With Week 12 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on three buy-low targets and three sell-high targets heading into Week 13! Although the majority of redraft leagues have surpassed the trade deadline, the dynasty market is as hot as ever.
Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!
BUY LOW
Christian McCaffrey RB - San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey’s reduced and cautious usage since being traded to the 49ers has his fantasy managers frustrated. The former MVP candidate had received fewer carries than Elijah Mitchell in two consecutive contests, coinciding with the young running back’s return from injured reserve in Week 9.
Mitchell will reportedly miss the next six to eight weeks with a significant knee sprain, lending leeway to an increased opportunity share for his running back teammates.
McCaffrey regressed from averaging over 90.0% of the offensive snaps and 80.0% of the rushing attempts for the Panthers to 73.7% of the snaps and a 65.9% rushing share for the 49ers. Managers are foolishly overlooking the single defining attribute that separates McCaffrey from nearly all assets at the running back position.
The dual-threat dynamo is pulling an elite target share of 21.1%, supporting an uber-efficient scoring output with receiving production alone. McCaffrey has fallen from RB3 to RB6 in dynasty consensus rankings since joining the 49ers, suggesting solid value insulation with a slight window of opportunity to buy.
Any perceived value drop should be attacked regardless of cost. McCaffrey falls into a rare bucket of “buy high” in this recurring series. Contending managers are sure to receive production relative to value cost while rebuilding teams are still able to pivot to a younger asset of similar worth.
Elijah Moore WR - New York Jets
Elijah Moore is a prisoner of his own talent. The second-year wideout has flashed an electric talent and understanding of the game when given the opportunity to succeed. Unfortunately, those chances have been few and far between this season as fellow 2021 draft mate Zach Wilson fails to adapt the skills necessary to support an NFL offense.
The strong finish to Moore’s rookie campaign feels like a forgotten ghost of a memory. The Jets young receiver had just 18 receptions on 35 targets for 220 yards with zero touchdowns before entering Week 12. He had 18 receptions for 264 yards and two touchdowns from Weeks 11-13 alone in 2021.
With Wilson on the bench and Mike White under center, Moore caught both of his targets in Week 12 for 64 yards and his first touchdown of the 2022 season. Managers may question the strategy of “buying low” on a player after they finally post a game with positive production but Moore’s value on the trade market will remain unchanged until he consistently overcomes the dreadful weeks that drove his value into the depths of irrelevance earlier this season.
The court of public opinion on Moore’s career trajectory is not a positive one, allowing managers to capitalize on a scared market. His performance in Week 12 should merely serve as a reminder as to why this second-year wideout is worth the cost of acquisition.
Brandon Aiyuk WR - San Francisco 49ers
Every week Broto Fantasy recaps the highs and lows from each game in our recurring NFL Takeaways series by Themi Michalakis. Here is what Themi (@GridironGreek) had to say about Brandon Aiyuk after another solid showing in Week 12 -
“Brandon Aiyuk went the first five weeks of the season without a single WR3 or better performance. Since then, Aiyuk has finished as a WR3 or better in every single game. Solid matchups and a 2nd half surge could be playing up this narrative but it seems that with so many weapons to try to cover, defenses forget just how good Aiyuk is. His route-running is elite and he is starting to reap the benefits of his skills. With games against the Seahawks, Commanders, and Raiders to end the fantasy season, Aiyuk is looking like a last-second buy if your trade deadline is closing soon.”
I couldn't agree more with my fellow truther. The 49ers' remaining opponents combine to concede 4.4% over the expected average of fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Aiyuk has a top-10 strength of schedule for the rest of the season, offering contenders an excellent upgrade to their rosters for minimal cost.
Contenders should not shy away from viewing the 49ers budding WR1 as a viable asset. Aiyuk is perennially underrated in dynasty circles despite his youth, incredible rookie breakout and consistent floor of steady production in his third season (WR16 OVR/WR22 PPG). He leads the 49ers in receiving production (51 REC/652 YDS/59.3 YPG/6 TD) while earning a 95.0% snap share and 21.4% target share (74 TGT) with just two fewer targets than Deebo Samuel.
The dreaded second season we all suffered through is miles away in the rearview yet continues to hold a heavy shroud over Aiyuk’s ceiling of value. The 49ers' former first-round pick in 2020 is currently ranked as the WR27 on KeepTradeCut with a consensus value adjacent to an early 2023 2nd round pick.
Managers are unlikely to remove biases surrounding Aiyuk’s estimated career value but he will surely produce at a similar level for the remainder of the 2022 season and beyond. A future return on the market is not always necessary when the player in question produces points above the adjacent assets in question.
SELL HIGH
A.J. Dillon RB - Green Bay Packers
Dylan Buell/Getty Images
A.J. Dillon finally repaid the managers that remained loyal throughout his downfall with 17.8 PPR points (RB12), marking his first top-12 performance since Week 1. He rushed for 64 yards on eight carries (8.0 YPC) with one touchdown while adding three receptions on four targets for 24 yards.
Dillon remains lightyears behind Aaron Jones in the pecking order despite his outlier performance, evidenced by a 48.4% snap share, 44.5% rush share, and 7.3% target share through 12 games this season.
The Packers' 2022 campaign has been a horror show filled with despair and missed expectations. Dillon is no exception to the gray cloud of dysfunction that looms over this once-feared franchise. The third-year back is averaging a lowly 8.2 PPR PPG with 38.5% of his total production coming in Week 1 and Week 12.
Send offers out while there is a foundation of recency bias to help stabilize Dillon’s outlook from this perilous plummet down the dynasty rankings. Use whatever last-ditch efforts are needed to shed yourself from a talentless asset that has become a black hole of value insulation.
Adam Thielen WR - Minnesota Vikings
Adam Thielen handed Father Time a late notice in Week 12, turning back the clocks with a vintage receiving slash of 9 REC/10 TGT/61 YDS/1 TD. The veteran wideout secured a top-ten finish at the position (WR9), tallying a season-high 21.1 PPR points. Not only did Week 12 mark Thielen’s only WR1 fantasy outing this season, but it was also his only finish this year inside of the top 16 wide receivers and just his second performance inside the top 20.
The unstoppable ascent of Justin Jefferson as the NFL’s best wideout has snuffed a once respectable and consistent floor of production for his veteran teammate. Thielen is averaging an 18.7% target share, earning opportunities at the lowest rate of his career over the last six seasons. The gutsy grinder has established a career as one of the greatest undrafted wide receivers in NFL history, proving he still has a little left in the tank for his fantasy managers down the stretch with his throwback stat line in Week 12.
A tiny inkling of hope should be exactly what savvy managers need to help ignite a selling window for the long-time Vikings receiver. Thielen can only hold back the veils of age and decline for so long. Managers should be willing to take a potential loss in short-term production to increase the long-term value of their rosters.
Brian Robinson RB - Washington Commanders
Commanders rookie running back Brian Robinson and his highly-anticipated warm welcome to an NFL field has since been met by the cold shoulder of disappointment. The former fifth-year prospect from Alabama saw his first reps in Week 5, finishing as the RB64, albeit on limited snaps. Robinson has followed that up with increasingly inconsistent stat lines as he has failed to finish higher than RB15 over seven weeks of play.
Robinson finally broke out with the first serviceable game of his rookie season against the Falcons in Week 12, recording 20.5 PPR points (RB5). The rookie running back totaled 18 carries for 105 rushing yards adding his lone touchdown of the day via the air, catching two passes on three targets for 20 yards and a score.
The Commanders 2022 third-round pick handled 58.1% of the rushing opportunities on a 48.0% snap share, matching teammate Antonio Gibson with three targets (13.0%).
Gibson managed just 32 rushing yards on nine carries and 22 receiving yards on three receptions. Seeing Robinson swiftly surpass Gibson in all box score stats creates an interesting narrative to build offers around.
With the 2023 rookie draft class exhibiting elite upside, managers should attempt to flip Robinson to desperate contenders for a late second-round/early third-round rookie draft pick. His value on any roster build is virtually meaningless with any assumed increase being attached to volatile and unsustainable production.
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
The Fantasy Football by Broto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for a start/sit tool, player cards, exclusive statistics, usage, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more!
Check out patreon.com/Brotofantasy to access extra episodes, join our community, win prizes, and help keep the app free.
By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.