Attempting to predict outcomes in the NFL can seem fairly easy when looking at it from a macro view. Anyone who follows the league can point out that one team may have a good offense and their opponent may have a bad defense, but if that's all there was to it, the exhilaration we feel from watching football every Sunday would cease to exist. When you zoom in on any game you’ll see the individual battles taking place all over the field. These are often where the real story is told, so let's dive into some of the Pro Football Focus data on matchups between Wide Receivers and Defensive Backs that could really tip the scales in Week Eight.
Golden Opportunity WR of the Week
AJ Brown vs Pittsburgh Steelers
PFF
It certainly looks like we are in for another big week from the Eagles. This time, the Steelers are on the Philly chopping block, and AJ Brown is the butcher. Brown has been phenomenal with his new team this year. He is averaging 2.5 yards per route run and is rocking an 84.4 PFF grade. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has allowed more yards on the perimeter than any other team in the league. PFF Projects AJ Brown to line up on the outside against Steelers Corners with a grade of 65.0 or worse for 29 snaps. Brown gets kicked into the slot for about a quarter of his snaps as well, but have no fear, even then he will likely be covered by Steelers slot-corner Arthur Maulet, who currently has a 50.8 PFF grade and is allowing a catch 82% of the time he is targeted. AJB week is upon us.
‘Better Luck Next Time’ WR of the Week
Romeo Doubs vs Buffalo Bills
Romeo Doubs’ target share as a rookie with Aaron Rodgers has a lot of people excited. If you are among this crowd and believe last week’s struggles against Washington was just a bump in the road, buckle up. Doubs is not actually playing as well as many Packer fans would have you believe. There has been some production but lately Doubs has come down with a case of the butterfingers, catching only 61% of his targets, and currently has a lack-luster 55.1 PFF receiving grade. Being a target sponge is not going to work against a defense like Buffalo. Linebacker Matt Milano has been one of the best coverage LBs this season with an 86.4 coverage grade and he will be there to stop shallow middle of the field work. Then when on the outside, Doubs is projected to see Dane Jackson for 21 snaps, who is allowing only 0.82 yards per route run in his coverage. Add in Aaron Rodgers saying players making mistakes need to play less and you have a very tough Week 8 outlook for Doubs.
Dogfight of the Week
Patriots Receivers vs Sauce Gardner
Despite New England facing some offensive struggles and quarterback changes, their band of receiving misfits have played quite well. Kendrick Bourne, Jakobi Meyers and Devante Parker all grade well above a 70.0 via PFF. If the Patriots are going to bounce back this week they will need those guys to continue getting open and making plays. It will be really interesting to see if that is possible with standout rookie Sauce Gardner on the opposing defense. Sauce has turned into somewhat of a buzzsaw for wide receivers. He may not have the experience yet but his 82.9 PFF coverage grade is the highest on the Jets and is very impressive for a rookie. He is also allowing a catch on just 42% of his targets. Sauce is projected to see DeVante Parker more than anyone at 16 routes. Parker has had some big plays in important moments. Sauce’s 0.58 yards per route run shows why he could be a game wrecker. He is allowing less than half the yards per route run compared to what Parker has generated this season. That is one of the biggest gaps in that statistic of any matchup for the whole week. Will Sauce be the Jets’ secret sauce in this tough division matchup? Time will tell.
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By Taren Caravella
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.