Winning just feels so good. We had a 3-0 week which brings our teaser leg win percentage to 72.5%. The Titans line moved to 1 or a PK just a few hours before kickoff but if you pivoted to the Eagles, you still won. To avoid that in the future, make sure you read this article when it goes out every Saturday of the NFL season.
Game of the Week
Cleveland Browns (-7) @ Houston Texans O/U: 46.5
Themi’s Teaser: Browns -1
Cleveland’s great offensive performances has come under Jacoby Brissett and it’s impossible to tell how Watson will look in his first NFL game in two seasons. It is likely that an already run-heavy Browns team will continue to pound the rock against a Texans run defense that ranks 31st in DVOA and 25th in EPA. Cleveland is just as bad on defense but they are a much more competent team overall and rank 3rd on offense when running the ball. Houston ranks 18th despite several encouraging performances from rookie RB Dameon Pierce. Cleveland flat out features better players on offense and has more depth. If Watson, Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and Nick Chubb all missed the game - and Njoku is expected to be out - then an offense of Jacoby Brissett, Donovan-Peoples Jones, Harrison Bryant, and Kareem Hunt are still capable of keeping pace with an awful Texans offense. Houston ranks dead last on offense that will now also miss WR Brandin Cooks.
Cleveland truly knows how to exploit a matchup. When they faced a top Bills run defense, Brissett threw for 324 yards, 3 TDs and 0 interceptions. When they faced a struggling Bucs run defense, Nick Chubb went wild for 116 yards and a TD. It hasn’t always been pretty, as their blowout losses to the Dolphins and Patriots have shown, but the Browns have put up several battles in outright wins and close losses.
The defensive struggles and Watson’s rust make this 7 point spread shaky. The Browns are still expected to win outright here. Houston has fallen to a number of awful teams this season and there is little they are doing that Cleveland can’t do better. Dameon Pierce gets a juicy rushing matchup but QB Kyle Allen may shoot the team in the foot by stalling far too many drives. Trust in Cleveland to pull it off.
Underdog of the Week
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) O/U: 53
Themi’s Teaser: Bengals +8.5
Aaron Doster/AP
The fact that this is the only underdog I like this week either points to a terrible dog week or some stupidity on my end. Perhaps it is a mix of both. As much as I would love to take the Bears or Giants, it seems like every single dog that vaguely fits the Wong teaser guidelines could easily get blown out. That is the case for the Bengals as well against the powerhouse offense Chiefs but Cincy is a really well-rounded team that is expected to get their star WR, Ja’Marr Chase, back. Despite the high point total, the Bengals are shaping up to be the best underdog this week.
The Chiefs may feature the best offense in the league but the Bengals are only a few spots behind. The Bengals are also the much better defense, ranking 11th in EPA/Play and 12th in DVOA while the Chiefs rank 19th and 18th, respectively. KC is equally as middling against both the pass and rush while the Bengals actually excel against the pass.
The Bengals have only lost one non-divisional game for a reason, and it was a 3-point away loss to the Cowboys. Granted, a Cooper Rush led offense isn’t nearly as talented as Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but keeping it close against an elite defense and competent offense while also beating other quality opponents shows a lot. The quality of play in their wins is reflected in their stats and the stats indicate that the Chiefs should win but only by a few points.
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) O/U: 38.5
Themi’s Teaser: Ravens -2.5
Please, Denver Broncos, prove me wrong. The Broncos have a great defense but a disgustingly awful offense. Even a middle-of-the-pack Panthers defense and bottom-5 offense clobbered the Broncos last week. The Ravens are home, returning from a disappointing trip to Jacksonville, wehre they blew another 4th quarter lead. Despite what looked like a mediocre offense and another defensive collapse, the Ravens remain one of the best teams statistically. They are a top-10 offense and while EPA ranks them 17th on defense, DVOA has them ranked 9th, a spot behind the Broncos.
Denver’s defense will always keep them in games but the matchup to watch is on the ground. Although the Broncos defense contends for a top-5 spot this year, they are pretty average against the run while the Ravens are one of the better run defenses. The Ravens are also the 2nd best rushing offense in the league, just behind the Eagles. That is in despite of injuries continuing to sideline their top guys. J.K. Dobbins is on IR and Gus Edwards has only played 3 games all season. Justice Hill and Kenyan Drake have been splitting carries in their place but Lamar Jackson leads the team in rushing attempts and yards. He continues to be the absolute key to victory for Baltimore and he is still winning games despite an uninspiring receiving group outside of TE Mark Andrews, who is playing banged up himself. This is simply a case of a great team playing a terrible one. The only question is whether the Broncos offense will magically click. I don’t think that’s worth betting on.
In a week defined by risky plays, it seems almost too foolish to pay up to make this a 7 point teaser but the line is rising nearly every day and reaching 10 points now. Sharp money is still mainly on the Ravens and we should side with them here.
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.