Every year, draft time rolls around and everyone gets excited about the incoming crop of new talent coming into the NFL. For fantasy football, both regular season and dynasty, this new infusion of talent is a chance to remake your roster and hit on long shots that can propel you to victories, but success is far from guaranteed.
For every Justin Jefferson, there is a Jalen Reagor and for every Trent Richardson, there is a Saquon Barkley. In order to get an idea of the true odds of rookies hitting on their pre-draft hype, we are going to take a look back at past draft classes to see how the top prospects have fared.
We will take a look at first-round QBs, WRs, TEs and first-and-second-round RBs to see if these prospects lived up to the hype.
To truly measure their fantasy football impact, we are going to use Fantasy Player Grades, a Broto exclusive metric that assigns a letter grade based on a player’s overall fantasy output and how it stacked up against others at their position. All players with 5+ games and 6+ ppg in a given season between 2015 and 2021 are placed on a 0-100 scale.
Let’s take a look at the 2017 draft class.
Catch up on previous Draft Class Reviews here: 2015, 2016
Round 1, Pick 2 - Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Chicago Bears
Career Average Fantasy Grade - F - (34.9) - 5 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - B- (79.2) - 2018
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - F (7.1) - 2022
Nearly all of what makes a quarterback great can be found between the ears. There is no tangible way to gauge a player’s drive and dedication to being great. Unfortunately, the Bears selection of Mitchell Trubisky would yield an all-too-familiar tale of first-round quarterbacks failing to succeed at the NFL level. The simple cost of acquisition compared to the other quarterbacks in this draft make this selection look that much worse. If the Bears would have stayed patient as opposed to trading up, they could have had a shot at Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson. Instead, the franchise elected to move up on draft night, selecting Mitchell Trubisky at 2nd overall. At no point in time has the North Carolina alum lived up to expectations. Trubisky’s best season came in his second year where he tossed 24 touchdowns for 3223 yards while adding 421 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Trubisky was released from the Bears in 2021, signing with the Bills in free agency where he would back up Josh Allen for one season before taking his talents to the Steelers. Trubisky started the team’s first four games before being benched for rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett. A career resurgence is highly unlikely for the former 2nd overall pick, leaving Trubisky’s peak fantasy grade at 79.2 (B-) with a career average of 34.9 (F). Certainly not the outcome you anticipate from such a high selection.
Round 1, Pick 4 - Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Career Average Fantasy Grade - B (83.5) - 6 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - A (93.9) - 2017
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - C (72.3) - 2018
Leonard Fournette’s career has been a rollercoaster of peak production followed immediately by valleys of disappointment. The former LSU star burst onto the scene as a rookie, recording 1040 yards on 268 attempts (3.9 YPC) while adding 36 receptions for 302 yards and 10 total touchdowns. Fournette finished his rookie campaign with 17.7 PPR PPG and a True Player Grade of 93.9 (A), achieving his highest career grade in his inaugural season. Curiously, the following year, Fournette set his lowest career fantasy grade with 72.3 (C) after managing just 439 yards on 133 attempts (3.3 YPC) in an injury riddled season (8 Games Played). In year three (2019), the former Jaguars running back posted an impressive 93.2 (A) True Player Grade; in year four (2020), his first with the Buccaneers, he topped out at 76.1(C+). In 2021, the veteran thumper composed a career year, posting 18.3 PPR PPG with a True Player Grade of 93.3 (A) while immediately retroceding into a useless plodder in 2022 with a True Player Grade of 72.6 (C). Fournette’s drastic inconsistencies from year to year have undeniably muddied a sensational start to his NFL career. The former fourth-overall selection was released from the Buccaneers this offseason and is in search of a new home to begin 2023. Fournette gives us a glaring example of a dying draft philosophy. Premier running backs are far too volatile with too short of a shelf life to spend top-10 NFL Draft capital.
Round 1, Pick 5 - Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans
Getty Images
Career Average Fantasy Grade - F (49.3) - 6 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - B- (78.5) - 2020
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - F (25.1) - 2022
Several poor wide receivers were selected in the first two rounds of the 2017 NFL Draft, although hindsight is always 20/20. The Top-5 draft selection of Corey Davis by the Tennessee Titans is a stark reminder that landing spot can have a drastic effect on a prospects trajectory. Although fantasy analysts like myself will always preach that you should bet on talent over situation, sometimes the situation is impossible to overcome. Davis checked all of the analytical boxes with size, athleticism and stellar collegiate production. Unfortunately, the low-volume passing attack of the Titans offense coupled with injuries and the arrival of fellow alpha wideout A.J. Brown capped Davis’ once promising profile.
Round 1, Pick 7 - Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Career Average Fantasy Grade - C (69.5) - 5 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - A- (88.7) - 2021
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - D- (58.0) - 2020
Mike Williams entered the NFL out of Clemson with all the hype in the world. Big-bodied with stellar athleticism and ability to jump for contested catches led the former ACC Champion to a top-10 paycheck on draft night. Unfortunately, the strengths in his game would also be his downfall as Williams has dealt with a myriad of injuries due to his reckless abandonment when challenging for deep balls. The ups and downs (no pun intended) of Williams’ career have been harsh but his overall talent when healthy is undeniable.
Round 1, Pick 8 - Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
Sporting News
Career Average Fantasy Grade - A+ (95.8) - 2 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - A+ (100.0) - 2019
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - A- (87.0) - 2017
Undeniably the best running back selected in the 2017 NFL Draft and arguably one of the greatest fantasy football assets to ever set foot on the gridiron. Christian McCaffrey’s 100.0 (A+) True Player Grade is the highest grade ever recorded by a running back (2015-2023). McCaffrey has dominated as a dual-threat RB since his first snaps as a pro. He has accumulated 6 consecutive seasons as an RB1 in PPG with a career PPR PPG average of 22.83. Now with the 49ers, McCaffrey remains an elite asset with no signs of slowing his production anytime soon. Although the era of top-10 running backs is likely behind us, McCaffrey proved that he was well worth the cost of acquisition on draft night.
Round 1, Pick 9 - John Ross, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Career Average Fantasy Grade - F (30.6) - 2 eligible season
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - D- (58.8) - 2019
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - F (1.7) - 2018
A tale as old as time. NFL owners and general managers get enamored with a player's speed despite a litany of red flags and negatives attached to said player’s prospect profile. John Ross joins a long list of receivers before and after him that skyrocketed their draft stock with an impressive NFL Combine and 40-yard dash. Ross still remains the fastest player in NFL Combine history but never topped more than 60 catches or 510 yards in any season. Apparently running in a straight line in your underwear is not entirely correlative to NFL success. Ross will always be remembered as one of the biggest busts in the 2017 NFL Draft and should serve as a historical talking point when managers consider investing serious draft capital into wide receivers that offer little upside beyond their pure speed.
Round 1, Pick 10 - Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Career Average Fantasy Grade - A+ (98.9) - 5 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - A+ (100.0) - 2018
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - A+ (97.9) - 2022
Patrick Mahomes is arguably the most talented quarterback to ever play the game of football. His unmatched arm-strength, accuracy and gutsy decision making has turned Mahomes into a bonafide superstar and future Hall of Fame candidate. Mahomes has never played a full season where he fell outside of the Top 10 quarterbacks in True Throw Value or True Player Grade. In fact, Mahomes has never had a single season in his NFL career below a True Player Grade of 97.9 (A+), receiving an A+ grade in all five of his eligible years. In 2022, the Chiefs franchise quarterback broke the NFL record for most yards in a single-season (5,608), doing so without a single wide receiver on his team surpassing 1000 yards. His propensity for weekly QB1 overall finishes and continuous placement in the top five overall players yearly makes the veracious gunslinger the most insulated and valuable singular asset in any and all leagues. Safe to say the Chiefs nailed this selection, showing why patience is a virtue not to be overlooked on draft day.
Round 1, Pick 12 - Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans
Career Average Fantasy Grade - B (82.4) - 5 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - A+ (99.2) - 2020
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - F (28.6) - 2022
Deshaun Watson would play in only seven games as a rookie, lighting the NFL world ablaze with 1699 passing yards on just 204 attempts (8.3 YPA) with 269 rushing yards and 21 total touchdowns (19 Passing, 2 Rushing) while averaging 24.7 PPG. In his first three seasons as a starter, Deshaun Watson tallied over 4000 combined yards, 30 combined touchdowns and >20.0 PPG in all three seasons. His public downfall bled onto the field with the Browns after Watson forced his way out of the Texans organization. The Former Clemson standout played in only 6 games in 2022 after serving an 11-game suspension. Watson appeared to be a shell of his former self, throwing for merely 1109 yards on 170 attempts with a dreadful 58.2% completion rating while adding a paltry 175 rushing yards with eight total touchdowns (7 Passing, 1 Rushing). It is yet to be seen if the former All-Pro quarterback can return to form in a new uniform but only time will tell. As it stands, the Texans undeniably made the correct selection from a talent-based perspective.
Round 1, Pick 19 O.J. Howard, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Career Average Fantasy Grade - F (28.3) - 3 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - D- (54.2) - 2018
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - F (14.5) - 2019
Spending first-round draft capital on a tight end is rarely a positive value selection. Very few rookie prospects at the tight end position are ready to make an immediate impact at the NFL level, even fewer are in the rarified air of unicorn talent that allows their fantasy value to be insulated beyond their rookie season. The cost equivalency of investing in tight ends post rookie contract compared to the replacement level talent that they provide while on their initial NFL deals cannot be understated. Despite their supposed first-round grades it is almost always cheaper to buy tight ends after their developmental years, providing both NFL and fantasy managers production above cost. O.J Howard played five seasons with the Buccaneers, eclipsing 550 yards in just one season. The uber-athletic tight end missed 23 games over his first four seasons amidst several injuries. In 2021, Howard played in his first full season (17 Games Played) but managed just 14 receptions on 21 targets for 135 yards and one touchdown. Howard’s career arc paints a perilous picture of the risk and lack of security a first-round tight end provides.
Round 1, Pick 23 Evan Engram, TE, New York Giants
Giants.com
Career Average Fantasy Grade - D (50.3) - 6 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - D+ (65.2) - 2019
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - F (11.3) - 2021
Please read above. Evan Engram surprisingly posted a historically great rookie season for a tight end, catching 64 of his 115 targets for 722 yards and six touchdowns, finishing with 11.6 PPR PPG as the TE4 in fantasy. Injuries kept Engram from reaching his full potential as he would play just 19 games over the next two seasons, although he managed to average 11.3 and 13.7 PPR PPG during that span. Engram would see a drastic downturn in production through the 2020 and 2021 seasons, his last for the Giants, before signing with the Jaguars in 2022. With new colors on his back the former first-round selection found a second lease to his NFL career, posting 73 receptions on 98 targets for 766 yards and four touchdowns, finishing as the TE7 in PPG (10.4). Engram is still in his prime at just 28 years old and should continue to make a positive impact on a Jaguars offense led by young superstar quarterback Trevor Lawrence. As far as the Giants are concerned, I am sure they wish they could have had this pick back, especially when considering the all-pro talent selected immediately after (CB Tre’Davious White, OLB T.J. Watt, S Jabrill Peppers, S Budda Baker, OT Ryan Ramczyk).
Round 1, Pick 29 David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns
Career Average Fantasy Grade - F (38.7) - 3 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - D- (51.9) - 2022
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - F (21.0) - 2021
At the risk of beating a dead horse, please read above x2. David Njoku was, and is an athletic monster of a tight end, capable of dominating as a receiver in any formation and offensive scheme. Unfortunately, the gamble of Njoku meeting his lofty potential cost the Browns a much needed first round selection as well as a lucrative extension despite an inconsistent career of flash-in-the-pan production. The Browns tight end did not crack double digit fantasy points until 2022, posing the question as to the purpose of using first-round draft capital on the tight end position yet again.
Round 2, Pick 37 Zay Jones, WR, Buffalo Bills
Career Average Fantasy Grade - D- (52.5) - 3 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - B- (77.8) - 2020
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - F (27.4) - 2021
The Buffalo Bills made a perceivably perplexing pick in the eyes of the public after selecting Zay Jones, a 4-year senior from the small-program school of Eastern Carolina University, with the fifth pick of the second round. Jones took six seasons to break out in the NFL, topping 700 yards for the first time in his career in 2022 as a member of the Jaguars. The big-bodied field-stretcher has surpassed double-digit fantasy points only twice during his NFL tenure and will likely serve as a menial complementary option to finish out his lackluster career.
Round 2, Pick 40 Curtis Samuel, WR, Carolina Panthers
Career Average Fantasy Grade - D (62.5) - 4 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - B (81.3) - 2020
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - D- (53.6) - 2018
Curtis Samuel’s promising dual-threat receiving and rushing prospect profile created some well-warranted hype for the former Ohio State alum. Injuries and coaching changes marred Samuel’s development and NFL production, capping the ceiling of what could have been a true game-changer. Samuel’s final season with the Panthers (2020) would mark the best of his career, catching 77 of 97 targets for 851 yards and three touchdowns while adding 200 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 41 carries. The veteran wideout had a positive start to the 2022 season but was ultimately buried on the depth chart by star wideout Terry McLaurin and budding first-round receiver Jahan Dotson. Samuel’s career will likely be remembered for single big-play highlights as his NFL tenure fizzles out.
Round 2, Pick 41 Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Career Average Fantasy Grade - A (87.5) - 5 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - A+ (99.2) - 2019
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - C (71.2) - 2018
Dalvin Cook joins a preposterously long lineage of first-round running back talents being selected in the second round of the NFL Draft. Cook has secured four RB1 PPG finishes over his six-year career, boasting a consistent three-down workload that yields production well above the replacement players selected around him. He has surpassed 1000 yards in four consecutive seasons while averaging 17.5 PPR PPG throughout his career. Cook has reigned as a surefire RB1 for over half a decade, proving that second-round draft capital is merely a formality when analyzing running back prospects.
Round 2, Pick 48 Joe Mixon RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Career Average Fantasy Grade - B (81.5) - 6 eligible seasons
Highest Single Season Fantasy Grade - A (94.1) - 2021
Lowest Single Season Fantasy Grade - D- (55.0) - 2017
Although Joe Mixon gets no love from the Broto Family due to his inflated costs on ADP boards, he has certainly been a staple of the Bengals offense and a top producer in the AFC for several seasons. Mixon has plodded his way to four RB1 finishes in PPR PPG since entering the league. With that said, Mixon has done little to prove he was worth his mid-second round price tag when comparing him to the top tier running backs that the 2017 NFL Draft class provided (McCaffrey, Cook, Kamara, Ekeler).
Other notable players:
*denotes an A- grade or higher in any single season in career
Round 2 - TE Gerald Everett, TE Adam Shaheen, QB Deshone Kizer, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster*
Round 3 - RB Alvin Kamara*, WR Cooper Kupp*, WR Tawan Taylor, WR ArDarius Stewart, WR Carlos Henderson, WR Chris Godwin*, RB Kareem Hunt*, QB Davis Webb, WR Kenny Golloday*, WR Chad Williams, RB James Conner*, WR Amara Darboh
Round 4 - WR Dede Westbrook, RB Samaje Perine, WR Josh Reynolds, WR Mack Hollins, RB Tarik Cohen, RB Joe Williams, TE Michael Roberts, WR Josh Malone, RB Donnel Pumphrey, WR Ryan Switzer, RB Jamaal Williams, QB Joshua Dobbs, WR Jehu Chesson, RB Wayne Gallman, WR Chad Hansen, RB Marlon Mack
Round 5 - TE Jake Butt, TE George Kittle*, TE Jordan Leggit, TE Jeremy Sprinkle, RB Brian Hill, RB Jeremy McNichols, WR Shelton Gibson, WR Rodney Adams, QB Nathan Peterman, WR Isaiah McKenzie, TE Eric Saubert, WR DeAngelo Yancey, WR Trent Taylor, RB T.J. Logan, RB Aaron Jones*
Round 6-7 & Undrafted - WR Noah Brown, TE Ricky Seals-Jones, WR Tim Patrick, TE Blake Jarwin, QB Cooper Rush, TE Robert Tonyan, QB Taysom Hill, TE Mo Allie-Cox, QB P.J. Walker, WR Keelan Cole, RB Austin Ekeler*, TE Dan Arnold, WR Kendrick Bourne, RB Matt Breida
JuJu Smith-Schuster stands out as a second-round steal for the Steelers. Although his meteoric rise has since come to a halt, Smith-Schuster posted consecutive A fantasy grades in his first two seasons.
The third round of the 2017 NFL Draft may very well go down in history as the greatest third round of all time. Alvin Kamara, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Kareem Hunt and James Conner have all produced top-12 finishes at their position. The unfathomable hit rate of offensive players in this round will remain a historic outlier for years to come.
Jamaal Williams stands alone as the best selection of round five. Despite backing up a later-selection in this very draft, Williams has produced at a respectable level throughout his NFL career, finally peaking in 2022 with 17 touchdowns as he broke Barry Sanders single-season record.
General Managers got tight end happy in round five with six tight ends going before the round six turn. George Kittle is the only name worth mentioning of the bunch as the long-time 49ers superstar has posted several TE1 seasons including one of the most impactful fantasy seasons ever produced by the position.
Aaron Jones far surpassed several of the talents selected before him, including his teammate Jamaal Williams. Jones has proven to be a true outlier after smashing his fifth-round draft grade as a superstar RB1 in the NFL.
Austin Ekeler was undeniably the number one steal of the 2017 draft process. Several players go overlooked and undrafted for a wide array of nonsensical reasons. Ekeler has silenced all detractors at every opportunity throughout his career as he has developed into one of the most lethal and effective running backs in the entire league.
By Matt Ward
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at BRoto Fantasy Football.
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.