Broto bettors! We have an excellent opportunity to end up on top for this 2023 season with this Super Bowl!
Let’s dive right into it.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) (50.5 o/u)
Overview:
The clash of the one seeds! Football’s best will battle this one out in what should be an offensive juggernaut showdown. These are the two best offenses in football, so we should be braced for some fireworks. Philly’s pass defense is also best in the league by most metrics, so again, the unstoppable force versus the immovable object theory will be tested. The largest criticism of Philadelphia has been their relative opponent ability/weak strength of schedule, so who better than the MVP Patrick Mahomes to put them to the test. The biggest question mark for Kansas City is the ankle of Mahomes, who although appeared to be able to scramble and make plays against Cincinnati, was also clearly hobbled. With another 2 weeks rest since that game, I do not foresee this injury playing a huge factor.
Sometimes, betting is hugely analytical. Sometimes, it is more of an art - There is a feel to it that cannot be explained or taught. This is one of those games that can be analyzed to death but at the end of the day, many different conclusions can be drawn. Let’s go with what we know and take care of business.
Straight Wagers (2U Each)
Travis Kelce Anytime TD (-125)
Stars will be stars. The Kelce brothers facing off in the Super Bowl is both a huge narrative and a testament to their respective talents. Mahomes will be utilizing his favorite target early and often, especially considering the formidable force that is the Eagles secondary. Look for low ADOT from Mahomes and a lot of passing work for the running back room along with Kelce. His reception total is a little high for my comfort (7.5), so I prefer to look for the score.
Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (+100)
As the founding father of the Hurts TD club, seeing this line at +100 makes my mouth water. Hurts has been battling some injuries and has been kept more out of harm's way than is normal in recent weeks but he was being saved for this game. It is time for Philly to go all in and do what it takes to win. That means Hurts finds the endzone. Book it!
AJ Brown o72.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Stars will be stars part two. AJ Brown has been quiet this playoffs, mostly because his role has been minimized due to gamescript. Two non competitive games for the Eagles is not indicative of the role Brown will need to play in order for the Eagles to be successful in this game. With Chris Jones tearing up the scene on the defensive line for the Chiefs, Jalen Hurts will likely be under a lot of pressure and need to get the ball to his big bodied receiver to make contested catches all over the field. I like AJ Brown to put up an alpha performance and surpass this total with ease.
Sprinkles and Parlay Pieces (No more than 0.5U)
Travis Kelce Super Bowl MVP (+1600)
Both quarterbacks currently sit at +130, as this is typically a QB award, so this is obviously a longshot. However, the MVP is always on the winning team, so if the Chiefs win the game but Mahomes has some trouble (multiple turnovers, low ADOT/heavy reliance on running game, etc.) it stands to reason that another Chief will win the award. As the best offensive player on the team, Kelce could earn this award with a multiple TD performance and over 100 yards receiving. This is worth a sprinkle as there is little extended value in betting either QB for the award.
Anytime TD Parlay
Travis Kelce (-125)
Isiah Pacheco (+145)
Miles Sanders (+120)
AJ Brown (+120)
+2500
These are two high powered offenses that like to spread the ball around. Here are four scorers that I like in this game, two from each team. All have had success finding the end zone recently, sans AJ Brown which we covered earlier, and all four have largely defined and influential roles in their respective offenses. Mix and match with this play as you desire! Jalen Hurts is a good replacement at +100 if you are higher on his prop than one of the others.
Any Non-QB to have a 1+ Passing TD (+2000)
This deserves the absolute smallest of sprinkles. The Philly special making its return in the Super Bowl by the team who coined the name, or better yet, it being successfully executed against them, would be incredible poetry. Andy Reid is known for running insane and creative schemes and plays and Nick Sirianni is cocky and flashy. This prop could be a lot of fun!
Completely Ridiculous Props That You Should Only Bet For Fun
Coin Toss Heads (-105)
Tails never fails right? Except 4 of the last 5 years. Heads has a 48% all time output as well so it is due to continue statistical regression towards 50%.
(Ignore the people who say paying the vig on a coin toss is silly. Ever play roulette?!)
Gatorade Color Blue (+600)
Blue is the best flavor and neither team has this as their jersey color. No stats here just vibes. Let’s ride.
National Anthem o2:02 (-110)
Chris Stapleton is known for his southern drawl and generally slow tempo. Upon doing some research, this is a relatively median line being applied for somebody who should have a high over/under. Let’s sweat this one out together.
The Final Bet
Chiefs ML (+105) 5U
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Philadelphia is an amazing football team, there is no denying it. But Patrick Mahomes is not an underdog and for what may be the only time for the rest of his career, you have the opportunity to bet him as one in a Super Bowl. You also have the opportunity to fade the public and side with Vegas in the same bet. Roughly two thirds of the tickets and the public money is on the Eagles to win this game outright. This is the day Patrick Mahomes becomes a two-time Super Bowl Champion and you can’t tell me otherwise!
It has been a pleasure betting with all of you this season. My sincerest thank yous go out to everyone who has read, followed along or put faith in my plays. I hope I did well by you and I hope you were able to win some money this year! Let’s go out with a bang ladies and gents. Cheers!
The Fantasy Football by Broto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start/sit tool, player cards, exclusive statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more!
Check out patreon.com/Brotofantasy to access extra episodes, join our community, win prizes, and help keep the app free.
By Mike “Schiz” Schissel
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.