My Teaser picks went 3-0 last week, bringing our win percentage on individual legs to 76.92% on the season. Let’s keep this up and start 2023 strong!
Game of the Week
San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders O/U: 42.5
Themi’s Teaser: 49ers -2.5
Once upon a time, the 49ers were only favored by 5 points in this matchup. Derek Carr then got benched for former Patriot Jarrett Stidham. It is impossible to give an accurate value, or loss of value, with Stidham at QB. He only threw 13 times at the end of a shutout loss to the Saints this year and has only combined for 48 passes in his two other years in the league. Surprise factor can help underdogs win games that they typically have no business staying in, however, Carr was a decent enough QB in both DVOA (18th) and EPA+CPOE (21st) and the Raiders were still unable to consistenly win games. Stidham posted an EPA/play of -0.14 and a CPOE of -6.1 in the loss to the Saints but it was just one quarter of one game.
The 49ers defense is, unfortunately for the Raiders, the best in the league. San Francisco has shut down teams and piled on the points. The Raiders are not dominant enough on either side of the ball to compensate for this massive mismatch. Brock Purdy may be getting by because of the incredible situation he fell into but he is playing well enough to win games. He hasn’t thrown enough pass attempts to qualify for the main QB chart but his 13.7% DVOA would rank 7th among QBs with at least 200 passes.
Las Vegas has one of the worst defenses in the league and easily the worst pass defense. Against a 49ers team that can coast to double-digit wins, this isn’t the week to avoid the 49ers and Brock Purdy at a line that is still shockingly teasable. My picks are always 6-point teasers unless specified but this is a scenario where you pay up to make this a 7 point teaser to ensure a victory by a field goal. I would suggest pairing this with the Bengals because every point will matter in that game.
Underdog of the Week
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) O/U: 49.5
Themi’s Teaser: Bengals +7.5
Make no mistake, the Bills are the better team by nearly every advanced metric. They have the much better defense, a slightly better offense, and even with their struggles on the line, they block better.
Despite that, the Bengals are still an AFC heavyweight who have held their own and have won against some of the league’s best. They are also improving as the year goes on. Since Week 9, the Bills and Bengals are nearly tied in DVOA at 2nd and 3rd place, respectively. The Bengals have the best offense in the league in that span, although their defense is only 18th. Buffalo is more well-balanced but their pass defense has taken a hit.
The Bengals are only 1 to 1.5 point underdogs at home against a Bills team that has been favored by more than this spread in every game this season. The closest was Week 1 when they were 2 point road favorites and demolished a Rams team that we now know is putrid. The Bengals have proven that they should be one of the top-3 teams in this conference. They have beaten the Chiefs and Dolphins at home and only lost to Cooper Rush’s Cowboys by 3 on the road. Things have gotten a bit too close for comfort against some worse teams but they have almost always found a way to win, or at least keep it close. The metrics back them as a strong team.
With the home crowd behind them, take the Bengals to lose by a TD. I expect they will push that teased spread to its absolute limit.
Cleveland Browns (+2) @ Washington Commanders O/U: 40
Themi’s Teaser: Browns +8
Charlie Riedel/Associated Press
Washington’s only impressive win this season was a fluke win against the Eagles, and their only other win by more than 8 points was against the lowly Texans. The Browns are not a top team but they are certainly capable of hanging on with Washington as the Commanders attempt to figure out their QB situation to end the season. Carson Wentz will start but he has played slightly worse than Taylor Heinicke this year. Regardless of the QB situation, Washington and Cleveland are nearly even teams that make for a fun matchup.
The Browns offense has floundered thanks to weather conditions and a rocky start to Deshaun Watson’s return but they are still 11th in offensive DVOA. Defensively, they are 24th but are closer to middle-of-the-pack in the 2nd half of the year. The Commanders rank just 28th on offense but are 11th on defense, and this is likely to be a low-scoring affair where both teams grind it out on the ground. Cleveland is especially weak on the ground and Brian Robinson could find some much-needed success at the end of the year. Antonio Gibson won’t play but he hasn’t been heavily involved on offense in weeks. With better weather conditions for Deshaun Watson’s fitth game of 2022, he could find a bit more success against a Commanders defense that is slightly more susceptible through the air. Washington gets a key home advantage with the playoffs on the line, though, which is why this original spread is nearly worthless. Teasing this to a win by just about a TD for Washington makes the most sense for two teams who will find it hard to get much going.
The line has stayed firm at 2.5 and below, perhaps an indication that sharps won’t trust the Commanders to win by more than a field goal. That’s a good sign for this teasable line with a low point total.
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.