A Giants comeback in London and a bad start for the Chiefs put us at 2-3 last week. This week doesn’t offer too many juicy lines to exploit but there are still values out there. Fire up your 6-point teasers with any of these options!
Game of the Week
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers O/U: 44
Themi’s Teaser: Bucs -2.5
The Pewter Plank
It should have shocked nobody that one of the most explosive offenses in the league, the Buffalo Bills, exposed a crumbling Steelers defense in a 38-3 win. Despite an offensive performance that led to a field goal and 54 combined rushing yards, there were bright spots on the day for Pittsburgh. Kenny Pickett and George Pickens look like the rookie pieces this offense needs to start contending. The politics at play within the Steelers organization continues to plague them, though, as Matt Canada is clearly not the answer at OC.
The Bucs have issues of their own. Tom Brady’s alleged relationship issues paired with an injured receiving group has led Tampa to a shaky but solid 3-2 record. They are not playing the best football of their lives but they are still rolling by in a weak division thanks to their incredible defense. The Tampa Bay defense is 3rd in DVOA and 8th in EPA/play. They’re also 3rd in sacks. The Kansas City Chiefs are the only truly great offense they’ve versed all season and they’ve limited their other 4 opponents to under 15 points in each game. The Steelers aren’t anywhere near championship quality this year and we should see the Bucs win a low-scoring game by about a TD. They can do more damage than that but their offensive struggles are hard to dismiss. Take this line down to a win by a field goal. The line has moved a few points over the week and is inching towards 10 on some books. Tease this by 7 points to -2.5 and only take it at -10 if your book doesn’t grade teaser leg pushes as a loss.
Underdog of the Week
Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts O/U: 42
Themi’s Teaser: Jaguars +8.5
It was only a few short weeks ago that the Jaguars shut out the Colts in a shocking win that kickstarted their impressive start to the season. Although they’re just 2-3, they have not lost a game by more than one score and were set to dethrone the undefeated Eagles in Week 4 before crumbling. They disappointed last week in a loss to the lowly Houston Texans but are in a good position to bounce back. Even if they can’t get the win again, teasing them to a loss by just one score is likely to hit.
The Colts have struggled mightily on offense. They’re the worst offense by DVOA and is 31st in EPA/play, just behind the Panthers. They’re not running the ball effectively, even when Jonathon Taylor was healthy. Both Taylor and Hines have now been ruled out for this game as well. Until the Colts can figure out anything on offense, they are going to need to get by with their defense. Indianapolis has won two games by a combined 6 points, while losing twice by 31. They even tied with the Texans in week 1 and have yet to score more than 20 points. Even as the Jaguars begin to show signs of weakness after a roaring start to the year, these two teams should duke it out in a fairly close and low-scoring affair. If any team has shown they can win by multiple scores, it’s Trevor Lawrence’s Jaguars.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) O/U: 42
Themi’s Teaser: Eagles -0.5
NJ.com
The Dallas Cowboys are a good team. They feature an incredible defense that should produce the DPOY winner and are looking like playoff contenders. Micah Parsons is tied for the most sacks in the league and has the 3rd highest PFF grade for an edge defender. Parsons also has the highest pass rush win rate amongst edge defenders, per ESPN. This unstoppable force will be key in helping the Cowboys stay competitive on Sunday. Jalen Hurts is being pressured on 21.4% of his dropbacks per Pro Football Reference. Hurts has been sacked 11 times and is tied with Justin Fields and Daniel Jones for the most scrambles this season. The Eagles do have the 7th highest pass block win rate, though, so this battle will be fun to watch. The biggest advantage for Philadelphia is their offense. Both teams rank right by each other in defensive EPA/play but the Eagles have the 5th best offense in EPA while the Cowboys rank 25th. Cooper Rush has played it very safe in Dallas’ close wins. He still hasn’t thrown more than 2 TDs or 250 yards despite averaging nearly 30 pass attempts from weeks 2 to 4. He was asked to do even less last week when he completed 10 of his 16 passes for 102 yards in the win over the Rams. Some lucky turnovers and a slightly efficient offense can help Dallas grab their 5th win in a row but the high probability play is to tease the Eagles down to a close win at home. The Eagles are just too well rounded and they will likely force Cooper Rush into throwing more than he ever has.
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.