greg Dulcich (DEN)
Greg Dulcich set fire to the fantasy football world in his first three career games, posting three consecutive performances inside of the top 12 players at the position (TE11, TE7, TE9). The Broncos' rookie tight end fell flat in Week 10, catching just one pass on four targets (9.5% TS). Dulcich did, however, play an encouraging amount of snaps, recording 71 for a team high share of 89.0%. The 6’4” behemoth will look to bounce back against a poor Raiders defense that allows 12.1 PPG to opposing tight ends, ranked 14th in True Matchup Rank. Although he already boasts a respectable 15.6% target share (TE13), Dulcich could see an uptick in usage while teammate Jerry Jeudy is sidelined with an ankle injury. The Broncos' third-round pick is in an excellent position to exceed his low-end TE1 ECR.
Matt Ward
RB: Isiah Pacheco (KC)
Isiah Pacheco was a popular waiver add at RB this week and there is certainly a lot to be optimistic about. Over the course of the season, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has led the Kansas City Chiefs in total touches with 86. His 6 total TDs are tied with Mecole Hardman for 2nd on the team. Despite that, he has been phased out of the offense. Helaire’s best game of the season was in Week 4 when he ran 19 times for 92 yards and a TD while playing 52% of offensive snaps. Since then, he has seen a consistent drop in both carries and snap percentage. Over the past two weeks, he only has 4 rushing attempts and 21 snaps played. Jerick Mckinnon has been the lead receiving back, drawing 32 targets. That leaves Pacecho with Helaire’s rushing role, which he should continue to dominate as the statistically better RB this year.
Per Next Gen Stats, Pacheco’s RYOE per attempt of 0.95 is 11th in the league while Helaire’s -0.44 is 4th worst amongst RBs with 55 or more rushing attempts this season. The Chiefs look like they are finally cutting their losses. Pacheco may not be in the long-term plans as a 7th round pick, despite his talent, but he is becoming the lead RB in the short-term.
Broto’s True Matchup Rank lists the Chargers as the 5th best RB matchup for fantasy football and they are more susceptible against RBs rushing rather than catching passes. This places Pacheco in a much better spot than Mckinnon but both can find success in their separate roles.
There is a reasonable fear that Pacheco is only going to get a large amount of touches in blowout wins. His four games with 8+ carries were in the 4 games where the Chiefs beat opponents by 10 or more points. Let me put those fears to rest. Pacheco is playing a higher percentage of snaps at this point in the season and if any team were to beat opponents by multiple scores each week, it would be the Chiefs.
Furthermore, Pacheco’s Week 10 performance was incredibly rare and a positive sign for the future. He wasn’t simply getting garbage time play. Pacheco handled a whopping 94.1% of RB rush attempts. No Chiefs RB had exceeded 70% of backfield rush attempts in a game all season before Week 10. This was also done in a game where Pacheco lost a fumble early on.
Pacheco has a tougher path to elite fantasy football games with his lack of targets but he is emerging as the lead back on the best offense in football and gets a great matchup to top it off. He is set to exceed projections this week against the Chargers.
Themi Michalakis
QB: Daniel Jones (NYG)
The Detroit Lions defense has been allowing a flood of fantasy points to the quarterback position and they are showing no signs of letting up after allowing Justin Fields to torch them for 40 fantasy points in Week 10. The Lions are allowing a whopping 23 points per game to opposing QBs and have allowed five different top 5 weekly finishes to the position. Jalen Hurts, Carson Wentz, Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Fields all finished in the top 5 when they played against the Detroit Lions. The matchup has been incredible and quarterbacks are constantly exploiting it.
The Lions currently rank as the 5th best True Matchup for quarterbacks, allowing 31.9% Points over Average. That is an amazing opportunity in and of itself but to make things even better for Daniel Jones’ fantasy managers, the Lions are especially awful against rushing quarterbacks, allowing nearly 7 points per game on the ground to the position. That is by far the best matchup for a rushing quarterback, as it currently sits at an incredible 544% Points over Average. Now take a quarterback with underrated rushing ability and put him in a matchup like this and what do you get? Vanilla Vick.
Daniel Jones has rushed for 65+ yards on 3 separate occasions this seasons and managed to score a rushing touchdown in two of three games, including a two score game against Chicago. In those three games, Jones averaged over 21 PPG and finished as a top 8 QB twice. He is clearly capable of flaunting high quality fantasy performances, particularly when he is able to make magic happen in the run game. With an extremely exploitable matchup like the Lions and his ability to have a big day on the ground, Daniel Jones is a locked-in top 12 starting option this week.
Boyd Armstrong
BUSTS
TE: Hayden Hurst (CIN)
At first glance, Hayden Hurst appears to have an exploitable matchup on paper. The Bengals are on the road to face the Steelers in an AFC North clash of bitter division rivals. The Steelers secondary has struggled all season, allowing 263.9 passing yards per game, and will now be without all-pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (appendectomy). The current averages do not tell the complete narrative. Broto Fantasy’s own Themi Michalakis (@GridironGreek) found a glaring discrepancy in the Steelers' defense rooted in a small yet important sample size. The return of elite edge rusher T.J. Watt redefines the Steelers' defense as a disruptive force with premier pass-rushing abilities.
Steelers Defensive EPA/Play Week 1:
-0.174, 6th
Weeks 2-9 (no Watt):
0.129, 31st
Week 10 (Watt return):
-0.272, 1st
Hurst has posted a respectable season thus far but is nowhere near a must-start option in a questionable defensive matchup. The Bengals tight end is averaging 8.9 PPG (TE13) this season, exceeding double-digit fantasy points only once in his last four contests. Hurst has a target share of 14.5% (TE17) with an 18.5% target rate (TE24), putting the veteran tight end firmly in the touchdown-or-bust territory. As bad as the unit has been as a whole, the Steelers' defense has done well at stifling the tight end position. They are 27th in True Matchup Rank to the position, allowing 8.1 PPG with a Points Over Average rating of -23.2%. Hurst will need to find the endzone, perhaps on several occasions, in order to return value in fantasy lineups this week.
Matt Ward
WR: Diontae Johnson (PIT)
Diontae Johnson has yet to record a single game inside the WR1 tier, with just one lonely game inside of the top-24 wide receivers. The Steelers' top wideout enters Week 11 with zero touchdowns to his credit this season, averaging a meager 10.5 PPG (WR41). Managers continue to hold out hope for Johnson as his 26.1% target share (WR16) and 25.2% target rate (WR25) suggest the veteran wideout still possesses an elite ability to earn opportunities. Unfortunately, the value of those opportunities has proven to be virtually worthless, evidence-backed by Kenny Pickett’s 36th-ranked True Throw Value of 0.304. What this is essentially telling us is that Pickett would need to target Johnson three times just for his receiver to earn a single fantasy point. Couple Johnson’s continuously declining production with an intimidating defensive matchup against the Bengals and you get a recipe for disappointment. The Bengals' defense concedes 23.5 PPG to opposing wideouts, ranked 18th in True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average rating of -3.0%. Johnson has not been able to overcome the softest of matchups this season. Managers should have no confidence in the fourth-year wideout rising to the occasion against a difficult defensive opponent.
Matt Ward
RB: D’Onta Foreman (CAR)
It is hard to bench a player with three 110+ rushing yard performances in four games, I get that. I do not think that Forman is a sit in most situations, however, his bust potential is sky high and his production is a product of excellent timing. Foreman has played two games against the Atlanta Falcons in this span, receiving massive workloads in each. The Falcons are 26th against the run in EPA and are the 5th best matchup for RBs - just running, not receiving - in Broto’s True Matchup Rank. Chuba Hubbard was eased in last week when he finally returned but a rise in usage is very likely at some point in the season. Foreman’s only other noteworthy game this season was a 15 carry, 118 yard performance against the Bucs when Hubbard went down. 94 of those yards came on 3 plays in the final drives of the game. Foreman can keep breaking off big runs but it is not something you want to bank on for future success.
Foreman’s Week 9 performance against the Bengals is an indication of how things can go terribly wrong. The Bengals are the 5th toughest matchup rushing RBs based on True Matchup Rank and boy did they slow him down. Foreman managed just 23 yards on 7 carries in that game. He saw some usage as a receiver but only caught 2 of his 3 targets for a combined -2 receiving yards. The Panthers all but abandoned the run after going down 35-0 by halftime and they are set for something close to a repeat this week.
The Baltimore Ravens are red hot coming off their bye week and are favored by double digits at home. They are also the 6th toughest rushing matchup per True Matchup Rank. The odds are simply mounted against Foreman.
Barring a TD, Foreman’s stat line will look much closer to his terrible game against the Bengals than it will his games against the lowly Atlanta Falcons.
Themi Michalakis
QB: Derek Carr (LV)
The Denver Broncos defense has been a woodchipper for opposing fantasy QBs all season long. Through the first nine games of the season, the Broncos have forced 7 weekly finishes at QB24 or below. That means 78% of the time opposing QBs have not even finished as a QB2 on the week. That is the definition of shutdown. Obviously with performances like these, the Broncos are one of the worst True Matchups for quarterbacks, sitting comfortably as the 2nd toughest opponent, allowing -35% Points over Average with a crushing 10 points per game allowed to the position.
This will not be Derek Carr’s first rodeo facing off against the Broncos in 2022. Looking back to his first matchup does little to inspire fantasy managers’ confidence in starting him as Carr had a horrible fantasy performance as he threw for less than 200 yards and finished with zero touchdowns, resulting in 11.5 points and a QB25 finish on the week. That is a league losing performance and that is exactly what the Denver Broncos defense has been forcing out of quarterbacks all season long. With no Darren Waller, no Hunter Renfrow and the Broncos being most susceptible against the run, I anticipate the Raiders to run the ball a lot with Josh Jacobs, just like they did in Week four when he had nearly 30 rushing attempts.
If I am a Carr manager, I am taking a look at the waiver wire, making a move, and avoiding starting Derek Carr at all costs.
Boyd Armstrong
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.