Week 6 Sleepers and Busts

SLEEPERS

RB: Eno Benjamin (ARI)

DK Nation

Eno Benjamin has been creeping up the Cardinals' depth chart all season, seizing valuable touches from James Conner for big gains on the ground and through the air. Benjamin’s tendency for explosive yardage has kept the chains moving for the Cardinals at crucial points in 2022. He averages 5.5 yards per touch, and 3.81 yards created per touch, ranked 13th and 10th among all running backs, respectively. The third-year thumper will have the lead role to himself in Week 6 as Conner is out indefinitely with a rib injury. Benjamin draws an exploitable defensive matchup against the Seahawks who allow a league-worst 170.2 rushing yards per game. The Seahawks defense is conceding 24.4 PPG to opposing running backs with a Points Over Average rating of 32.1% and a True Matchup Rank of 6th overall. Benjamin showed everyone what he is capable of with a slight increase in opportunity in Week 5, taking eight carries and three receptions for 52 yards and a touchdown against the vaunted Eagles defense. There is no limit to Benjamin’s production with a three-down workload against a susceptible Seahawks front.

• Matt Ward

WR: Rondale Moore (ARI)

It’s a hot week for sleepers from the desert state. The Cardinals immediately inserted Rondale Moore into his rightful role as the primary slot receiver upon his return from a hamstring injury that kept him out three weeks to start the 2022 season. Moore has performed admirably in his first two contests, earning 13 targets (18.9%) and catching 10 passes for 79 yards. The second-year wideout is mastering the vacated role left behind by Christian Kirk with similar volume but at a higher efficiency. A lot of Moore’s highly efficient opportunity share resides in his low depth of target. Luckily, the undersized wideout is a generational athlete in open space. 65 of his 79 total yards have come after the catch. Moore is averaging an impressive 5.0 YAC/TGT, on his limited sample size but has upped his opportunity and snap shares in back-to-back contests. A continued increase in Moore’s playing time could lift his production to a new tier in Week 6. The Cardinals are averaging a league-high 42.0 passing attempts per game, allowing for plenty of targets for all members of the offense to thrive. The NFC West contenders face off against division rivals in Week 6 as they travel to face the Seahawks. Betting lines have the over/under scoring total projected at 50.5 points with the Cardinals favored by 2.5. Geno Smith and his band of True Value Misfits are putting up points and yards in bunches against opposing defenses. The Seahawks average 383.0 scrimmage yards per game (246.0 PASS YDS/122.0 RSH YDS), ranked 8th this season. If the Seahawks can keep the momentum rolling against the Cardinals, Kyler Murray will be forced to increase an already league-high pace as he chases Smith on the scoreboard. Moore is trending up as a dangerous weapon in the Cardinals' all-out air attack and will surely benefit from a high-scoring affair in Week 6.

• Matt Ward

QB: Geno Smith (SEA)

Ever since Geno Smith chose not to write back to his haters after Week One, all he has done is perform as the QB5 overall, maintaining an average of 20.68 points per game. Taking it one step further, Smith is the QB2 overall between Weeks three and five (25.21 PPG) behind only Josh Allen. Simply speaking, Smith is playing well above his pay grade right now and is arguably the biggest surprise of the 2022 NFL season. Many people are doubting this unexpected success and are expecting him to come back to Earth sooner rather than later. While this may be inevitable based on the history of Geno Smith, his come-down should be pushed another week.

In Week six, the Seahawks are slated to play their division rivals, the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have not been playing to expectations on either side of the ball this year. They are currently 23rd in PPG allowed (24.6) and 18th in PPG scored (21.0). This matchup is not nearly as daunting for the Seahawks as it looked on the schedule a month ago, especially with the way they have been rolling as of late. More specifically, the Cardinals defense has been middle of the pack with regard to opposing quarterbacks. They are currently the 16th most favorable matchup for QBs, allowing 19.5 PPG to the position and 5.5% points allowed over average. The matchup is not anything special for Geno Smith by any means but the game itself should be fast paced and in turn, increasingly favorable. The implied total for the game is a combined 51 points, the second highest implied total of the week behind the powerhouse showdown of Chiefs / Bills. What this means in simple terms is that points are going to be put on the board in this game. If this rings true, the reason for said points is going to be through the air. Sometimes fantasy football is as simple as riding the hot hand and when the hot hand of Geno Smith is currently slinging the ball like a hot potato, he needs to be in lineups until the fire fizzles out. Start Geno with confidence this week. 

• Nick Beaulieu

 TE: Evan Engram (JAX)

Evan Engram has been a streaming tight end option for the vast majority of his career and that has not changed since he made the move down south to Florida. Engram is coming off of his best game as a Jaguar after he just put up 69 yards (nice) on 6 catches with 10 targets heading. That is a quality stat line for Engram managers and I am sure that they enjoyed his TE8 finish if they had him plugged into their lineup in the desolate TE landscape. Engram will be looking to duplicate that performance as the Jaguars face off against the division rival Indianapolis Colts in a game that should have a huge impact on the AFC South standings. 

The Colts rank as the 7th best true matchup as they allow 53% points over average to opposing tight ends. That is juicy. In his first matchup against the Colts, Engram had his 2nd best performance of the season, as he caught 7 balls for 46 yards, which led him to 8 half PPR points on the day and a weekly finish as the TE13. 

He has shown multiple times this season (and throughout his career) that he has the ability to squeak in as a low end TE1 and help fantasy managers when they are in a pinch. If he is able to keep up his pace and build upon his big game from last week, Engram could be a great start for fantasy managers, especially if he cracks his way into the endzone and scores a touchdown. 

• Boyd Armstrong

BUSTS

RB: Miles Sanders (PHI)

Miles Sanders has recorded just one week of RB1 production in 2022, averaging 14.7 PPR PPG, ranked RB13. The Eagles' lead back has finished outside the top-36 options twice in five games, including an RB54 in Week 3 (5.4 PTS) and an RB37 (8.4 PTS) performance in Week 5. The two matchups in which Sanders struggled this season (Commanders, Cardinals) rank within the top 15 toughest defenses in True Matchup Rank. The fourth-year back will receive a similarly difficult matchup in Week 6 as the Eagles host the Cowboys in a showdown of bitter division rivals. The Cowboys' defense has helped carry the team to a 4-1 record after losing Dak Prescott in the first week of the 2022 season. “America’s Team” is allowing a mere 15.6 PPG to opposing running backs, equating to -17.5% below the expected average with a True Matchup Rank of 28th for the position. The Cowboys are equally stifling to the rushing and receiving production of backfield opponents, allowing just 10.3 PPG of rushing production and 5.3 PPG of receiving production. Sanders is a low-end RB2 at best in this treacherous matchup.

• Matt Ward

WR: Garrett Wilson (NYJ)

Garrett Wilson burst onto the NFL scene as a red-hot rookie, averaging 17.1 PPR PPG through his first three contests. The return of Zach Wilson as the starting signal-caller has limited the high-volume passing offense that was supporting the rookie wideout as a top-12 positional asset. The Jets' second-year quarterback is attempting a lowly 28.5 passes per game, ranked 37th at the position in 2022. Wilson (the receiver) has tallied merely five catches on ten targets for a combined 68 yards since the Jets' franchise quarterback returned to action. The AFC East hopefuls will face off against a stonewall Packers defense that allows 22.5 PPG to wide receivers, ranked 23rd in True Matchup Rank for the position with a Points Over Average rating of -12.5%. Limited volume in the passing game coupled with a disastrously difficult defensive matchup leaves the rookie wideout outside of the must-start territory in Week 6. Managers should look to bench both Wilson(s) for a tandem of players with higher ceilings and a positive game script. 

• Matt Ward

QB: Russell Wilson (DEN)

When Russell Wilson got traded to the Denver Broncos, “Let Russ Cook” was the shot heard ‘round the world. Everyone expected Russ to finally be freed of the shackles holding him back in Seattle with an impressive supporting cast in Mile High City. Through five weeks, however, the city of Denver must be starving because Russ cannot even microwave a hot pocket. Russ is currently the QB17 on the season averaging a mere 15.31 PPG. For perspective, he has never finished outside of the top-12 QBs when playing a full season in his entire career and the lowest PPG he has ever put up in a season is 16.75 back in 2016. It is glaringly evident that things have not clicked in Denver and this is certainly not the week to bank on it to happen.

Russ is currently dealing with a shoulder ailment that is pressing enough to yield a flight to Los Angeles in order to receive an injection to relieve the discomfort. Reports state that this procedure was similar to the one that Dak Prescott received prior to being held out of the entirety of training camp in 2021, yet Russ is trying to play through it. Combining his lack of connection to the offense with a significant injury, it is hard, if not impossible, to start him in leagues until there is a turnaround. His track record states that he will eventually regress back to the mean but in a divisional showdown against the Chargers, that risk should not be taken this week. In deeper leagues, it should be noted that byes have arrived and the waiver wire may be thin at the QB position as a result. There is some light at the tunnel for those of you who are essentially forced to start Russ, as the Chargers are the 13th most favorable matchup for opposing QBs and 9th most favorable matchup when looking only at the pass. Regardless of the matchup, however, managers should look for a pivot if possible until we see Russ cook better than Chef Boyardee.

• Nick Beaulieu

TE: Kyle Pitts (ATL)

Kyle Pitts is an amazing talent on the football field. He is truly a wide receiver playing the tight end position, which seems like the ultimate cheat code in an offense, hence his top 30 overall fantasy football ADP. Unfortunately for those who drafted Kyle Pitts though , the Falcons coaching staff does not seem to care about how talented of a receiver he is. Arthur Smith would much rather run the ball 30+ times a game and force his passing offense to take the backseat. 

Pitts is averaging a measly 5 PPG through his first four games played and has scored more than 3 points only one time so far this season. That makes him the TE22 in fantasy on a points per game basis. Talent isn’t the reason for a lack of points, however, as the way the Falcons offense operates is the issue for Pitts. There is only so much he can do when he is in an offense that prefers to run the ball and even his 22% target share becomes much less attractive when it results in his usual 2-3 catches, which is simply not enough for him to be a reliable fantasy asset. 

To make matters worse, the Falcons are playing against the San Francisco 49ers this week, who are one of the worst defenses for an opposing tight end to face, as they allow the 3rd least points to the position with a -43% points over average. The low passing volume from the Falcons offense plus the difficult matchup forces me to have serious reservations about Kyle Pitts’ fantasy upside for week 6. He has been nowhere near the fantasy asset that managers were hoping for during draft day and I wouldn’t expect that to change anytime soon.

• Boyd Armstrong

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