Welcome to Season 3 of Clay’s Corner: DFS Plays! It has truly been a joy creating this article for you all and seeing the units grow in the process. With that said let’s start the first weekly article of the new season hot!
Week 1 DraftKings slate
Games to target:
1. MIA @ LAC - 50.5 O/U
Implied totals: MIA 23.75; LAC 26.75
2. TB @ MIN - 45.5 O/U
Implied totals: TB 19.75; MIN 25.75
3. LAR @ SEA - 45.5 O/U
Implied totals: LAR 20; SEA 25.5
4. JAX @ IND – 45.5 O/U
Implied totals: JAX 25; IND 20.5
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins ($6,300)
We are back with Captain Kirk Cousins, leading us off against a barren Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense. Last season, Cousins tied for 5th best in Broto’s QB consistency stat, finishing with 10 QB1 performances. Cousins was 4th in passing yards last season (4,547), 5th in TD passes (29), 8th in YPG (267.5) and 7th in QB big plays category with 10. Let us also not forget, the Vikings led the NFL in passing rate and plays per game and bring back the same offensive system. Start Captain Kirk with confidence Week 1.
Trevor Lawrence ($6,500)
Trevor Lawrence tied with Cousins with 10 QB1 performances last season, getting better and better as the year progressed. In two games against the Indianapolis Colts, Lawrence passed for a combined 400+yds and 3 TDs. Digging through Lawrence’s stats last season, he ranked 10th in DAKOTA (expected points added + completion percentage above expected), 9th in total passing yards, 8th in passing TDs, 5th in rushing TDs as well as top-10 in both rushing attempts and rushing yards for QBs. Week 1 could be liftoff for a huge season for TLaw.
Running Back
Jamaal Williams ($5,100)
Do not look a gift horse in the mouth, Jamaal Williams is the free square in Week 1 with no Alvin Kamara or Kendre Miller. The Titans are not the best ground matchup, having allowed only 76.9 YPG in 2022, but with no help in the backfield and a Saints team looking to contend, Williams is a great value.
Aaron Jones ($6,300)
Another nice bargain-bin play here. The Chicago Bears allowed the 2nd-most rushing YPG last season with 157.3. Insert a new-look Green Bay team with an unknown commodity at QB and Aaron Jones could have a big game on the ground and as a safety net. Green Bay finished 15th in rushing yards last season with QB Aaron Rodgers however, with QB Jordan Love taking over I expect the running game to be a priority and Week 1 is the perfect time to start.
Raheem Mostert ($5,400)
Death, taxes, and the Los Angeles Charger’s run-funnel defense. Once again, the Charger’s allowed their opponents to move the ball on the ground last season allowing 145.8 YPG. Insert the only healthy running back on the Miami Dolphins roster in Raheem Mostert. Per NFL next-gen stats, Mostert ranked 8th best in rushing yards over expected against all ball-carriers in the NFL. In a game with the highest O/U in Week 1, expect Mostert to put up serious points.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson ($9,500)
There may not be another player that loves playing indoors as much as Justin Jefferson. In his career, Jefferson was played 30 games in a dome vs. 17 games outdoors:
20 TDs vs. 4 TDs
72.8% catch rate vs. 58.6% catch rate
11.03 yards/target vs. 8.24 yards/target
7.3 receptions/gm vs. 5.4 receptions/gm
110.6 yards/gm vs 76.1 yards/gm
Take Jefferson to crush the feeble Buccaneers secondary at home.
Chris Godwin ($5,900)
Speaking of the Buccaneers, I like Chris Godwin in Week 1. With Mike Evans battling injury and contract disputes there are going to be many footballs thrown Godwin’s way. What makes Godwin’s disposition even better is how bad the Vikings defense is. The Vikings allowed the 2nd most passing YPG at 265.6 in 2022 and lost some of their best players this offseason. In an up-tempo road dome game, Godwin will score points.
Jahan Dotson ($5,000)
With Terry McLauren possibly missing the week with a toe injury, it is go-time for Jahan Dotson. As previously mentioned, the Cardinals allowed the 9th most passing yards in 2022. In his rookie season, Dotson managed an aDOT of 13.98, which ranked 9th, along with 7 TDs (12th). Dotson could be off to a surging sophomore season.
Tight End
T.J. Hockenson ($5,000)
Upon Hockenson’s arrival to the Vikings, he was immediately peppered with targets. In fact, he had 86 targets in 10 regular season games with the Vikings. The exit of long-time Viking WR Adam Thielen should help Hockenson in the TD department. Thielen was tied for the 8th most red zone targets in 2022, opening up an opportunity. The increased red zone targets should help against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that tied for the 4th most touchdowns allowed to TEs last season. If you can afford it, pay up for Hockenson.
Logan Thomas ($3,200)
This play is not for the faint of heart, as it is more of a matchup play instead of a volume/talent play. The Arizona Cardinals allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to the TE in 2022 at 10.1/gm and the most touchdowns to opposing TEs (12). If Thomas is healthy, he is an easy cheap piece to solidify your cash lineup.
D/ST
Washington Commanders ($2,800)
The Commanders defense allowed the 11th fewest rushing yards as well as the 4th fewest passing yards in 2022 and are facing recently acquired QB Josh Dobbs. Combine that with their top-10 pressure rate (hurries + knockdowns + all sack plays per drop back) and Gannon is going want to make like coach Klein of the SCLSU Mud Dogs get a “hot pretzel.”
Favorite stacks:
1. Sam Howell + Jahan Dotson + Cole Turner or Logan Thomas (health pending) with James Conner/Marquise Brown/Michael Wilson bring back. The Cardinal’s defense was bad last year and does not project to be any better this season. This stack is super cheap and already unique for GPPs.
2. Kirk Cousins + Justin Jefferson + T.J. Hockenson with Chris Godwin/Rachaad White bring back. The Vikings defense is bad, and the Buccaneers defense was stout against the run last season. There should be plenty of passing in this game. If you wanted to increase uniqueness, you could stack: Baker Mayfield + Chris Godwin/Mike Evans + Rachaad White with Justin Jefferson and/or T.J. Hockenson bring back.
3. Justin Herbert + Mike Williams + Austin Ekeler with Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle or Raheem Mostert bring back. The Charger’s stack is expensive, but the juice is worth the squeeze with new OC Kellen Moore in town.
4. Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews + Zay Flowers/Odell Beckham Jr. with no bring backs. It is time to see what OC Todd Monken and Lamar Jackson have been cooking up all offseason.
5. Trevor Lawrence + Calvin Ridley + Christian Kirk/Evan Engram with Michael Pittman Jr. or Alec Pierce bring back. HC Doug Pederson loves passing the rock. Last year was his 2nd lowest passing rate in his career as HC at 57.1%, expect that number to increase starting Week 1.
GPP Plays:
High End:
QB Lamar Jackson ($8,000)
The Baltimore Ravens get a nice home-opener matchup against the rebuilding Houston Texans in Week 1. This Texans’ defense allowed the most rushing YPG in 2022 with 170.2. In 2 games against the Texans, Jackson threw for 426 yards, 5 TDs along and 133 yards rushing. Trust in “Big Truzz” for Week 1 GPPs.
QB Jalen Hurts ($7,800)
The New England Patriots defense is not special. They ranked 17th in passing yards allowed last season, however that stat does not tell the whole story. The Patriots faced the following QBs in 2022: Mitch Trubisky, Jacoby Brissett, Zach Wilson (twice), Sam Ehlinger and Colt McCoy. The Eagles offense is locked-and-loaded to crush this mediocre defense. Fade the “Patriots defense is good” narrative.
Low End:
QB Derek Carr $5,300
If the Titans will not allow opponents to run the ball (allowed fewest rushing YPG last season) then Derek Carr should have a nice game. With rookie sensation WR Chris Olave ready to ascend and allegedly healthy WR Micheal Thomas added back to the mix, Carr has plenty of playmakers to distribute the rock and rack up fantasy points.
QB Baker Mayfield $4,900/Sam Howell $4,900
These two QBs are cheap and easy to stack up in GPPs and allow you to pay up for other premier pieces.
RB Brian Robinson ($5,100)
Nothing wrong with a bargain every now and then and that’s exactly what Robinson is in Week 1. Robinson has wrestled the starting gig from Antonio Gibson and draws an incredible matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals 14th ranked run defense is a bit misleading as teams were able to pummel them through the air (allowed the 9th most passing yards to opponents). The Washington Commanders plan to establish the run based on their 49.3% run rate from 2022, which ranked 10th highest in the NFL. Let us not forget the Cardinals recently traded LB/S Isaiah Simmons, who corralled 99 tackles and 4 sacks last season for the red birds. Enjoy the production and savings from Robinson in Week 1.
RB Kenneth Walker ($6,200)
Rookie RB Zach Charbonnet has been the bell of the ball all offseason. However, for all the things that Charbonnet does better than Walker, explosive runs are still Walkers’ game. Walker torched the Rams last season at home, going for 114 yards on 29 carries. This is a home run play, we are hoping for a long TD and with the Rams being 13th in rushing YPG allowed last season, combined with a defensive roster starting no-name players. I like Walker’s odds of breaking a big one in Week 1.
WR Mike Williams ($7,100)
It is time for the big reveal that will be the OC Kellen Moore led offense and I am all in! Give me “Big Mike” to go over 100 yds receiving and score a TD. Fun fact, Williams was on-pace to smash his career targets last season until an injury occurred.
WR Michael Pittman ($6,200)
In two meetings with the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Indianapolis Colts were outscored 51-34 in 2022. However, in the first meeting between the two teams Michael Pittman was out with an injury. In the 2nd meeting he made up for it accumulating 134 yards on 13 receptions. I expect the Jaguars to push the pace and we have already seen the Colts go up-tempo this preseason. Pittman should be the beneficiary, especially with no Jonathan Taylor in the run game.
TE Dallas Goedert ($5,000)
Goedert is an interesting play in Week 1. You get the boost of a player on a strong offense and gain leverage against WR AJ Brown and WR DeVonta Smith who I expect to have higher rostership than Goedert. The Patriots allowed the 2nd most TDs to TEs (11) in 2022.
TE Gerald Everett ($4,300)
The forgotten man in the newly revamped Chargers offense, Everett gets a chance to blow up Week 1. The Miami Dolphins defense gave up the 4th most points to TEs last season as well as the 3rd most TDs. Everett finished 2022 8th in both targets and receptions at the TE position, as well as 6th in red zone opportunities. With the Chargers having the 2nd highest implied points this week at 26.75, there is plenty of opportunity for Everett to hit pay dirt.
D/ST
Green Bay Packers ($2,800)
I prefer defenses playing at home, but the Packers had QB Justin Fields’ number. In 4 career games against the Packers, Fields is averaging only 180 passing yards, 52 rushing yards and 0.5 rushing TDs. What makes this play more enticing is Fields’ mistakes. In those same 4 games against the Packers, Fields threw 6 INTs and was sacked 9 times.
Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)
WR Jahan Dotson ($5,000) & WR Zay Flowers ($4,000)
I have briefly touched on Dotson earlier. The long and short is: a great matchup and potentially no Terry McLauren.
Flowers has been able to work with QB Lamar Jackson all offseason and he should put up points in his NFL debut against the inferior Texans defense.
Have a great Week 1 of DFS! Win big and be kind to each other!
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By Clayton Jones aka @FF_Pulse_88 on Twitter and on The Fantasy Football by Broto app!
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