SLEEPERS
QB: Daniel Jones (NYG)
Daniel Jones (aka Danny Dimes, AKA Vanilla Vick, AKA the discount Konami King) is quietly posting an impressive season both on the field and in the fantasy box scores. Jones ranks as QB9 in PPG averaging 17.3 per contest, upholding his low-volume passing metrics with a top-tier rushing floor. Jones ranks 3rd among QBs in rushing yards (343), averaging 49 yards per game. Usually an errant gunslinger, the Giants quarterback has shown excellent ball security, negating untimely turnovers that cost his team and fantasy managers the chance at victory. Jones has just two interceptions this season, executing head coach Brian Daboll’s game plan perfectly while running the ball down the throat of unsuspecting defenses en route to a 6-1 record. Jones’ projected points total ranks outside of the top-15 quarterbacks in Week 8 despite a consistent floor of high-end rushing production and an excellent matchup against a porous Seahawks secondary. The Seahawks are allowing 23.2 PPG to rival quarterbacks, with a true matchup rank of 3rd overall to the position. They concede 45.2% Points Over Average and are especially susceptible to rushing quarterbacks. The Seahawks give up 7.8 PPG to rushing output alone, equating to 278.6% over the expected average. Jones is averaging 59.5 rushing yards over his last five contests, with only one game in that span below 35 yards on the ground. The fourth-year signal caller is in a prime position to spark a streak with back-to-back QB1 performances against the Seahawks.
Matt Ward
TE: Irv Smith Jr. (MIN)
Irv Smith Jr has flashed all the attributes necessary to become a top-positional asset in fantasy football but has not been able to put up consistent production. The promising young tight end will have the opportunity to put it all together with one of the best possible matchups for his position. The hometown Vikings host the Cardinals in Week 8 after enjoying an extra week to rest and prepare during their Week 7 bye. The Cardinals defense allows the second-most fantasy points on average to opposing tight ends at 15.5 PPG. The team sits 4th overall in Broto’s exclusive True Matchup Rank, with a Points Over Average of 62.3%. Smith’s last performance marked a season-high snap share (69.4%) and route participation (69.8%) while catching all four of his targets for seven yards and one touchdown. Smith’s low yardage total is admittedly uninspiring but his continued uptick in usage is encouraging. The Vikings tight end has received four or more targets in every game since Week 2, creating a safe floor of opportunity for managers to build around if they are looking for a one-week replacement. Smith will have plenty of chances to take advantage of an easily exploitable defensive matchup, making him a serviceable option with top-12 positional upside in Week 8.
Matt Ward
WR: Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG)
ESPN
Before heading into Wan’Dale Robinson’s Week Eight outlook, let’s go for a quick blast into the past. Heading into Week One there seemed to be a multitude of mouths to feed in this Giants offense between Sterling Shepard, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, and Wan’Dale Robinson. There were even rumblings of rookie tight end Daniel Bellinger making a splash in the offense. Fast forward to Week Eight and Robinson is the last one standing. Shepard is on IR, Golladay can’t stay on the field and doesn’t even see the field when healthy, Toney is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Bellinger is eyeing an IR stint. At this point in time, Robinson is the clear-cut best receiving option.
Robinson returned from a multi-week injury in Week Six and played 15 total snaps. With only 15 snaps and 10 routes run, he accrued a team-high 4 targets (14.8% target share) en route to 3 catches for 37 yards and a touchdown. One week later, his snap count shot up to 69% (nice) behind only Marcus Johnson (79%). Robinson once again led the team in target share with a healthy 26.7%, totaling 6 catches on 8 targets for 50 yards. It is evident that Robinson is making his presence known early and often on this depleted Giants team. The Giants and Robinson are poised to square off versus the Seattle Seahawks in Week Eight. They have been a highly favorable matchup for opposing players with the odd exception of the wide receiver position thus far. They are currently the 8th least favorable matchup to opposing wide receivers, allowing 12.6% points below average. While this may sound scary on paper, Robinson will be seeing consistent volume weekly regardless of the matchup. With a lack of true competition and a presence of skill so early in his career, Robinson should be confidently placed in lineups both this week and for the rest of the season.
Nick Beaulieu
Tony Pollard (RB - DAL)
Tony Pollard is often viewed in the highest tier of the “handcuff” running backs but we have rarely been given the chance to see what he can do in an open backfield since Ezekiel Elliott has been able to play through almost every injury he has had during his illustrious NFL career. This week we will see this rare occurrence as Ezekiel Elliott has been all but ruled out with a knee injury.
In the one NFL game that Ezekiel Elliott has missed during his career, Pollard exploded. He had over 130 yards from scrimmage while scoring 2 touchdowns against the 49ers. He finished the week as the overall RB1, perfectly capitalizing on the opportunity he was given with Elliott’s absence.
This is the exact upside that Pollard carries with him into this week as he goes against a horrible Chicago Bears run defense, who are allowing nearly 150 yards rushing per game and have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns on the season. Pollard has already been averaging more scrimmage yards per game than Elliott this season, despite Zeke touching the ball nearly 40 more times, so the idea of him going against the 9th best true matchup for running backs should have fantasy managers incredibly excited. Pollard should be auto locked into lineups this week.
Boyd Armstrong
Halloween Candy: Mint Chocolate
Nothing hits quite like the refreshing surprise of finding a mint chocolate patty in your Halloween treats. Spending hours gorging on the decadent treats of the spooky season can leave your stomach churning and your tastebuds confusing chocolate for sour candy. A pleasant pallet cleanser like mint chocolate is both sweet and functional when diving deep into the snack bag.
Matt Ward
Candy - Baby Ruth
Two years in a row I have chosen Baby Ruth as my sleeper candy and for good reason! This candy bar is clearly the superior version of a much more popular bar - Snickers. While both are a combination of chocolate, peanuts, caramel, and nougat, Baby Ruth quietly does it better. It has a strong peanut presence yet it is soft. It provides a smooth caramel chew without feeling cheap or mass-produced. One bite into a Baby Ruth and I reminisce on the simplistic joy of childhood. The next time you are considering buying a Snickers, try Baby Ruth instead. Snickers satisfies, but Baby Ruth leaves you wanting more.
Nick Beaulieu
Candy - Milky Way
The unsung hero of the chocolate bar world. The perfect combo of caramel, nougat, and a chocolate coating. The cool space name is a bonus too.
Boyd Armstrong
BUSTS
QB: Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
Trevor Lawrence has had a strong start to his sophomore campaign, posting four QB1 performances in the first seven games of the 2022 season. Lawrence is averaging 17.2 PPG (QB10) with back-to-back outings in the top ten scorers at the position (QB7/QB8). His impressive mini-streak of QB1 production looks like it may come to a crashing halt in Week 8 against the Broncos. No quarterback has been able to withstand the heavy pressure and lockdown coverage of the Broncos defense this season. The team allows a stifling 9.5 PPG to opposing quarterbacks with a Points Over Average rating of -41.7%. The Broncos are the worst possible matchup for fantasy quarterbacks with a True Matchup Rank of 32nd overall. They concede merely 8.4 PPG via passing production and a defiant 1.1 PPG to rushing output. The Broncos defense ranks 2nd in total yards allowed (310.1), 2nd in passing yards allowed (173.1) and 3rd in points allowed per game (16.4). No quarterback has surpassed 300 yards against the Broncos' defense this season. Trevor Lawrence has improved vastly from his rookie season but has not done enough to warrant a must-start label against the league’s top-rated defense against the quarterback position.
Matt Ward
TE: Dawson Knox (BUF)
The Bills are fresh off their Week 7 bye and put everyone on notice as to why they are the favorites to win the AFC outright. Although the team is trending up as Super Bowl favorites, one player is trending down as a fantasy bust in Week 8. Dawson Knox has been frustratingly unusable in fantasy lineups this season, averaging 7.2 PPG (TE21) on a 10.5% target share (TE26). A TE1-performance in Week 6 against the Chiefs has managers foolishly writing off Knox’s early-season incompetence as simple variance. The Bills’ tight end recorded a season-high snap percentage (88.9%) in Week 6, running 30 routes (73.2%) and earning three targets with three receptions for 37 yards and one touchdown. Prior to that contest, Knox’s highest-scoring total peaked at 8.1 points (TE18) which came all the way back in Week 2. Knox now lines up against one of the worst possible matchups for tight ends in Week 8 as the Bills play host to the Packers. The Packers defense allows a mere 5.3 PPG to opposing tight ends, -25.3% below the expected average with a True Matchup Rank of 27th. Knox does not receive the target volume necessary to overcome the difficult matchup ahead of him. Consider streaming the position for the week or replacing Knox altogether with an overlooked tight end off of waivers.
Matt Ward
WR: Christian Kirk (JAX)
Christian Kirk has unsurprisingly been an inconsistent fantasy option in 2022. Even though he is the WR10 overall through seven weeks, he has only recorded one WR1 week. Besides that one week, he has finished as a WR2 three times, WR3 once, and WR4 twice. When rostering a player with a yearly high of WR7 and yearly low of WR93, managers need to be selective on when to use that player. Heading into his Week Eight matchup versus the Denver Broncos, managers should select to keep him on benches. The Broncos are currently the stingiest matchup in the entire NFL from a fantasy football standpoint. They are the least favorable matchup overall for both quarterbacks and wide receivers, the 2nd least favorable matchup for running backs, and the 10th least favorable matchup for tight ends. Based on this information it seems that it both could and should be tough sledding for not only Kirk but the entire Jaguars offense.
Kirk is expected to have a worse game than usual due to his individual cornerback matchup this week. Considering Kirk runs 83% of his routes out of the slot or tight formation, he is slated to face off a majority of the time against slot cornerback K’Waun Williams. Williams is heading into Week Eight with a PFF grade of 66.2 overall and 65.1 in the slot, allowing only 21 catches on 28 targets through seven weeks. Even if Kirk manages to escape Williams in the slot and moves out wide more often than usual, he is likely facing Pat Surtain II who is currently in the conversation for the best cornerback in all of football. Kirk will not be able to escape this Broncos secondary in Week Eight but hopefully he can escape the starting lineups of insightful managers. Keep him on the bench and save him for a better matchup.
Nick Beaulieu
Michael Carter (RB - NYJ)
With the heartbreaking Breece Hall injury taking place last week, Michael Carter managers were looking for him to step up as the main running back in the offense. Instead, the Jets did not even wait a week to trade draft capital to the Jaguars for James Robinson, with the presumed plan of using him between the tackles. This should force managers to temper their expectations on Michael Carter’s rest of season fantasy outlook.
Robert Saleh been non-committal about Robinson’s playing time in Week 8 but he did practice with the team several times this week. Robinson has not been as successful on the ground as years past but he is still averaging more yards per carry this season than Michael Carter, while coming off a torn achilles. If he misses the game or plays on a limited percentage of snaps, running back Ty Johnson can be expected to be slightly involved as well as he played 17% of the offensive snaps last week. Either way, Michael Carter will get the majority of the opportunities but it is hard to imagine that the touches will be valuable against the stout New England Patriots defense.
Carter is averaging an underwhelming 3.45 yards per carry and his receiving volume has completely gone out the window since Flacco went back to the bench. I am not interested in finding out how things will unfold for Michael Carter this week with him in my starting lineup. He has four weekly finishes of RB31 or worse, with two of them being in the RB50 range.
Starting Carter against a notoriously tough defense seems risky, even with the idea of increased opportunity ahead. The extra volume will be nice on paper but unless Carter falls into the endzone, or somehow starts receiving a bunch of targets again, I would rather keep him on my bench against the Patriots.
Boyd Armstrong
Halloween Candy: Candy Corn
Candy corn is all fine and dandy if you enjoy the taste of freeze-dried styrofoam and the pastime of picking boiled, refined, and artificially dyed sugar out of your teeth. Somehow the inventors of candy corn found a way to make vegetables even more unappealing for today’s youth. Bravo you incompetent cretins. You’ve failed miserably at something as simple as making candy taste good.
Matt Ward
Candy - 3 Musketeers
Who on Earth actually wakes up in the morning and thinks to themselves: “I really want a 3 Musketeers bar?” I know the answer - People in the 1930’s who simply don’t know any better. This candy bar has been around since 1932 and has not tried to modernize itself one bit. It is the same bland and boring bar with horrible texture that it has been since its origin and the fact it still remains on shelves baffles me. It is not a candy bar one should consider spending money on in 2022.
Nick Beaulieu
Candy - Almond Joy
Keep any nut variation away from my chocolate please and thank you. Plus, points have to be taken away as justice for my allergic friends.
Boyd Armstrong
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.