We are on fire! 12-2 over the last several weeks and a perfect 4-for-4 in the games this past week bring our total win percentage to 65.5% on the season. With the regular season at the half-way point there’s still plenty of time to keep winning and increasing that win percentage! Reminder that these are options for two-team, six-point teasers.
Game of the Week
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) O/U: 50
Themi’s Teaser: Chiefs -2.5
Things have been a bit too close for comfort for a Kansas City team that should be dominating more games. While the Chiefs beat the Cardinals 44-21 in Week 1, they also lost 17-20 against a Colts team that continues to rank as the worst offense in the league. They also beat the Raiders by only a single point at home but then beat the 49ers 44-23. It is hard to tell which Chiefs team we will get but even a bad KC team is better than the NFL average and the Jaguars are just about average. QB Patrick Mahomes lost his star WR Tyreek Hill in the off-season but still ranks 2nd in EPA+CPOE composite (just behind Tua Tagovaila ,who coincidentally gained Hill in the off-season). The Chiefs offense ranks 1st in EPA/Play and DVOA and should not have many issues against a Jaguars defense that is in the middle of the pack in most defensive categories.
The Chiefs are below-average on defense. They are 21st in EPA/Play which, for context, is on par with the Panthers, and rank 19th and 18th against the pass and rush, respectively. Jacksonville has an opportunity to hit KC with both a potent run game and a decent passing attack. Despite criticisms against QB Trevor Lawrence, the Jags are 7th in dropback EPA and Lawrence is 13th amongst QBs in EPA+CPOE composite. That is just ahead of Derek Carr, who gave the Chiefs trouble a few weeks ago. This does not mean the Chiefs are out of luck or in danger of losing this teaser but I would temper expectations on the current spread and put this in a better spot by teasing it.
I’m paying up to make this a 7-point teaser. I’d rather have the key number despite the talent chasm between these teams.
Underdog of the Week
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers O/U: 44.5
Themi’s Teaser: Seahawks +8.5
I was tempted to make this my game of the week, a testament to how beautiful this line is. It’s almost too perfect. This game will be played in Munich, the first NFL game ever played in Germany. This is a neutral site and while Brady’s popularity may give the team a slight home-field advantage, the Seahawks’ 12th Man is sure to make an appearance. Former Colts DE and German native Bjorn Werner recently spoke on ESPN and mentioned that the Seahawks and Patriots were dominating the league at the same time that the NFL skyrocketed in popularity in Germany. Expect a lot of Tom Brady and Seahawks fans.
The Seahawks continue to win games and impress on offense. I discussed the Seahawks and QB Geno Smith in-depth in my Week 9 teaser picks and not much has changed. Seattle’s offense ranks 7th in DVOA and 8th in EPA/Play, while Tampa is 17th and 21st, respectively. The defensive side of the ball is the opposite.
The Seahawks are 18th in defensive EPA/Play but DVOA ranks them a respectable 12th. The Bucs are still highly ranked but have slowly stumbled. Once a clear top-five defense, the Bucs are 7th in DVOA and 8th in EPA/Play. QB Tom Brady showed flashes of his younger self in his game-winning drive against the Rams last week but that hasn’t been the norm for the 45-year-old. The Seahawks are facing a challenge closer to their Week 1 win over the Broncos: A team with a top-notch defense but a struggling offense. They won that game by a single point and this should be another close game. I’m already sprinkling some money on Seattle to win but an 8.5-point spread in a 44.5-point game is as perfect as it gets.
New Orleans Saints @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) O/U: 41
Themi’s Teaser: Steelers +7.5
The Steelers are bad but they have managed to keep games close. Of their six losses, only two were blowouts - the Bills and Eagles - arguably the best teams in each conference. Pittsburgh also fell to the Browns 29-17, boosted by a last-second defensive touchdown for Cleveland on a failed lateral attempt. Every other loss has been by six points or fewer.
This team is fresh off of a bye and reigning Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt is set to return. Watt got hurt in Pittsburgh’s Week 1 win over the Bengals and the defense has sorely missed him. After leading the league in sacks last year, the Steelers are averaging the 25th fewest sacks per game and is only managing a QB pressure on 14% of opposing dropbacks, 30th in the league.
The Saints hold an offensive edge here with QB Andy Dalton playing well enough to keep starting over Jameis Winston but injuries continue to plague their season. CB Marshon Lattimore and C Erik McCoy were ruled out while the Steelers remain healthy. This is by far the riskiest pick of the week but Pittsburgh has been the worse offense on the field all year and still manage to keep things close in the end. With Watt back, their scrappy defense should keep them in what should be a low-scoring affair. With Pittsburgh having a week to rest and playing at home the Saints could find it frustrating to get their offense going.
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5) O/U: 45
Themi’s Teaser: Eagles -4.5
Philly Sports Network
If you can believe it, the Washington Commanders are 4-5 and contending for a playoff spot. They won three games in a row before falling to the Vikings but were leading or tied in that game for nearly the entire second half. The advanced stats agree that Washington is not a terrible team and features an above-average defense. The Commanders are 24th in total DVOA - 28th on offense and 14th on defense. They rank about the same in EPA.
When these teams met in Week 3, the Eagles only gained 72 yards on the ground despite combining for 30 attempts. Unphased, Jalen Hurts threw for 340 yards and 3 TDs in the 24-8 win. The Eagles do not have significant injuries, are home this time, and had a bye recently. They are 9-0 and it would be the shock of the year to see them fall now. It would be too optimistic to assume Washington figured them out since their first meeting. The Eagles may eventually struggle if the run game gets stalled but should still win by at least a TD. This is not a traditional teaser spread but the Eagles are a team staring 17-0 in the eyes. Don’t get stuck sweating the 10.5-point spread, tease this down as one of the only other good favorites on the week.
The Fantasy Football by Broto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start/sit tool, player cards, exclusive statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more!
Check out patreon.com/BRotofantasy to access extra episodes, join our community, win prizes, and help keep the app free.
By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.