With Week 13 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on three buy-low targets and two sell-high targets heading into Week 14! Although the majority of redraft leagues have surpassed the trade deadline, the dynasty market is as hot as ever.
Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!
BUY LOW
Amari Cooper WR - Cleveland Browns
David Dermer - USA TODAY Sports
Deshaun Watson made his unwelcome return to a sold-out crowd of 72,220 Texans fans that joyously relished in the poor performance of their former franchise quarterback during his first game back after nearly two years removed from football.
Watson completed 12/22 pass attempts for 131 yards with no touchdowns and one interception, connecting with Amari Cooper on just four receptions for 40 yards. The Browns failed to mount a single offensive scoring drive with no member of the offense recording more than 45 receiving yards. Cooper did, however, lead the team with nine targets for a whopping 40.9% market share of the Browns' passing attempts.
The crafty veteran is on pace for a career year with excellent peripheral metrics, averaging a 26.6% target share (WR13), 28.1% target rate (WR12), and 2.15 yards per team pass attempt (WR13). Cooper has been quietly productive all season, registering 61 receptions (WR13), 832 receiving yards (WR12), and seven touchdowns (WR4). A disastrous offensive outing against the Texans darkens the outlook on the entire Browns offense but there should be brighter days ahead.
Expecting a sensational scoring shootout from Watson and company in his first game in a new offense after an extended layoff was a foolish endeavor to place hope in. Cooper has demonstrated a season-long ability to produce fantasy points far beyond his suggested value on the dynasty market. The former first-round wideout has several years of serviceable production in his range of outcomes. Cooper has minimal resale value beyond the production he places in your lineups but “buying” points is a surprisingly underutilized strategy in dynasty circles.
Cooper is posting weekly WR1 numbers that come at WR2 prices. At 28 years old, It is safe to assume his return on the market will likely never surpass his cost of acquisition. Conversely, there are few value-adjacent assets in his tier that are providing top-12 weekly scoring totals. Managers may wish to view Cooper as a “win-now” player but rebuilding rosters should not shy away from investing at the right cost as the Browns’ 2023 outlook is truthfully much more positive than the remainder of the 2022 season.
Darius Slayton WR - New York Giants
I will preface this by heeding that Darius Slayton should not be viewed as a supremely stable asset for managers in the rebuilding stage. The Giants veteran wideout can, however, provide playoff teams with a much-needed scoring boost for pennies on the dollar.
Sometimes dynasty trading is as simple as attacking the market for undervalued players that consistently score points. Not every transaction needs to be made with the intent of shaking the market with a blockbuster deal that involves acquiring a generational asset in a larcenous maneuver. Making small strides in roster value by increasing your weekly production at a menial cost is a surefire strategy for building a contending team with additional depth.
The Giants are suffering through yet another season marred by a laundry list of wide receiver injuries. Slayton has vaulted his way to the top of the depth chart as the undisputed top option amidst said injuries. The veteran receiver has finished below WR36 in only three weeks this season, averaging 11.2 PPR points per game with six or more targets in five of his last six games.
Slayton’s current market consensus value is adjacent to a late third-round/early fourth-round rookie draft pick. Prospects in that tier are long shots to ever surpass a double-digit PPG average at any point in their career. Slayton may not be the most exhilarating target to acquire but his cost is so low that contending managers can invest in a plug-and-play WR3 without risk.
Alexander Mattison RB - Minnesota Vikings
The 2023 offseason will reshape the landscape of the dynasty market for years to come. A stacked rookie draft class combined with a litany of high-profile free agents will have astronomic effects on player values and future trajectories. One of the many polarizing names set to become a free agent in 2023 is Vikings running back Alexander Mattison. A career backup to Dalvin Cook, the long-time second fiddle will finally get a chance to spread his wings as a contract-for-hire in hopes of earning a lead spot on another roster, assuming he does not elect to remain with the franchise that drafted him.
Backfields by committee are becoming the norm around the NFL. I believe the days of allocating a majority of the salary cap towards a single running back are becoming a philosophy of the past. An overall devaluing of the running back position among league front offices creates an increase of opportunity for high-performing underdogs to find meaningful roles in a new era.
At just 24 years old, Mattison has certainly done more than enough throughout his young career to warrant a starting gig as the leader of a committee. The former third-round selection has filled in seamlessly for Cook on several occasions, putting up week-winning production at ease as a mirror image of his veteran teammate with six games of over 100-scrimmage yards in the last three seasons.
Mattison has the obvious potential for a significant short-term value spike to close out the 2022 season should Cook be forced to miss time for any reason. The Vikings secondary back also has a wide open range of value past this season as he possesses both the youth and the track record to cause a significant market swing if he signs a fan-friendly deal in free agency.
SELL HIGH
Zonovan Knight RB - New York Jets
Zonovan “Bam” Knight erupted onto the dynasty scene over the past two weeks as an undrafted rookie free agent with back-to-back outings of over 100 scrimmage yards. Knight began his career as the only rookie in the 2022 NFL draft to surpass 100 scrimmage yards in their debut appearance. He followed that up with a well-rounded performance against the Vikings, finishing with 90 rushing yards on 15 attempts while catching five of five targets for 28 yards, surpassing the 100-yard threshold for the second time in as many contests.
Dynasty managers enamoring themselves with undrafted rookie running backs is a tale as old as time that rarely yields positive results. Time and again we have seen the trend of managers overvaluing rising rookie running backs despite a pantheon of historic examples suggesting the volatility connected to undrafted prospects. James Robinson and Philip Lindsay are the more recent players to fall victim to the harsh realities of value insulation. Knight is by no means immune to the same scrutiny. Breece Hall will not remain injured forever. Once the Jets' first-round rookie sensation re-enters the fold, his fellow teammates will return to the realm of irrelevance. Knight has minimal career value beyond a few games of positive production to close out the 2022 season.
Contending rosters may wish to hold Knight as they value his current scoring output more than a rebuilding manager that needs the value insulation of future draft capital. Nevertheless, I would suggest contenders make a pivot to an older, similarly producing asset while receiving an adjacent draft pick on top of the offer in return for Knight’s youth and rising perceived value on the trade market. An example of offer managers can consider is offering Knight for a package of D’Onta Foreman and a fourth-round rookie draft pick. In this scenario, managers can keep a similar scoring output while adding future roster value in the form of a future rookie draft pick.
James Cook RB - Buffalo Bills
The Dynasty market can be rapidly reactionary at times while simultaneously remaining unflappable in the tides of change. One game of above-average production is not quite enough to boost the value of face-planting assets such as Bills rookie running back James Cook. Two games, however, might cause a sufficient shift to open up a selling window on this one-dimensional specialist.
Cook has quietly recorded more scrimmage yards than teammate Devin Singletary in two out of the Bills' last three games. To quote the incomparable rockstar Meatloaf, “Two out of three ain’t bad.”
In Week 13, the Bills rookie received one more carry than his veteran counterpart, rushing for 64 yards to Singletary’s 51. The rushing totals were an encouraging bonus to Cook’s complete outing but the main causality of his minor increase in value comes from the long-awaited realization of his ability to catch passes. Cook earned an 18.2% target share (6 TGT) catching 100% of his opportunities for six receptions and 41 yards.
Rookie fever can last well into a player’s inaugural season with the smallest spikes in production causing monumental market shifts in favor of the younger asset despite a larger body of disappointment.
Managers can take advantage of these ebbs and flows by targeting desperate contenders or foolish rebuilders that are willing to blindly invest In Cook's recent point totals as opposed to his career range of outcomes.
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.