We were flawless last week but I can humbly only count 2 of the wins. My Jets pick was not widely available for long since Russell Wilson was ruled out at QB for the Broncos just a few hours after posting my picks. Not everyone could have gotten it in time but I will use it as a sign of things to come. With a much better slate, we have even more options in Week 8. Let’s make some money!
Game of the Week
Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills (-10.5) O/U: 47
Themi’s Teaser: Bills -4.5
Earlier in the week, this line was perfect for teasing, with the Bills favored by 8.5. Moving from -8.5 to -10.5 is a significant jump that makes this play tougher and but it is a super high percentage play and an exception in my book. The Bills are the best team in the league and there should not be a debate against that. Buffalo’s offense ranks 2nd in DVOA and EPA/Play despite having one of the worst rushing games in the league. Their defense is 1st in DVOA and 3rd in EPA/Play, and they’ve been dominant all season. Their only loss was a close one against the Dolphins in Miami when the Bills randomly forgot how to play offense at the end of the game.
Buffalo has buffaloed the middling and mediocre teams in the league and have outscored the Rams, Titans and Steelers a whopping 110-20. They are coming off of a bye after defeating the Chiefs at Arrowhead and their confidence has to be sky high. This has become a joke of a primetime game with the Packers collapsing. Green Bay has lost three straight to the Jets, Giants and Commanders. This might scream “too good to be true” but sometimes the books just cannot do anything more than pray for an upset. Take the Bills. It is not rocket science.
Underdog of the Week
Denver Broncos (+2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars O/U: 40.5
Themi’s Teaser: Broncos +8.5
The 2022 NFL season has decided that if you do not have an elite defense, you need to have one of the best offenses in the game to even be considered good. The Jaguars started the season looking great but have since fallen hard. Denver, on the other hand, has been an offensive disaster, only managing to score more than 16 points on one occasion. Their incredible defense has carried the team.
While the Broncos have not scored much, they also have not given up many points. No matter what advanced statistic you want to look at, Denver fits squarely in the top-3 defenses this year. Every single game has been decided by 9 or fewer points.
Jacksonville just has not shown that they deserve to stay in the upper echelon anymore. They have kept things close in their losses and started the season with two dominant wins but there has been nothing to show for it since. This is barely a top-half offense now and the Colts beat them in their second meeting, showing that great defense can overcome a barely passable offense. The Broncos won’t find the same offensive success that Indianapolis did but the Jaguars don’t seem to have the clutchness to come back when they start getting shut down. Expect a game similar to Denver’s Week 1 loss to Seattle. Trevor Lawrence just isn’t that guy right now.
New York Giants (+3) @ Seattle Seahawks O/U: 44.5
Themi’s Teaser: Giants +9
It keeps happening, folks. The New York Giants have an offense that runs on hopes and dreams and it has carried them to a 6-1 record. The Giants haven’t given up more than 23 points in a game all season. Their offense has been the hero, going toe-to-toe with the likes of the Cowboys and Ravens. The G-Men are 7th in offense DVOA and 8th in EPA/Play.
The Seahawks have been one of the biggest surprises this season. With Geno Smith at QB, Seattle has found offensive success on both sides of the ball. Rookie Kenneth Walker III recently stepped into the starting role after Rashaad Penny got hurt and has combined for 352 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs in his last three games. WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf rank in the top-25 receiving yards leaders on the season. The Seattle offense is even better than the Giants in almost every statistical category and they dare teams to try to keep up. The Chargers couldn’t last week, and with a 4-3 record that leads the NFC West, few other teams have either.
That begs the question, why the Giants? Aside from getting a 9-point buffer in a likely low-scoring game, New York is a team that is built to stay competitive against Seattle. The Hawks have been beaten on the ground, especially when dual-threat QBs and creative offenses are involved. The Seahawks lost to the 49ers, Falcons, and Saints. The Cardinals couldn’t get much done on offense against them but Kyler Murray ran for 100 yards. The Seahawks are tied with the Bears for the 3rd most rushing yards per game allowed, with the Giants just behind them. The difference between them is that Geno Smith is running more like Carson Wentz and less like Lamar Jackson. The Giants rushing offense is 3rd in EPA and is especially suited to mess with Seattle. Brian Daboll continues to get the most out of Daniel Jones and his legs. This game could go either way but it shouldn’t be more than a 9 point game in favor of the Seahawks.
Washington Commanders (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts O/U: 39.5
Themi’s Teaser: Commanders +9
Carson Wentz got hurt and Matt Ryan got benched. Sam Ehlinger and Taylor Heinicke will lead these teams in a matchup between two of the most mediocre offenses in the league but that seems to be where the Commanders excel. Washington’s biggest losses this year have come against the Cowboys and Eagles, two heavyweight and top notch defenses in their own division. They’ve otherwise kept games close despite poor QB play. The Colts also haven’t managed to prove they can beat teams by double-digit points with their offensive firepower. Their biggest win all year was by 7 points against the Jaguars, who previously beat them 24-0.
These two teams are nearly identical in terms of EPA. Washington ranks 27th on offense and 13th on defense and Indianapolis ranks 30th on offense and 14th on defense.
The sharps also think this line is too heavily in favor of the Colts. Indianapolis opened at -5.5 but are now reaching -2.5 on a few books. It is likely to hover around that area since 3 is such an important spread number. Confidence in Ehlinger taking over is understandably tempered for his first start. He is young and showed off his rushing ability in college but the NFL is a different animal and the offense is still putrid. This is the riskiest of the plays this week but Washington is available at a great price in what is projected to be the lowest-scoring game of the week.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5) O/U: 43.5
Themi’s Teaser: Eagles -4.5
Philadelphia Eagles
This was a strong contender for my ‘Game of the Week’. Like the Bills against the Packers, this is the best team in the conference coming off a bye and facing a middling opponent. The spreads for both games are identical on most books and while neither are conventional Wong Teaser choices, they are still picks that I am confident enough in to include. Philadelphia has not had to face many incredible teams but they have been truly dominant at home. Their multiple score wins over the Vikings and Cowboys show that they are not just beating up on the bottom-feeders. Philadelphia is the top team in the NFC and will be favored every single time they are healthy.
With an extra week of rest, the Eagles are going to be a public favorite for both the spread and moneyline. The Steelers are scrappy and keep themselves in games for far too long but the Dolphins were driving down the field on them without any contention last Sunday. The Eagles are the chalk play you take, especially when you can take the line down a few points.
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.