Attempting to predict outcomes in the NFL can seem fairly easy when looking at it from a macro view. Anyone who follows the league can point out that one team may have a good offense and their opponent may have a bad defense, but if that's all there was to it, the exhilaration we feel from watching football every Sunday would cease to exist. When you zoom in on any game you’ll see the individual battles taking place all over the field. These are often where the real story is told, so let's dive into some of the Pro Football Focus data on matchups between Wide Receivers and Defensive Backs that could really tip the scales in Week Ten.
Golden Opportunity WR of the Week
Jerry Jeudy vs Tennessee Titans
If there was ever a week for Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos to live up to their off-season hype, Week 10 should finally be that week, and it should come on the back of Jerry Jeudy.
Since Jeudy is in the slot 69% of the time, PFF projects he will have the pleasure of being covered by Tennessee's Joshua Kalu for 30 snaps. Of all defenders who lead their team in slot snaps, Kalu has one of the lowest PFF coverage grades at 44.7. It does not stop there, Kalu is also giving up a reception an astounding 92% of the time that he is targeted. Perfect for a guy like Jeudy, who is gaining 1.77 yards per route run but only catching 57% of his targets. PFF is giving this matchup an advantage score of 100.0. All Russ has to do is look Jerry Jeudy’s way and good things are going to happen. Broncos Country, Lets Ride!
‘Better Luck Next Time’ WR of the Week
Michael Gallup vs Green Bay Packers
Every time I see Michael Gallup I just think, now here is a guy (Cris Collinsworth voice) that people keep getting so excited about, even though the numbers have never matched the hype.
Gallup typically will excel in a good matchups and underperform otherwise. This is what has lead to his 63.7 PFF grade and rather mediocre average statistical averages on the season, such as a 55% catch rate. Gallup plays almost exclusively on the outside and his snaps are split fairly equally on the right and left of the formation.
This means that for at least half of Gallup’s snaps he is going to be covered by Jaire Alexander. Despite the Packers floundering, Jaire has an 80.5 PFF coverage grade and is rarely being thrown at. The two games he was targeted most were against the Jets (7) and Bills (5) and he allowed only 3 catches for 31 yards combined in those games. Time for Gallup to gallup to your bench.
Dogfight of the Week
DK Metcalf vs Jamel Dean
David Reginek
This matchup is about as on the nose as you can be when using the term “dogfight”. The vast majority of NFL cornerbacks are at an immediate athletic disadvantage when covering Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf. In Week 10, however, the fans should get their popcorn ready as Jamel Dean gets ready to step up to the task.
Jamel Dean rarely will shadow a player. Luckily, he is lined up on the defensive right (offensive left) for 93% of his snaps, where DK Metcalf also spends the majority of his time. Dean is slightly smaller than DK but can absolutely match his speed and may even be more physical. From a numbers perspective, this is an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. Dean is only giving up a measly 0.3 yards per route in his coverage while DK is averaging almost 2 yards per route run. This is the biggest gap in this statistic of any individual matchup in week 10. In a game Vegas expects to be a nail biter, this matchup may just be the deciding factor.
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By Taren Caravella
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.