Ohhhhhh baby are we hot or what?! Giants ML started us off with a nice early morning cash and it just kept getting better from there. The Bills throttled the Steelers, the Titans took care of the Commanders and the 49ers absolutely pounded the Panthers. We lost Ravens -3 on a brutal 2 point victory due to a PAT going directly over the goalpost, and the Buccaneers once again underwhelmed and failed to cover against the Falcons. Deebo Samuel found the endzone for our 49ers duo prop so that was a fantastic +160 cash, and king Jalen Hurts skipped in for six with his legs not once but twice, elevating his rushing TD total to 6 on the season, hitting in 4 out of 5 games. Lamar did not even seek the endzone with his legs, so we will adjust there going forward. Mike Evans failed to find the endzone as well despite a victory from TB, which rounded off our still glorious slate. $100 unit bettors would’ve profited $435 from this ticket. You just love to see it. Let’s keep this momentum rolling!
System Watch:
Our underdog outright/favorites cover system went 12-4 this week, with the overall record progressing to 67-13. This is continuing to show as a trend worth following, particularly when betting underdogs. As we continue to accrue data on this trend, it is worth noting that large spreads tend to sway towards the favorites and the tighter spreads leave more room for underdogs to win outright. Medium sized point spreads (roughly 5-8 points) are the ones to be cautious of when betting this trend, particularly amongst division opponents. Week 5 saw the Raiders narrowly lose a game to division rival KC, Atlanta kept it close with TB and the Vikings just failed to cover the Bears (depending where you got that spread; the game opened at 7 and closed at 8.5. Minnesota won by 7). Bottom line: when observing the parameters of this system, watch out for divisional matchups with significant spreads!
Game Lines:
Buccaneers -8.5 @ Steelers (-110)
The Spun
I am ready to be hurt again. Despite 3 consecutive weeks of betting disappointment, maybe we can chalk up last week's close win to a divisional pesky opponent for Tampa. The Steelers are one of the worst teams in the NFL. They lost 38-3 to Buffalo last week to advance to a 1-4 record, which matches their ATS record as well. It is time for TB to flip the switch and get right with a blowout game. Two touchdown win incoming!
Jaguars ML @ Colts (+114)
The Jaguars are coming off a very disappointing showing against Houston. Before that loss, they appeared to have a legitimate shot to win the porous AFC South. Division games are always a little bit unpredictable, so last week does not change my opinion of Jacksonville. The real piece to consider here is that the Indianapolis Colts are a terrible football team. The Broncos matchup was one of the worst football games of the year last week, generating hype around a team that deserves none. The Jaguars can move the ball and can score, the Colts, for the most part, cannot. Look for more awful play from Matt Ryan to help secure a Jaguars victory this week.
Giants ML vs Ravens (+210)
It is time to show some respect to the New York Giants. While Daniel Jones may not be the future of the franchise, he is playing at a really high level and finding ways to help win games. Saquon Barkley is back to being a superstar (as we knew would happen with a competent coaching staff) and the defense is sneakily one of the best red zone units in the whole league. The Ravens, on the other hand, have shown they are inept at keeping and building on leads, despite some flashes of looking like serious contenders. This game is in Jersey and will be loud. Giants fans are back and here to stay! Take the points (+6) if you don’t trust it, but we’re riding with Big Blue either way.
49ers -5.5 @ Falcons (-110)
Vegas has failed to catch up with San Fran since the season ending injury to Trey Lance, but we have not. The Jimmy G led 49ers are 3-1 ATS, covering the spread by significant margins in all three of their wins, with their only loss coming on that weird Sunday Night in Denver. Atlanta is 5-0 ATS on the season which is the only explanation for how short this spread is. Once again, the 49ers will cover comfortably and we will be thrilled. Book it!
*Chiefs ML vs Bills (+125)
The Bills are the best team in the NFL. But Primetime Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead Stadium for plus money will always be a play. This game will be a blood-bath and is the early frontrunner for the game of the season. Sit back and enjoy this one; Thisweek we are Chiefs fans.
Props and TD Scorers
Justin Jefferson/Minnesota: Anytime TD/ML Parlay (+185) (FanDuel Only)
Sharp football analysis
This is becoming a weekly play. It has come down a bit since Week 3 (+205, +200 the past two weeks) but this is still excellent value for the best WR in the NFL in a game the Vikings should win.
Jalen Hurts Anytime TD Scorer (+115)
It is objectively hilarious that the books continue to offer this at plus money. Hurts has 6 rushing TDs on the season and has scored in 4 out of 5 games. We will keep betting this until I say otherwise.
*Travis Kelce/Kansas City: Anytime TD/ML Parlay (+250) (FanDuel Only)
Offering this with an asterisk as a pivot if you wish to add some more value to your Chiefs ML bet. Coming off a 4 TD performance, some would call for regression but I am calling it a pattern: Mahomes looks for his main guy in the red zone when the game is tight. This game will be tight and should have plenty of scoring. +250 is incredible value.
Longshot Parlay of the Week
Now that we have some data, I will try to throw one of these together every week! Worth your spare change or a free bet if you have one.
3 Legs: Anytime TD/ML Parlay
Daniel Bellinger/NYG (+900)
DK Nation
Receives a good amount of targets in the NYG offense, which is currently without Golladay, Toney, and Shepard. Great odds.
49ers DST/SF (+850)
Planning for this defense to outclass Atlanta in every facet. This has a solid chance to make some noise!
Clyde Edwards-Helaire/KC (+360)
Despite a smaller opportunity share than desired, Clyde is the RB1 in this offense and gets a good amount of work, particularly in the red-zone. In what should be a high scoring game, Clyde has a great chance to fall into the endzone.
Total: +43600
$5 wins $2185
That’s all folks! Let’s keep racking up that bankroll. As always, hit me up on Twitter with any betting chatter and as always, bet responsibly!
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By Mike “Schiz” Schissel
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.