Sleepers and Busts: Week 1

SLEEPERS

QB: Sam Howell - Washington Commanders

It's never too early to stream quarterbacks based on defensive matchups. Even in Week 1. Building a roster with the strict intention of churning the quarterback position for the best available matchup is a tried and true, albeit intimidating, draft strategy. The Commanders and, by extension, Sam Howell will face what could very well be their easiest competition of the 2023 season in Week 1 as the team hosts the tanking Cardinals at home. Howell has admittedly fallen out of favor with managers in 1QB leagues, sporting an ADP of QB22, but gets a scintillating matchup in his first start of the new season. Head coach Ron Rivera has an opportunity to inspire immense confidence in his young, second-year starter against a laughably shallow defensive unit. Last season the Cardinals' defense allowed 18.2 PPG to quarterbacks via the air and 2.9 PPG to the position via the ground while conceding 230.3 passing yards per game. Entering 2023, The Cardinals somehow built an even weaker roster than in 2022 and will likely be a favorite target for streaming quarterbacks all season. Howell's dual-threat abilities and athletic prowess as a rusher provide him with a safe floor of production regardless of the game script.

Matt Ward

RB: Khalil Herbert - Chicago Bears

Starting in just 30% of Yahoo leagues and being drafted as the RB37, Khalil Herbert is being severely slept on. With David Montgomery gone, Herbert can shine as the true RB1 in Chicago. Herbert rushed 129 times in 13 games compared to Montgomery’s 201 in 16 games, nearly outgaining him on the ground and proving to be the more efficient back on every touch. We’ve seen Herbert explode without a massive workload but we also know he can take off when given enough chances. In his 8 career games with at least 12 carries, Herbert finished the week as an RB1 three times, an RB2 twice, an RB3 twice, and RB4 only once. Even in his worst performances, he was often right on the edge of jumping into the next tier of producers. In 2022, Herbert finished with the highest RYOE/att amongst qualified RBs per NFL Next Gen Stats, and his PPOxTD ranked 14th. Week 1 will give Herbert plenty of opportunity to show just how good during this juicy matchup against the Packers. The Bears are 1.0 point home favorites as they host the rival Packers but the spread and game-script could favor a run-heavy approach. The Bears not only ran the most of any team in 2022 but they ran at the highest rates when trailing (55.6%) or tied (63.0%). Justin Fields’ propensity to take off scrambling at the first sign of pressure helps boost those numbers but opportunity will still be there for Herbert as the early-down back. There are few better teams for Herbert to face in his debut as the Bears starting running back. Now on a downward spiral, The Packers may struggle to compete against a team they typically dominate. Furthermore, the Packers' defense allowed the 8th most fantasy points to running backs last season, ranked 9th in True Matchup Rank to the position, while allowing the 2nd highest opponent rushing EPA in the league. The Packers did draft Lukas Van Ness with the 13th overall pick in 2023 to help boost a weak defensive front but without many other moves or players set to improve just yet, this is still a beatable unit. It would be foolish to rank Herbert as a clear-cut RB1 option this week but he could finish at the higher end of the RB2 tier with legitimate upside to sneak into the top-12 producers.

Themi Michalakis

WR: Jahan Dotson - Washington Commanders

Another season, another year of league-winning sleepers and roster-breaking busts. There are multiple viable fantasy options on the Commanders' side of the ball this week as the team hosts the horrendously shallow defensive unit of the traveling Cardinals. Sophomore wide receiver Jahan Dotson stands out as a highly overlooked receiver on the precipice of a year two breakout. In 2022, during Dotson’s rookie season, the blossoming wideout put his upside on display for fantasy managers far and wide, starting his inaugural season on an amazing hot streak. The Commanders' rookie ended up finishing as a top 22 wide receiver (or better) in three of his first four games, producing over 150+ receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns, showing the same affinity and domination inside the red zone that earned him praise in college. An unfortunate hamstring injury halted Dotson’s development, forcing him to miss the next five weeks of the season. It understandably took the rookie a few games to get back on track but by the time Week 13 rolled around, Dotson was ready to reignite his hot streak. In three games from Week 13 to Week 16, Dotson yet again balled out, finishing as a top 18 fantasy option in all three games, including two WR1 outings. In this span he put up 235 receiving yards, finding the endzone in each game while averaging a whopping 16.0 Half-PPR PPG. The upside is sky-high for a wideout like Dotson entering his second season. With the Commanders facing the horrendous Cardinals defense and Terry McLaurin dealing with a lingering toe issue, Dotson could take advantage of the opportunity and produce at an incredible rate for fantasy managers who are gutsy enough to start the undervalued wideout.

Boyd Armstrong

TE: Dalton Schultz - Houston Texans 

Dalton Schulz has a path in 2023 to lead all Texans players in targets and production as the most effective and efficient pass-catcher on the roster. Nico Collins is expected to step up as the team's top X receiver while veteran wideout Robert Woods handles the flanker/Y receiver duties leaving the undersized rookie Tank Dell and unproven John Metchie to split reps from the slot. The road to yet another overlooked TE1 season starts in Week 1 as the Texans travel to face the stonewall defense of the Ravens. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud will be desperate for a big-bodied target that he can find early and often as he faces the fearsome Multi-Zone blitz packages designed to force quarterbacks into quick and often bad decisions. Schultz provides his young signal-caller with a much-needed security blanket that can produce at a lower depth of target. Expect Stroud to pepper his tight end with short-yardage looks as the Ravens send constant pressure in attempts to shake the confidence of the rookie quarterback.

Matt Ward

BUSTS

QB: Daniel Jones - New York Giants

Daniel Jones irked his way into the QB1 lexicon after a career-best season that saw the Giants signal-caller put up 3205 passing yards with 15 touchdowns, and a career-low six interceptions while adding 708 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. Jones finished the season averaging 18.4 PPG (QB10) as he established himself as one of the cheapest "Konami Code" quarterbacks in fantasy. Although his season-long resume appeared much improved, Jones' outings against the rival Cowboys were anything but positive. In two games against the Cowboys last season, Jones averaged just 212.0 passing yards, 0.5 passing touchdowns to 0.5 interceptions, 23.25 rushing yards, and zero rushing touchdowns. As a whole the Cowboys' defense allowed just 18.3 PPG to quarterbacks last season, ranked 24th in True Matchup Rank, allowing -11.9% below the expected scoring average to the position. The Cowboys' defense has only gotten stronger and deeper with the addition of All-Pro defensive back Stephon Gilmore, and All-American rookie Mazi Smith while the unstoppable trio of Trevon Diggs, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Micah Parsons continue to wreak havoc on the gridiron. The Giants did very little to address their lack of outside receiving weapons this season, bringing in tight end Darren Waller to help bolster the passing game. The Cowboys allowed just 9.1 PPG to tight ends last season (-14.1% below the expected average) as one of the best teams at stemming positional production. With Waller perceivably locked down and no outside receiving weapons to lean on, Jones appears lost up a creek without a paddle for Week 1. Expect the Giants' franchise quarterback to finish outside of the top 12 in his first outing of the 2023 season.

Matt Ward

RB: James Conner - Arizona Cardinals

James Conner was a favorite mid-round “Hero” or “See-Saw” RB target for many, sporting an ADP of RB22 (59th Overall). Rightfully so, Conner is currently being started in 81% of all Yahoo leagues but could easily produce well below his suggested roster percentages against the Commanders in Week 1. Conner finished the 2022 campaign as the RB10 in Half-PPR PPG, including five RB1 performances in the final eight weeks. The veteran thumper was highly inefficient but maintained a relatively safe floor thanks to his monstrous opportunity share in both the rushing and receiving department and the Cardinals' utter dearth of depth at the position. All of his value as a fantasy player came from volatile and unpredictable touchdown production as his 23 red zone opportunities topped every player on the Cardinals roster. Conner ranked 31st in PPOxTD amongst RBs with at least 75 opportunities and the offense is expected to take a significant hit with Murray out and Joshua Dobbs under center for at least the first week. The Cardinals have all but openly admitted that they are attempting to lose as many games as possible. Conner’s superb stretch to end the season included only one game with Murray as the starter. In fact, Conner’s Week 12 RB6 overall performance was one of his best rushing games of the season and he hit those highs without Murray. Dobbs may not have the game management skills of Colt McCoy, who took over for Murray for most of his absence, but he may be able to string together some serviceable starts for the tanking franchise, allowing Conner to have a decent season-long outlook. Unfortunately, Week 1 may prove the most difficult of the campaign. The Commanders allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points to running backs last season, proving to be a stout defense with few exploitable weaknesses through the air as well. The Commanders allowed the 9th lowest EPA through the air and the 3rd lowest on the ground. In 2022’s True Matchup Rank, the Commanders ranked as the 30th hardest matchup overall for running backs, allowing just 12.5 PPG on the ground (31st) and 7.3 PPG of receiving production (21st) against the position. Don’t expect this unit to fall off in 2023. The team elected to keep virtually the entire starting lineup on the roster with head coach Ron Rivera still calling plays for a ferocious Jack Del Rio defense. Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat, and Daron Payne still lead the line with former 1st round force Chase Young attempting to string together a healthy season as one of the league’s top premier edge rushers. The Cardinals are clearly in a rebuild and likely do not care about the outcome of this contest whatsoever. Sportsbooks have the Commanders as 7.0 point home favorites with a projected over/under total of 38.0 points, representing the lowest projected score of any matchup in Week 1. Managers should not expect many scoring or red zone opportunities out of the Conner this week as the game script is unlikely to be in the Cardinals' favor. Perhaps that leads to an increase in targets for Conner but we know that Washington can and has limited the upside of those targets. It’s hard to bench Conner in a wild and unpredictable Week 1 but temper expectations heavily, both for the entire season and especially against the Commanders. If he’s your FLEX I would look elsewhere for an upside play.

Themi Michalakis

WR: Deebo Samuel - San Francisco 49ers

Sometimes with the first bust of the new year you’ve got to get a little bold, even if it means fading a wide receiver with a top-20 positional ADP. Managers should not hesitate to find a pivot strategy for Deebo Samuel in his matchup against the Steelers this week. We can’t forget how magical Samuel’s 2021 season was but things took a drastic turn for the worse in 2022. He started the year on a decent note, averaging 12.9 Half PPR PPG through the first six weeks. Then things took a tumble as the 49ers made a surprise trade to acquire Christian McCaffrey from the Panthers. McCaffrey suited up immediately for the 49ers as Samuel managers everywhere let out a whimper. Since McCaffrey joined the 49ers in Week 7 of the 2022 season, Samuel has produced four games outside of the top 45 wide receivers and only two top 24 positional performances. Samuel had more outings as a WR4 (or lower) than he had games as a startable asset in 2022. Across this span, he averaged 8.9 Half-PPR PPG, a 4.0 PPG regression from before McCaffrey arrived. With the addition of a superstar running back, Samuel’s unmatched dual-threat upside as a rusher/receiver hybrid became non-existent. The 49ers wideout did manage to post one WR6 overall week where he teased managers with his ceiling. Outside of that game against a weakened Cardinals defense, having Samuel in your lineup was more of a “name brand” curse rather than a blessing of fantasy points. Perhaps that’s not entirely to blame on Samuel’s talent directly but it’s hard to deny that the arrival of McCaffrey has diminished the wideouts' role in comparison to the positional versatility he had in the 2021 iteration of this offense. With all of this in mind and a matchup against the historically tough Steelers defense, managers may need to wait and see Samuel’s usage before plugging him into their lineups. 

Boyd Armstrong

TE: Kyle Pitts - Atlanta Falcons

Every positive report swirling around Kyle Pitts is propped up by notions of the past. Current Falcons' beat writers have recently not been so kind, citing the young stars' lack of development as a blocker as the primary fault when making strides toward earning more snaps in the offense. Falcons beat report Josh Kendall of the Athletic has even gone as far as to say that he projects Pitts to be no higher than 4th on the team in total targets. Although he possesses god-like traits for a tight end, Pitts severely regressed in his second season following a stellar rookie campaign that saw the generational prospect post 1026 yards (just a few yards shy of Mike Ditka's rookie record). He managed just 356 yards on 28 receptions with 2 touchdowns through 8 games before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Even before his unfortunate designation, Pitts' value had clearly diminished in the eyes of head coach Arthur Smith and his run-first (and second, and third) philosophy. Facing off against a formidable Panthers defense in Week 1 doesn't bode well for the Falcons' star tight end, who by all accounts, is well behind his expected development. Pitts could feasibly be in for a monster year in his third season if the negative news proves to be noise but managers will likely have to be patient past opening week to reap those results.

Matt Ward

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