We went 3-1 in Week 10 after a missed facemask call derailed the Eagles’ chances of covering. I cannot complain too much because bad calls have probably saved some of these picks in the past and missed calls a part of the game. Nonetheless, this upcoming slate is a bit scary in the underdogs department and I hate banking on mostly favorites. There are still several high probability spreads to tackle though. Now 15-3 over the last several weeks. Let’s dive in.
Game of the Week
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills (-8) O/U: 49.5
Themi’s Teaser: Bills -2
We aren’t getting a snow game, folks. That might be for the better. The Buffalo Bills don’t have a star RB like Nick Chubb who can carry defenders under 6 feet of snow as he scores an 80-yard TD. Buffalo’s offense is 29th in EPA when running the ball. This is a team that succeeds with Josh Allen both through the air and on the ground. Despite some recent struggles, Allen is 3rd in EPA + CPOE composite. Browns QB Jacoby Brissett is no slouch, though. He’s 8th in EPA+CPOE and the Browns offense ranks 15th in dropback EPA. They are a surprisingly competent dual-threat attack with Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and Donovan Peoples-Jones catching passes. There is no question that this offense is talented and probably being underappreciated outside of Cleveland. The real issue is the defensive difference.
The Bills keep games close, even when they lose. Their three losses were decided by a combined 8 points. Putting these losses under the microscope reveals what you need to best this Buffalo team. The Jets won at home thanks to an incredible defensive performance that limited the Bills to 17 points. They have had a solid enough offense and played without too many key mistakes. The Dolphins won at home thanks to some Bills mishaps and one of the best aerial attacks in the league. Tua Tagovailoa is having an incredible season, no thanks to WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (sarcasm). The Vikings do not have a high end defense and it showed against Buffalo but they are similar to the Dolphins in that they have an incredible offense. The Vikings also took advantage of Josh Allen’s mistakes. Minnesota forced 3 turnovers in regulation and turned them into 12 points.
The Cleveland Browns have a good offense but their passing game is not at the level of Miami or Minnesota and their defense does not even sniff the Jets’ jockstraps. Cleveland has the 31st best defense in both DVOA and EPA. The Bills rank among the top for both. The Bills’ run defense is weaker than their pass defense, though, and I expect Cleveland to take advantage. It is just hard to trust Cleveland to hang on to secure a win.
Cleveland is coming off of a bye and while the neutral site helps Buffalo’s passing game, it could look more like a Browns home game given their proximity to Detroit. The Bills are a better offense and significantly better defense. There are enough matchup concerns to bring Buffalo down to a win by a field goal, but sure enough, secure the win.
Underdog of the Week
New York Jets (+3.5) @ New England Patriots O/U: 37.5
Themi’s Teaser: Jets +9.5
Jeff Hanisch - USA Today Sports
New England is playing some of the best defense in the league and excels against the pass. Their offense is a bit lackluster. In their 26-3 win over the Colts, the Patriots only scored one offensive TD and gained the other 19 points by field goals and a defensive TD. Don’t misinterpret this as me disqualifying defense and special teams. I understand that scoring more points than your opponent matters no matter how they come together but defensive TDs aren’t consistently replicable and the Patriots offense simply is not scoring TDs very often.
The Pats are tied with the Steelers for the 4th lowest red zone TD conversion rate at 46.15%. The Jets are 13th best in the league. The Jets also average slightly more points per drive - 1.89 to New England’s 1.86 - but the Patriots do allow the 2nd fewest points per drive, with the Jets ranking 9th.
The last time these teams faced off, the Patriots won 22-17 on the road. Zach Wilson only completed 20 of his 41 pass attempts and threw 3 INTs. The run game was nonexistent but that was the team’s first game since losing Breece Hall for the season. Michael Carter got the start, splitting carries with James Robinson, whom the Jets had just traded for. The Patriots executed a great game plan in the 2nd half as they outscored the Jets 16-7. The run game is becoming more coherent and the Patriots are only a middle-of-the-pack team against the run. They also allow the 9th highest rushing success rate in the league, coincidentally 0.1% behind the Jets.
Both of these teams are coming off a bye so there’s no noteworthy rest advantage. The Patriots are likely to get a close win with home field advantage. Regardless, two great defenses face off in a game with one of the lowest projected point totals all season. These six points are going to be massive and I trust the Jets offense to score enough for this to hit.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) @ Indianapolis Colts O/U: 45.5
Themi’s Teaser: Eagles -0.5
The Indianapolis Colts are not good. You can maybe argue that they have a decent defense and some nice offensive weapons but there is nothing to brag about. While they just beat the Raiders, a bottom-5 defense and by far the worst passing defense in the league, the Colts are still the worst offense by DVOA and the 2nd worst by EPA. X-Factors like Jonathon Taylor can only do so much. Indy has barely managed to score against other good defenses like the Broncos, Patriots, Titans and Commanders. They may have stifled the Chiefs once but that is not something you can bank on. The Eagles are one of the few teams in the league that excels both offensively and defensively.
Yes the Eagles are coming off of their first loss of the season, but it unlikely for the mistakes of last week to continue into Week 11. The Eagles abandoned the run but still looked powerful when passing, despite the loss, which is scary for teams around the league. The loss of TE Dallas Goedert leaves a void to be filled but their WRs are still elite.
Las Vegas found success on both sides of the ball against the Colts but just could not score when it mattered most. I don’t expect the Colts to score as much or as often as they did last week and I don’t expect the Eagles to get cute and abandon the run before they can even get it started.
San Francisco 49ers (-8) @ Arizona Cardinals O/U: 43.5
Themi’s Teaser: 49ers -2
Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford were out? Fooled me. The Arizona Cardinals trounced the Rams 27-17 last week. Big whoop. John Wolford at QB, a ragtag group of RBs, and Cooper Kupp getting negative receiving yards before an unfortunate injury isn’t a game you look back on with pride. The Cardinals obviously deserve credit for winning but this doesn’t impress me for the future. That this Rams offense still managed to score 17 points is much more telling.
If Kyler Murray is forced to sit again, we should not worry too much. Colt McCoy is a seasoned vet who is lucky enough to get an assortment of weapons at his disposal. DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore lead a receiving group that might get Hollywood Brown back by Monday night. James Conner is a capable RB and rookie Trey McBride could find mild success taking over for Zach Ertz at TE. Not all hope is lost.
The main issue is that the 49ers feature an even better group at all of those positions and have a QB you can trust. Jimmy Garoppolo is 7th in EPA+CPOE and the offense ranks 11th overall. The 49ers are a top-5 defense and the Cardinals, as solid as they are, just can’t be trusted to overcome that. Colt McCoy had a good game last week and it’s hard to tell how this offense will operate this week with him. I can’t back the Cardinals simply because they have good receivers and an element of surprise with a backup QB. The 49ers are plain and simple the better team and the assumption is you win these bets more often than you lose. Better teams tend to beat lesser opponents.
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.