Themi's Teasers: Week 12

A flawless Week 11 brings our winning percentage to 70.27%. The Thanksgiving slate took a few games off the table but there are still games to like.

Game of the Week

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) O/U: 43

Themi’s Teaser: 49ers -2.5

The Saints won a close one against one of the worst Rams offenses that we have seen in a while. No Cooper Kupp or true RB1 and the team still combined for 336 yards of offense. This Saints defense should be their strong suit but it really has not been. They are 15th in both DVOA and EPA/Play but have allowed the Rams, Steeler, Bucs, and Panthers to score at least 20 points each. Competent offenses like the Bengals, Vikings, Seahawks and Cardinals have exploded against New Orleans. The 49ers just finished wiping the floor with the Cardinals in a 38-10 win. They have no shortage of superstars on offense and can explode at any time. San Francisco is one of the most well-rounded teams in the league and can keep up with anyone. The division is on the line so they are not going to be taking their foot off the gas. Expect similar results against a bottom-half Saints offense.

This line was perfect at -8.5 but the 9.5 point spread means you should only add this leg into a 7 point teaser. Pairing them with the Titans to make them +10.5 gives you much more value than bringing the Eagles to +0.5, for example. Making a favorite an underdog - or moving past the 0 - in a teaser is never ideal and should be avoided whenever possible. Gaining a key number advantage is your goal.

Underdog of the Week

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans (+2) O/U: 43.5 

Themi’s Teaser: Titans +7.5

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

When was the last time the Titans had a truly bad loss? You have to go all the way back to Week 2 when Tennessee got blown out 41-7 in Buffalo. Since then, they have won 7 of their next 8 games, only falling 20-17 to the Chiefs in overtime with Malik Willis at QB.

Tennessee’s defense has seldom entered the conversation for elite defenses that carry teams but they are 10th in DVOA and 12th in EPA/play, just behind the Bengals. Where they truly excel is against the run, where they are number one by a country mile. Looking back at the Chiefs game, Kansas City only amassed 14 rushing yards from their RBs. Patrick Mahomes took off for 63 yards and a TD. For those counting at home, that is the 2nd best rushing performance the Titans have allowed all season. Forcing teams to pass while also burning time with Derrick Henry has allowed the Titans to control the game flow.  The offense under Ryan Tannehill is good enough to compete with anyone and Treylon Burks' return from injury has been a big boost to the passing game. Tannehill is 10th in EPA+CPOE, although the Bengals defense excels against the pass. They are 24th against the run which continues to aid Tennessee. This should be a close game where both teams possess enough offense to get past a strong defense.

The Steelers and Cowboys found a recipe to frustrate the Bengals: Stop the damn run. That is not the only path to success but it’s an important first step. Bet on the defense at home here. As long as the line is at least 1.5, take it!

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) O/U: 46.5

Themi’s Teaser: Eagles -0.5

Here we go again. The Eagles miraculously covered the teased spread last week after going down 13-3 at halftime. The passing game was chipping away yardage with ease but penalties and bad play in the other half of the field limited them to only a few points. The Packers couldn’t put together a comeback on Thursday against the Titans. Tennessee wasted as much time as possible and made the most of nearly all of their opportunities. Even when they handed Aaron Rodgers multiple possessions in the last few minutes, the Packers offense couldn’t get anything going.

At this point, we know how good the Eagles are but they seem to falter when they can’t get the run game going. Thankfully, the Packers are 28th against the run in EPA and middle-of-the-pack against the pass. Their win over the Cowboys was hard fought but it's hard to imagine a repeat. Green Bay won't make this easy, especially with their receiving game starting to heat up, but banking on the talent and matchups has worked out so far.

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By Themi Michalakis