SLEEPERS
QB: Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
tigernet.com
Through the first nine games of the season, Trevor Lawrence has five weekly finishes as a QB1 and four as a low-end QB2, where he finished outside of the top 20. He has been very hit-or-miss for fantasy managers but the majority of his misses were against incredibly tough matchups for quarterbacks. Aside from Week 1 where he finished as QB22 against the Commanders, Lawrence has only finished outside of the top 12 QBs in games in which he faced a top-tier defense. Here’s a look at the defenses that the second-year quarterback has faced during his QB2 fantasy performances and where they rank for Points Over Average.
Denver - 32nd POA
Philadelphia - 31st POA
Houston - 27th POA
Washington - 15th POA
Three out of four of these are very strong defenses that are increasingly stingy toward fantasy quarterbacks this season. Lawrence's low-end QB2 performances are to be expected against defenses of this caliber as he continues to develop.
On the flip side, Lawrence has taken advantage of poor defensive matchups with week-winning production. He has five games this season within the QB1 threshold. All five of those games came against an opponent outside of the top 15 in defensive Points Over Average. Lawrence is averaging 20.0 PPG in said matchups, lighting up the fantasy scoreboards with elite production. He’s hit incredible highs and showcased his huge fantasy ceiling by finishing as the QB3 and QB4 overall during weeks three and six, respectively. In those two games, he averaged 25.0 PPG and had 3 touchdowns in each. He carries major fantasy upside in this Jacksonville offense and has top-12 potential whenever he touches the field.
This week's matchup between the Jaguars and the Chiefs is set to be a high-scoring affair according to betting lines, as the AFC clash currently has the highest projected over/under scoring total (51.5) of the Week 10 slate. A presumed shootout would set an excellent game script for Lawrence’s fantasy outlook. The Jaguars will likely be forced to play from behind for most of the contest, allowing Lawrence to sling the rock at a higher rate while opening up the potential for some big plays on the ground with his underrated rushing ability. There is no reason to fade Lawrence this week as he faces the Chiefs' defense who ranks 11th in True Matchup rank, allowing 14.9% Points Over Average and 19.5 PPG to opposing quarterbacks. A susceptible defense plus a high-scoring game script should equal big fantasy points. Yet another QB1 finish appears to be in store for Lawrence this week.
Matt Ward
RB: Jamaal Williams (DET)
There are few “backup” running backs in fantasy football that have legitimate RB1 upside even when the starter is healthy. Jamaal Williams fits that bill. The Lions have bubble-wrapped D’Andre Swift despite the young star-running back clearing injury reports. Instead, the team has allowed Williams to shoulder a workhorse role as he garnered 24 rushing attempts for 81 yards on a 61.0% snap share in Week 9. Swift, on the other hand, played just ten snaps (16.0%) with only two carries. It appears that the Lions are content with using their bruising veteran to plow through opposing defenses with a team-leading opportunity share. Williams brings his high-volume role into a Week 10 road matchup against the Bears who have allowed 147.2 rushing yards per game to their opponents this season and ranked 30th overall. The Bears' defense is the 4th-best matchup for fantasy running backs in our True Matchup Ranks, conceding 24.6 PPG which equates to 29.4% over the expected average for the position. Williams is a serviceable RB2 on any given Sunday. Against the Bears, he possesses matchup-winning upside.
Matt Ward
WR: Chase Claypool (CHI)
Chase Claypool was thrust into a high-usage role for the Bears immediately after landing with the Franchise following his trade departure from the Steelers. The third-year wideout earned six targets (21.4%) in his first game with the franchise despite playing just 35.0% of the offensive snaps. It is vastly apparent that the Bears are desperate for capable receivers, leaving Claypool as an intriguing option based on projected volume alone. Justin Fields has yet to throw for more than 250 yards in a single game this season but has consistently increased his pass attempts over the last four weeks and should continue to follow that trend now that he has a big-bodied outside threat to draw coverage off of his secondary reads. Claypool’s snap percentages and route participation will continue to increase at a rapid rate as he acclimates to a new offense. His next matchup should have fantasy managers salivating. The Bears draw the Lions in Week 10, a team that is giving up 31.4 PPG to opposing wideouts, ranked dead last in passing yards (427.3) and points allowed (29.3) per contest. Claypool is staring down the barrel of an increased opportunity share against a cupcake matchup with a red-hot quarterback at the helm. Positive production is on the horizon for the “Canadian Sensation.”
Matt Ward
TE: Greg Dulcich (DEN)
The TE1 throne in Denver that was seemingly reserved for Albert Okwuebunam has been snatched away by rookie tight end Greg Dulcich and it’s looking like he has no signs of slowing down his production. After missing the first five games of the season from a pre-season injury, Dulcich has immediately established himself as a leading receiving threat on the Broncos' offense.
In his very first NFL game, Dulcich had 40+ receiving yards and one touchdown, finishing as the TE9 on the week. That’s one heck of a way to make your debut. The following game, the rookie tight end had six receptions on nine targets for 51 receiving yards. Dulcich upped the production in his third contest as a pro, torching the Jaguars' defense for 87 receiving yards on four catches. Dulcich has finished inside the TE1 tier during all three of his NFL starts, averaging 12.1 PPR PPG (TE6). Dulcich is off to a terrific hot streak to start his career, becoming everything Albert O drafters were hoping for.
This hot streak should only keep extending as Dulcich and the Broncos are facing the Titans this week, who boast a defense that has been susceptible to tight ends this season. The Titans rank 6th overall in True Matchup rank, allowing 44.7% Points Over Average and 13.6 PPG to the position. The matchup and growing role bode very well for Dulcich and the managers taking a shot at him. He is in the perfect position to continue his breakout and produce a 4th consecutive TE1 weekly finish.
Boyd Armstrong
BUSTS
QB: Aaron Rodgers (GB)
bellyupsports.com
Last week was the wildest game that I’ve ever seen from Aaron Rodgers. Unfortunately for his fantasy managers, it looks like it will get worse before it gets better. In a game where the Packers were shockingly trailing, Rodgers threw three interceptions against a league-worst Lions defense. The last time the defending MVP threw three interceptions in a game was five seasons ago, dating all the way back to Week 15 of 2017 against the Panthers. Rodgers has earned a reputation during his career for taking great care of the football and throwing a limited number of interceptions. Surprisingly, he has already thrown for more interceptions (7) in nine games this season than he had thrown in an entire season since 2016. He’s not taking care of the ball like he used to, resulting in more turnovers and losses for the Packers. His errant delivery and lack of ball security have caused his weekly production to take a major hit. Rodgers is averaging 14.7 PPG (QB22), marking the lowest average of his hall-of-fame career since he became the starter for the franchise.
The turnovers are not the only thing to blame for Rodgers’ dwindling fantasy production. Another major issue he’s facing is the lack of capable receiving weapons that he’s working with. The gumptious gunslinger went from chucking the ball to prime Davante Adams whenever he needed a big play, to having to target Allen Lazard, Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson. The lack of top talent has been increasingly noticeable in not only Rodgers’ fantasy production but the Packers' offense as a whole.
Now, heading into Week 10, Rodgers and the Packers are facing the vaunted Cowboys defense, who have been eating quarterbacks alive all season. The Cowboys currently sit 29th Overall in True Matchup Rank, allowing -29.7% Points Over Average and a stifling 12.9 PPG to opposing quarterbacks. A negative differential in expected points is a terrible prospect for a quarterback that averages a mere 14.7 PPG. Rodgers will also be forced to play with an even deeper dearth of pass-catching talent, as Romeo Doubs is dealing with a high ankle injury without a timetable for return/. The writing is on the wall for Rodgers and the Packers offense this weekend and it does not spell a positive story. I would be looking to pivot to a waiver-wire pickup wherever I can as a Rodgers manager.
Boyd Armstrong
RB: Devin Singletary (BUF)
The Bills' offense may be entering dark and unfamiliar territory as the team could be without Josh Allen in their Week 10 matchup. The MVP candidate is dealing with an elbow sprain that has an underlying chance to be more significant than the team and media are leading us to believe. The loss of Allen would mean a downgrade for every member of the Bills' offense. Singletary’s coveted role as the Bills leading running back would hold much less value if Case Keenum is named the starting signal-caller. Keenum’s presence could increase Singletary’s target ceiling with check-downs if the Bills are met with a neutral game script. Unfortunately, any perceived increase in volume with Keenum under center would be coupled with a detrimental decrease in the weighted value of said touches. None of these surface factors instill confidence in Singletary as a must-start option this week. His defensive matchup increases that doubt. The Bills face off against the Vikings who allow a mere 17.3 combined points to opposing backfields, ranking 28th overall in True Matchup Ranking as one of the toughest opponents for running backs. The Vikings have a defensive Points Over Average rating of -16.3% for the running back position as the unit has consistently snuffed the production of countless competitors. Singletary has averaged just 9.6 PPR PPG over his last four contests, none of which have been as formidable against the run as the Vikings. I am heavily downgrading Singletary whether or not Allen is healthy enough to suit up based on his current downfall and difficult defensive matchup.
Matt Ward
WR: Curtis Samuel (WSH)
The Commanders travel to face the Eagles in a matchup of two division rivals with polar opposite trajectories this season. The Eagles are the last undefeated team in the NFL, sitting atop the NFC East and NFC Conference as odds-on favorites to make a Super Bowl appearance. The Commanders are overperforming at 4-5 but sit in last place in the NFC East as they struggle to find an identity on the offensive side of the ball. Curtis Samuel has become a household name for the Commanders' offensive attack, leading the team in receptions (45), targets (66), and touchdowns (3). Unfortunately, Samuel has begun a drastic slide down the production ladder as his early-season heroics have since been met by inconsistent performances. Prior to his Week 9 outburst against the Vikings, Samuel had not finished inside the top 24 players at the position for seven consecutive games. The sixth-year wideout averages an unimpressive 21.0% target share (WR32), earning a target on just 22.4% of his routes (WR41). The high-volume opportunities Samuel needs to produce will be hard to come by against an intimidating Eagles secondary. The Eagles' defense is amongst the best in the league at stemming the production of wide receivers. Samuel’s opponents allow a mere 23.7 combined PPG to opposing wideouts, 11.2% below the expected average for the position, ranked 28th overall in True Matchup Ranking. Samuel earns his opportunities on a low depth of target, needing monstrous yards after the catch to support his inability to separate on deep routes. The Eagles' defense ranks 10th overall in yards after the catch allowed per reception at a staggered 4.89 yards per catch. The Commanders are going to have a tough time finding yards and points against an overpowered matchup, leaving Samuel as a bench candidate this week.
Matt Ward
TE: Foster Moreau (LV)
With Darren Waller officially hitting the IR, lots of managers seem to have boosted expectations for Foster Moreau’s fantasy production. Aside from the great matchup against the Colts this week, nothing else from Moreau should point towards confidence. Managers are ignoring the narrative surrounding Moreau’s role. Waller has not played a healthy game since Week 4 against the Broncos. Moreau, on the other hand, has had ample time and opportunity to turn into a quality fantasy option but has been unable to break the proverbial glass ceiling. In his three games played since Waller’s injury, Moreau has had weekly finishes as TE22, TE21, and TE26, respectively. The Former LSU product has yet to sniff anywhere close to a low-end TE1 fantasy finish, despite seeing over six targets per game in several contests as the Raiders' leading tight end.
If a three-game sample size seems too small to draw conclusions from, we can look back toward the end of last season when Waller went down with another injury and was forced to miss five straight games. Immediately Moreau became a hot name to grab off the waiver wire, with all the hope in the world. Unfortunately, for those fantasy managers who picked him up, Moreau was a disappointment. Across those five games, he had 3 weekly finishes outside the top 24 tight ends and was locked out of the endzone in every game with zero touchdowns in that span.
In the past two seasons alone, Moreau has had eight games to prove himself without Waller and he’s sadly been an inconsistent fantasy option for managers to lean on. He’s averaged a measly 5.0 PPG in these eight games without Waller, finishing nowhere near the high-upside expectations that fantasy managers are carrying with them as we head into the Raiders' Week 10 matchup against the Colts. Given Foster Moreau’s track history in games as the top tight end on the roster, his expectations for this week should be reeled in and I’d be much more comfortable pivoting to a different streaming option.
Boyd Armstrong
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.