Another great week for the ladies and gentlemen rocking with SchizPicks this season! Colts and Patriots went under, the Jets won outright against the Bills, Justin Jefferson found the endzone in a narrow victory for Minnesota and Raheem Mostert did the same for Miami in their victory over Chicago! Saints ML was the only loss from our official Game Picks. That is my kind of Sunday!
Unfortunately, the fraudulent Packers prevented us from a huge day, failing to get Aaron Jones into the endzone against Detroit while also failing to look remotely competitive in a 15-9 loss. JuJu had a big game catching 10 balls for 88 yards but fell just short of the endzone, robbing us from that TD, as well. All in all, it was a great Sunday with another nice profit! Before we get into Week 10, let’s do a quick recap from the first half.
First Half Recap: What Did We Learn?
It is more profitable to bet underdogs outright on the moneyline than it is to take the spread. This was our system watch for the first several weeks. Favorites were covering OR underdogs were winning outright roughly 80% of the time in the first half of the season. The few exceptions were inter-division matchups with spreads larger than one score and the Detroit Lions. Nearly all other matchups fell nicely into this mold at a very high percentage.
The NFC East is 21-11-1 ATS this season. Obviously as we see more inter-division matchups this will regress to the mean, but this is certainly worth following. The NFC East schedule matrix landed them arguably the two most porous divisions in the NFL- the AFC South and the NFC North. The Eagles are legitimate contenders, the Cowboys are a solid squad, the Giants are finding ways to win and the Commanders are keeping games close. This is a division to target!
Other teams to target against the spread are the Tennessee Titans, Cincinnati Bengals, and the New York Jets, who are all 6-3 ATS. Atlanta too is 6-3 ATS, but after a 5-0,start, I fear regression is already reeling its ugly head. Teams to avoid ATS are Tampa Bay (2-6-1), the LA Rams (2-5-1), the Packers (3-6), and Kansas City (3-5). In the first few weeks, these teams made up a large chunk of the double edged sword that were favorites not covering including several examples of the underdogs winning outright. All four of these teams were among the top Super Bowl odds coming into the season and will likely continue to see inflated lines due to the veteran quarterbacks at the helm. The Chiefs are the only team of these four that I see picking up some steam and being profitable in the second half.
True Matchup Ranking is an excellent way to pick TD Scorers, coupled with point total projections from Vegas. A high scoring point total gives you more opportunities to pick a winner. True Matchup Ranking will show you the holes in each team's defenses to find a likely method of scoring. After that, it is a matter of selecting the right player that fits the role. If you still do not know what True Matchup Ranking is, download the Fantasy Football by Broto App for free to find out and access this cheat code!
Week 10 Game Lines and Wagers
Seahawks ML @ Buccaneers (+130)
The Seahawks have quietly been a wagon. At 6-3 both ATS and actual record, Seattle is riding hot on a 4 game win streak heading into Munich, Germany to face a Tampa Bay team barely keeping their heads above water. Tampa is a league worst 2-6-1 ATS and frankly looks like a lost football team. If it wasn’t for the Rams handing them the game in the final seconds last week, they would have been held to 9 points in another loss. Brady just looks off throwing the ball and Leonard Fournette seems to be back to his old inefficient self. I will ride the hot hand for plus money in Geno Smith and the Seahawks.
Vikings ML @ Bills (+152)
The Vikings deserve some flowers. They are 7-1 even if it hasn’t always been pretty. Their only loss coming to the 8-0 Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota is not a team to gloss over on the schedule. With Josh Allen trending towards out, I don’t see Case Keenum having enough left in the tank to lift Buffalo over his former team. I like this value for Minnesota. If Josh Allen is declared healthy, I will likely play the points for the Vikings if the line moves significantly, as it should.
Titans -2.5 vs Broncos (-110)
The Tenessee Titans are 6-3 ATS and the Broncos offense has been awful. Denver’s defense has been solid in all facets, but they are only 19th against the RB on the ground, which is middle of the pack. This should be good enough for King Henry to continue to do his thing and help Tennessee control the clock. Expect another slow boring game with Tennessee on top.
Anytime TD/Moneyline Parlay
Saquon Barkley Anytime TD/New York to win (???)
Not only are the Giants a better team than the Houston Texans but they are at home, coming off a bye week, and Houston is the number one True Matchup Ranking for RBs. I also like the points here for NYG (-5.5) but the juice here should be better. Books are holding back the lines from us for now but I will likely be on this line no matter where it comes out (likely +150 or better).
Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD/San Francisco to Win (-115)
SFGate
The Chargers have started to gain some traction back on offense, so the 7 point spread in this game scares me a bit. The Chargers are, however, the 5th best matchup for opposing running backs and SF has not been shy about utilizing their new star. I expect CMC to find the endzone in this game and SF to earn their 5th victory. By what margin remains to be seen!
TD Scorers
Evan Engram (+350)
This is a fun throw in that is worth a sprinkle. KC is 7th best in True Matchup Ranking against the TE so this should be a good matchup for the TE/WR hybrid Engram. This matchup is the highest projected point total of the week so there should be opportunity.
Fade: Jalen Hurts
As is the Broto masochistic way, it pains me to end this article on a sad note. Hurts is not running the ball as much as he was to start the season as he has progressed as a pocket passer. His rapport with his receivers improves on a weekly basis and I do not want to keep throwing money at an old trend. RIP to this sweet line. You will be missed!
As always folks, hit me up if you have any other plays you like! Let’s rage.
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-Mike “Schiz” Schissel
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.