Rookie Profile: Josh Downs

Josh Downs - WR - UNC

Listed Measurables:

Height: 5'9"

Weight: 171 lbs

Arms: 30 3/8"

Hands: 9 1/4"

Draft Age: 21.5 Y/O

Early Declare: Yes

Breakout Age: 19.1

2023 NFL Combine Grades:

40-Yard Dash: 4.48s

10-Yard Split: 1.49s

Vertical Jump: 38.5"

Broad Jump: 10'11"

3 Cone Drill: N/A

20 Yd Shuttle: N/A

Bench Press: N/A

Career Notes:

Sports Illustrated

Josh Downs grew up in Suwanee, Georgia where he attended North Gwinnett High School, breaking out as a star football and track athlete. Downs tallied 187 receptions for 3,019 yards and 32 touchdowns during his high school tenure. The versatile speedster garnered national recruiting attention with an invite to the 2020 All-American Bowl. He was handed a 4-star recruit rating from 24/7, Rivals, and ESPN, electing to commit to the University of North Carolina where he would spend all three years of his collegiate career.

Accolades:

• 4 Star Recruit

• Single Season Reception Record at UNC (101 REC)

• Single Season Receiving Yards Record at UNC (1,335)

• Led ACC in Receptions Twice (2021/2022)

• 2× First Team All-ACC

• Biletnikoff Award Semi-Finalist

Past Production/Collegiate Career:

Downs played primarily as a special teamer during his freshman season at UNC. He suited up for 10 contests but managed offensive snaps in only four, collecting seven receptions for 119 yards (17.0 YPR) and three touchdowns. Downs did, however, end his freshman campaign with an emphatic breakout game during the Orange Bowl, catching four passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns after several UNC stars (Dyami Brown, Michael Carter, Javonte Williams) declared for the NFL Draft.

With the previously mentioned players out of the fold, Downs was staring down the pipeline of a monumental 2021 season in his sophomore year. The new number one immediately made his name known as he recorded eight receptions for 123 yards and two touchdowns in UNC’s season opener. Downs would go on to shatter long-standing school records in both receptions and yards, topping out with 101 receptions for 1,335 yards and eight touchdowns.

Downs entered the 2022 season atop the depth chart as the unquestioned leader of the UNC offense but the loss of Heisman finalist Sam Howell caused minor regression for the star wideout. In his final year as a Junior, the talented wideout secured 94 receptions for 1,029 yards (10.9) and a career-high eleven touchdowns. Downs finished his career with 202 receptions, 2,483 yards (12.3 YPR), and 22 touchdowns across 34 games played, setting multiple UNC program records in the process and entrenching himself in the pantheon as one of the school’s most decorated athletes. After three seasons, Downs decided to declare early for the NFL, opting out of UNC’s bowl games in his final season.

Stats to Know:

Inside Carolina/Jim Hawkins

• 2 drops on 120 Targets in 2022.

• Generated 385 yards after the catch, forcing 12 missed tackles in his final season.

• Accounted for 42.6% of the team's receptions and 40.1% of the team’s receiving yards in 2021.

• Fourth most receiving yards in UNC history despite only three years of play.

• Third most receptions in UNC history despite only three years of play.

2020 Stats:

10 GP

7 REC

2.8% REC Share

10 TGT

2.8% TGT Share

119 REC YDS (3 TD)

3.2% REC YDS Share

17.0 YPR

0.33 REC YDS/TPA

0.14 REC YDS/TA

10.0% REC TD Share

3.1% OFF TD Share

2021 Stats:

13 GP

101 REC

42.6% REC Share

148 TGT

39.1% TGT Share

1335 REC YDS (8 TD)

40.1% REC YDS Share

13.2 YPR

3.53 REC YDS/TPA

1.50 REC YDS/TA

30.7% REC TD Share

14.2% OFF TD Share

2022 Stats:

11 GP

94 REC

27.2% REC Share

120 TGT

22.9% TGT Share

1029 REC YDS (11 TD)

23.8% REC YDS Share 

10.9 YPR

1.96 REC YDS/TPA

1.01 REC YDS/TA

28.9% REC TD Share

17.7% OFF TD Share

Collegiate Career Totals:

32 Games

202 REC

278 TGT

2483 REC YDS

22 Total TD

8.7 YD aDOT

1007 Snaps

922 Routes

2.5 YPRR

89.1% Slot Rate

8.1% Wide Rate 

Collegiate Career Bests:

39.1% TGT Share

30.2% TGT/Route

100.0% Route Share

3.53 REC YDS/TPA

1.50 REC YDS/TA

2.80 YPRR

Scouting Report:

NFL Draft Grade: 6.41 (Will Become Good Starter Within Two Years)

Next-Gen Draft Grade: 86 (Good)

Scouting Strengths:

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

• Burner speed down the sidelines with instantaneous acceleration.

• Mean over the middle. Has been a lethal red zone threat his entire collegiate career and plays much bigger than his size in tight windows.

• Versatile route tree with a special feel for the slot position.

• Makes any QB look good, posting stellar QB ratings when targeted in all three years at UNC.

• Shifty feet and body control with excellent footwork along the sidelines.

• Knows how and when to change his tempo, creating separation from defenders both with long speed and deception.

Scouting Weaknesses:

• He's small, real small. Official measurements came in well below the generous measurements listed at UNC.

• Had some issues with tracking the ball deep despite torching defenders with elite speed.

• Continuously shoved around in press coverage, might need manufactured touches to avoid it.

• Deals with consistent size mismatches and will continue to do so at the NFL level.

• Lacking solid hand size and strength, dropped some easy bullet passes and perfectly placed long balls throughout his career.

• Press coverage is more like smash coverage on Downs. Struggles against strong cornerbacks off the line of scrimmage.

• Needs to work on finishing routes with his snap acceleration abilities.

• Majority of his career was spent playing from the slot position, bringing in questions about his ability to win on the outside. 

• Such a bad run blocker that it may affect his snap participation as a pro.

Expected Draft Capital:

• Projected Round: 2nd

• EDP: 36.3

• Consensus Position Rank: WR6

Perfect Fit/Landing Spot:

Indianapolis Colts

Baltimore Ravens

Kansas City Chiefs

Consensus Landing Spot:

Carolina Panthers

Top NFL Player Comparisons:

Jaylen Waddle

Josh Palmer

Garrett Wilson

Kadarius Toney

Tyler Lockett

Curtis Samuel

Hunter Renfrow

Ted Ginn Jr.

*All Comparisons subject to change with NFL Draft capital and landing spot

Future NFL/Fantasy Outlook:

Downs works effortlessly in motion both before and after the catch. He possesses elite footwork within his route breaks to create separation and rarely misplaces himself when working along the sidelines. 

His crafty speed and use of patience have led to two consecutive seasons of elite production at UNC as a target-hogging slot receiver. Anticipating a developmental change in trajectory for Downs is foolhardy. He profiles best as an elite special teamer and high-target slot receiver with little upside as a true alpha on the perimeter. This is not an indictment of the player, moreover an attempt to bring light to the fact that real-life scouting evaluations do not always correlate to elite fantasy production.

Downs fits the bill of several highly productive slot receivers before him such as Amon-Ra St. Brown, Cooper Kupp, and Keenan Allen. He has proved that despite his size he can be productive in any offense with any quarterback.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at BRoto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward