With Free Agency underway, Broto is here to recap the biggest moves in the fantasy football landscape!
This page will be updated daily, so make sure to check back in!
QB Jimmy Garoppolo: San Francisco 49ers to Las Vegas Raiders - 3 Years/$67.5M
ESPN
The Raiders are working hard to make sure they secure their QB for next season as several teams have been scrambling to find their 2023 signal caller. While many will be testing their luck via the draft, teams like the Giants and Seahawks have given generous extensions to their QBs. The Saints also secured former Raiders QB Derek Carr after Carr demanded a release. Rather than entering the sweepstakes for Aaron Rodgers or going after a veteran like Ryan Tannehill, Vegas opted to sign Jimmy Garoppolo to a 3-year deal.
Raiders Impact: We don’t have a large sample of what Jimmy can do outside of a well-run system and a stacked team. The Raiders boast some great weapons but they have a questionable defense in an AFC West that won’t be getting any easier. Davante Adams, Darren Waller and Josh Jacobs are not receiving a real upgrade from Derek Carr but the most important thing is that they have a capable veteran who can make sure they remain fantasy relevant.
Josh Jacobs should continue to get a big workload in the passing game as Jimmy Garoppolo has consistently ranked towards the bottom of the league in aDOT. Garoppolo has taken advantage of multiple elite weapons in San Francisco and should continue to do so in Las Vegas, where he reunites with former Patriots OC and QBs coach Josh McDaniels.
49ers Impact: Fantasy managers should not fret. Jimmy G was expected to depart and Kyle Shanahan proved he can make an offense operate no matter who is under center. Expect similar production to last year. Without much early draft capital, it is unlikely that the Niners grab a high-end rookie that will threaten anyone’s success.
WR Robert Woods: Tennessee Titans to Houston Texans - 2 Years/$15.25M
Texans Impact: Is Brandin Cooks gone? The veteran WR has expressed his frustration and is a big trade candidate this off-season. Cooks was targeted 93 times, the most on the team, despite only playing 13 games in a down season. Cooks has had six 1,000-yard receiving seasons in his nine years in the league but has bounced from team to team and he may find a new home once again. Robert Woods will likely take his spot as the top wideout and target earner in this offense, but Nico Collins has drawn at least 60 targets in each of his first two years in the league. With decent draft capital backing him, Collins should be the team’s WR2 with Woods entering as a short-term veteran option. It is unlikely Woods’ 2023 season results in high end fantasy production as it more likely he is a waiver wire type of fantasy asset.
Titans Impact: Woods led the Titans with 93 targets last season but only managed to convert those targets into 53 receptions, 527 receiving yards and 2 TDs. Rookie WR Treylon Burks produced similar numbers on almost 40 less targets. Woods was a passable veteran for a run-heavy Titans team, but it seems they are ready to unleash Treylon Burks. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine could see a minor uptick in targets and he has been a solid contributor for the past two seasons. Austin Hooper, if he gets re-signed, and rookie standout Chigoziem Okonkwo will lead the TE position, and one or both of them should finish in the top-5 in team targets.
Burks will likely remain the only consistent pass catcher in this offense.
TE Jonnu Smith: New England Patriots to Atlanta Falcons - Trade Acquisition
Falcons Impact: Falcons HC Arthur Smith was Jonnu Smith’s TE coach and OC in Tennessee. They are now reuniting in Atlanta where Smith will likely be asked to block way more than he is asked to run routes. This is a run heavy team with Drake London and Kyle Pitts set to command the vast majority of targets. Smith should be a TE2 at best and is not worth rostering despite his beautiful athletic profile.
Patriots Impact: New England’s offense ranked 24th in EPA/Play last season led by struggling sophomore QB Mac Jones, who finished 28th in EPA+CPOE composite while throwing to an injured, below-average WR group. Despite the need for playmakers, Jonnu Smith was able to muster just 27 receptions and 245 yards in 14 games on 38 targets.
Until the Patriots show they can be more pass-friendly for fantasy purposes, this deal does nothing for Hunter Henry’s value. He was the TE21 in total half-PPR points and only averaged 5.2 PPG, 28th in the league. Jonnu’s departure will not skyrocket him into TE1 territory.
RB Mike Boone: Denver Broncos to Houston Texans - 2 Years/$3.1M
Texans Impact: Boone will compete for the RB2 role on a rebuilding Texans team that should feature Dameon Pierce once again. Pierce ran 220 times in 13 games before going down with an ankle injury in Week 14. Dare Ogunbowale, Royce Freeman and Rex Burkhead split carries outside of Pierce but none proved much with their play.
Mike Boone has found mild success as a backup on both the Broncos and Vikings and has the chance to emerge as a valuable and undervalued handcuff next season.
Broncos Impact: Boone had his best season since 2019 but only touched the ball 33 times for 198 yards for the Denver Broncos.
Expect the Broncos to re-sign veteran RB Latavius Murray and likely bring in another cheap RB to help ease Javonte Williams in following his ACL tear.
QB Taylor Heinicke: Washington Commanders to Atlanta Falcons - 2 Years/$20M
Falcons Impact: Don’t panic just yet Falcons fans, this could just be a precautionary measure. There are still a lot of teams fighting to draft the top 4 QBs in this year’s draft and the Falcons could still get jumped and miss out on one while sitting at the 8th overall pick. If that does happen, expect Atlanta to go into the season with the Ridder/Heinicke combo at QB.
Desmond Ridder only played in 4 games last season, passing for 177 yards per game and throwing 2 TDs to 9 INTs, while rushing 16 times for 64 yards. The second year QB will likely enter the season as the starter but If he struggles or gets hurt, expect Heinicke to take over in what should result in no drop off for the skill players’ fantasy values. I would not move the needle on any Falcons players just yet as the QB of the future could still be joining the team in the draft. Lamar Jackson is still available too, if they want to pay him, though that is looking more and more unlikely.
Commanders Impact: It is Sam Howell’s time to shine. The 5th round rookie QB only started a single game last season - a Week 18 win over the division rival Cowboys. Howell showcased some great dual-threat ability and even showed off his deep ball a few times. He was still expectedly erratic passing and rushing at time in the game, but apparently Howell showed enough for the Commanders to give him a shot at being their starting QB in 2023. WRs Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson could feast in this offense if Howell proves to be a dynamic starting QB, however, that is a big if.
WR Jakobi Meyers: New England Patriots to Las Vegas Raiders - 3 Years/$33M
Raiders Impact: Meyers is the new “constantly underrated” WR in the NFL. Going undrafted after an underwhelming career at NC State, Meyers eventually became a big-time target earner, totaling 126 targets in his 3rd season with the Patriots. His production has always been a bit underwhelming for the number of targets he sees but he is yet to play with a legitimate, established QB. Like new Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Meyers reunites with former Patriots OC Josh McDaniels. It is going to be hard for Meyers to stand out with Davante Adams, Darren Waller and Josh Jacobs already in Vegas but the WR2 role has now all but been secured by the former UDFA. We saw Mack Hollins find mild success last season as the team’s WR2 for most of the season, despite an underwhelming career, which provides hope for Meyers as a potential WR3 in a familiar environment under HC Josh McDaniels.
Patriots Impact: The Patriots are near locks to draft a WR now. Brandin Cooks and DeAndre Hopkins are interesting short-term options for the team but there are some good receivers in this class to consider. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has stood out among his class and with a few good QBs available, he could fall to the Patriots. It is hard to predict who the assets to target are in this offense outside of RB Rhamondre Stevenson, which is why you are better off avoiding any of the current replaceable veterans on this abhorrent passing attack.
Michael Thomas: Stays with New Orleans Saints - 1 Year/$10 Million
Saints Impact: *If he stays healthy* has been the asterisk next to Michael Thomas’ name for a few years now. The 2019 receiving leader has only played 10 games over the past three seasons but could still shine at 30 years old on a much different-looking Saints team. Derek Carr joins the team and stellar rookie Chris Olave looked like a legit WR1 last year. Alvin Kamara just restructured his contract to clear cap room but still has pending legal issues that could put his 2023 season in jeopardy.
If all goes right, this offense could explode, but another Thomas injury and a suspension for Kamara could derail New Orleans’ plans. Even a battered Saints team could compete for a playoff spot in a horrific NFC South. Olave would obviously benefit from this, playing alongside a player who has been an alpha before, drawing coverage away from the big-play threat. Jarvis Landry probably won’t be back but WR Rashid Shaheed and TE Juwan Johnson will still be under contract and have shown flashes of production in their limited usage. If Thomas were to go down, those two will be worthwhile free agents for fantasy football but provide little value right now, even in an offense that should look much better with Derek Carr at the helm. Upgrade Olave and start him with confidence. Thomas and Kamara are in line for great seasons but carry a lot of risk.
TE Darren Waller: Las Vegas Raiders traded to New York Giants for 3rd round (100th overall) pick.
Giants Impact: When a giant (no pun intended) trade like this goes down, everything changes. Daniel Bellinger, who had a pretty solid rookie season for an injured rookie TE, will now take a backseat to Waller. That’s probably better for Bellinger’s development and it drives Waller's stock up a lot in this offense. The Giants and HC Brian Daboll is making moves to surround $160 Million QB Daniel Jones with plenty of weapons to succeed and make another playoff push in 2023. Until a true alpha WR is added, expect Waller to act as the team’s top target alongside WR Sterling Shepard and RB Saquon Barkley to lead the rest of the team. This team has a crowded but confusing WR room that includes 2022 rookie Wan’Dale Robinson, so it will be hard to justify drafting anyone outside of Waller with any confidence.
Raiders Impact: Foster Moreau has backed up Darren Waller for 4 years now but will get the chance to become a full-time starter if things stay the same. In the few games he has played without Waller, Moreau has found some success, finishing as a TE1 six times in the past 2 seasons. Even in his games with high target numbers, he hasn’t been incredibly productive and has relied on TDs to evade obscurity. With Jakobi Meyers in the mix, Moreau isn’t a locked-and-loaded TE1 but he has a weekly upside with new QB Jimmy Garoppolo added to the mix. Expect Moreau to be a high-end TE2 who will occasionally produce mid-level TE1 numbers.
RB Rashaad Penny: Seattle Seahawks to Philadelphia Eagles - 1 Year/$1.35M
Eagles Impact: Did you know that former Eagles RB Miles Sanders had his best season ever in 2022? If you rostered him in fantasy, it sure didn’t feel that way at times. Sanders finished with 259 carries, 1,269 rushing yards and 11 TDs. His receiving production has dropped every year, though, and he only finished with 20 receptions and 78 receiving yards after hauling in 50 catches for 509 yards and 3 TDs as a rookie. His inconsistency in 2022 was evident, as he finished top-5 in half-PPR points on 5 separate occasions, including 3 top-3 finishes but had 8 games as an RB4 or worse. Penny is coming off an injury but is in line to take Sanders’ work, about 50% of all rushing attempts. QB Jalen Hurts and RB Kenneth Gainwell will be other threats for rushes and free agent RB Boston Scott could still re-sign with the team. The Eagles are a fun offense that likes to run but Penny is shaping up to be another wildly inconsistent player if his roll remains similar to Sanders’.
Seahawks Impact: Kenneth Walker III shined in his rookie year, overshadowing a nice start to the season by the former first-round pick, Penny. In the first five weeks of the season, Walker averaged 5.75 carries per game and never saw more than eight total. Following Penny’s Week 5 injury, Walker exploded and immediately received 21 carries in Week 6. From that point forward, it was Walker’s backfield to dominate. Penny was probably not going to see a major role if he re-signed with Seattle but he was still a threat to take touches away after a roaring end to 2021 and a few great games to start off 2022. Kenneth Walker III runs this backfield, not that anybody thought otherwise.
WR Allen Lazard: Green Bay Packers to New York Jets - 4 Years/$44M
Jets Impact: Lazard joins an already strong receiver room in New York but could have a chance to stand out if Aaron Rodgers gets dealt to the Jets. Corey Davis is also a cut candidate and Elijah Moore trade rumors have been rumbling. ESPN’s Adam Schefter has reported that the Jets could also be interested in signing WR Randall Cobb and TE Marcedes Lewis, two Packers veterans who are close with Rodgers and showed that they had a bit left in the tank last season. These moves are clearly being used to sway Rodgers to agree to a trade to New York. If Rodgers does join the team, Lazard could push for a WR2 role beside Garrett Wilson, but Elijah Moore is still a young, talented WR who could stand in his way, if not traded. All pass catchers would get a boost catching passes from Rodgers but you can expect a lot of variance from week-to-week for any players outside of Wilson and a healthy Breece Hall. This long-term contract could indicate that this move is not only for Rodgers, but for the Jets to lock down their WR2 of the future as well. At the very least, Lazard is a very good run blocker.
Packers Impact: Jordan Love loses a weapon here but if the Packers are truly committed to him they will bring someone else in. Christian Watson can be a dynamic player but would greatly benefit from not having to play as the only legitimate option in the aerial attack. Rookie WR Romeo Doubs was getting peppered with targets when he was healthy and had an aDOT closer to Randall Cobb, who is being connected to the Jets in anticipation of an Aaron Rodgers trade. Watson will continue to be a super high-upside WR but his ADP will likely reflect his risk with Jordan Love at QB.
RB Samaje Perine: Cincinnati Bengals to Denver Broncos - 2-Years/$7.5M
Broncos Impact: Mike Boone’s departure was a small glimmer of hope for Latavius Murray as he reunited with HC Sean Payton. That dream isn’t dead but the 33-year old RB may not get another contract with Denver now. Murray led all Broncos RBs with 34 targets last season but that’s only because Javonte Williams went down. Williams was targeted 22 times in only 4 games, and Melvin Gordon was targeted 32 times in 10 games. Now Samaje Perine joins the backfield, who is a bit younger than both and could focus more on receiving work while Williams gets back to full strength. He will be a strong handcuff for the next two seasons who will be a decent flex play in a pinch and a good RB2 if he needs to carry the bulk of the workload early in 2023. Sean Payton is not a miracle worker but he can make the Broncos offense really fun. Downgrade Murray (if he re-signs) in half and full-PPR and draft Perine as a great cuff and solid PPR flex play.
Bengals Impact: Perine didn’t get many carries when Joe Mixon was healthy but he was invaluable as a pass-blocker and carved out a nice role as a receiving back. He even out-snapped Joe Mixon in the hard fought AFC Conference loss to the Chiefs. Outside of Mixon, Chris Evans is the only RB under contract with Trayveon Williams in the mix for an inexpensive 1-year deal. This move could mean that the Bengals are leaning towards keeping Joe Mixon despite two massive cap hits incoming. There has been speculation that Cincinnati will draft an RB but moving Perine could indicate otherwise. It would be strange to get rid of a capable veteran and also draft an RB without another solid veteran to back him up. For now, this is good new for Mixon and his receiving work but it is very likely someone is still brought in to play a role like Perine’s. Perhaps a Jerick McKinnon.
RB David Montgomery: Chicago Bears to Detroit Lions - 3 Years/$18M
Lions Impact: It is very unlikely that fan favorite and locker room extraordinaire Jamaal Williams re-signs with the Lions now, which is a shame because of how well he seemed to fit that organization. He is also a solid RB who just broke the Lions rushing TD record in a career season. Maybe the two-year age difference was the biggest factor here.
Can D’Andre Swift catch a break? Swift has been able to produce throughout his career despite constant competition in the backfield. His high usage as a receiving back has helped bolster his fantasy production. Unfortunately, he has never topped 620 rushing yards or 1100 scrimmage yards in a season and his workload will be split with Montgomery in town. We know that two talented backs can succeed as fantasy football options in this offense but only an injury would lead the way to consistent high-end RB1 production for either player. Swift doesn’t get a significant downgrade for 2023 but it is becoming abundantly clear that the team does not want him to be a bellcow.
Bears Impact: Khalil Herbert looked better than David Montgomery last year, only rushing for 70 fewer yards on 72 fewer carries. QB Justin Fields will still be a massive rushing threat but without much other competition in the backfield, this is Herbert’s job to lose. His receiving usage is concerning, however, especially since he only caught 10 receptions in his best college season. Herbert will benefit more in half-PPR leagues but it is obvious that this move pushes him into the RB1 conversation.
QB Aaron Rodgers: Green Bay Packers to New York Jets - Trade To Be Completed
Jets Impact: Garrett Wilson is a winner. The 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year should light it up in 2023 with Aaron Rodgers under center. The QB carousel in New York stops, at least for now, and the Jets offense will look beautiful even with an elder Rodgers under center. Losing star WR Davante Adams hurt the 3-time league MVP but he still managed to throw for 3,695 yards and 26 TDs with a skill position group that looked significantly better at RB than WR or TE.
Wilson is already being ranked highly but the fantasy football community may still be too low. The sky's the limit now. Upgrade all Jets pass-catchers, including RB Breece Hall when he fully recovers from his ACL tear. Upgrade Wilson like you’ve never upgraded a WR before. Lazard should find immediate success as the team's WR2.
The Jets are real.
Packers Impact: Are you brave enough to draft any Packers next season? RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon should be downgraded, especially in half and full-PPR leagues, after setting career-highs in receiving. They’ll still be great options but the offense as a whole could fall apart. Jordan Love has been patiently waiting for his time to shine and truly take over this Packers team after being drafted 26th overall in the 2020 draft. The Packers seem confident in him, though, so taking a shot on someone like Christian Watson in the mid to late rounds won’t sink your team. The range of outcomes is just too high to stomach drafting anyone with confidence and managers should be hesitant for now.
TE Hayden Hurst: Cincinnati Bengals to Carolina Panthers - 3 Years/$21.75M
Panthers Impact: The Panthers have not had a passable fantasy TE asset since Greg Olsen. Tommy Tremble's 35 targets in 2021 are the most by a Panthers TE since Olsen left. This will be Hurst's 4th team in six seasons but he has gotten decent target shares in both Atlanta and Cincinnati. Hurst finished as the half-PPR TE9 in his best season in 2020 and now joins a Panthers team itching for weapons. He won't be the only player added but his floor is a mid-range TE2 with some weekly upside.
Bengals Impact: Don't expect much from the Bengals just yet. Their top 3 WRs are still under contract and are the most talented receiving options in Cincinnati. Samaje Perine and Hayden Hurst leave a void, though, and we should expect the Bengals to bring in someone else at some point. Mitchell Wilcox, Devin Asiasi, and Drew Sample saw a few targets last season behind Hurst but none of them are expected to maintain the target share that Hurst commanded. Until the team brings in another pass-catcher, there is no reason to upgrade or downgrade the top WRs.
QB Baker Mayfield: Los Angeles Rams to Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 1 Year/$8.5M
Buccaneers Impact: The Bucs were almost guaranteed to bring in a QB after Tom Brady's retirement with Kyle Trask atop the depth chart. Since Tampa Bay made the playoffs their chances at snatching a top QB in this draft are slim to none unless they make a big move to trade up, which seems very unlikely. The Bucs are still in play to bring in another FA QB or draft one later in the draft, but Baker is currently set to battle Kyle Trask for the starting job. Baker will have better weapons than he did in both Carolina and Los Angeles but he is unlikely to bring out the best in Chris Godwin, Mike Evans or Rachaad White every week. This QB competition is dreadful and won't help the offense’s fantasy appeal.
Rams Impact: As long as Matthew Stafford is healthy, there is no reason for concern for any pass catchers in LA. The team would benefit from adding another solid backup, though.
RB Ezekiel Elliott: Cut From Cowboys
Cowboys Impact: You know this contract is bad for the team when Jerry Jones is finally willing to let go of his precious first round draft pick. Elliott isn't at his peak anymore but can still be a goal-line type RB. Tony Pollard now gets the chance to shine in a bell-cow role but it would not be surprising to see Jones add a new RB to their RB room. Things are looking up for Pollard for now and we've seen him put up high-end RB1 numbers when he's given a full workload. As it stands, you could justify drafting him in the top-6 RBs for 2023.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster: Kansas City Chiefs to New England Patriots - 3 Years/$33M
Patriots Impact: JuJu is not an alpha and that's fine. Not every player can be the best of the best and JuJu is still a good player. Playing alongside Antonio Brown in a stellar Steelers offense was the height of his career as he drew 166 targets and finished the year with 1,426 receiving yards. Brown's dramatic departure pushed JuJu into a WR1 role where he was unable to excel. He has also dealt with a litany of injuries over the last several seasons. The Patriots don't have a star WR on the team nor do they boast a top-notch passing attack. Until someone else is brought in, JuJu should be downgraded, even if we believe he will receive a massive target share.
Chiefs Impact: Jordan Addison to the Chiefs? It's looking more and more likely that Kansas City will draft a top WR with the 31st overall pick in the 2023 draft. We know that Mahomes can shred defenses without an elite WR but it will certainly help, especially as TE Travis Kelce inches closer and closer to retirement. This move doesn't immediately open the door for a Chiefs receiver to shoot up in value but if you had to bet on one, it would be Kadarius Toney. The youngster is a playmaker and will greatly benefit from playing a full and (hopefully) healthy season catching passes from Patrick Mahomes in Andy Reid's brilliant offense. This could be the best thing for him but I still expect the team to draft a WR.
RB Miles Sanders: Philadelphia Eagles to Carolina Panthers - 4 Years/$25M
Panthers Impact: Despite the current state of the Carolina offense, this is a good landing spot for Sanders. This is a soon-to-be 26-year old back with a long-term deal on a rebuilding offense. His rushing numbers may not hit 2022 levels but he gets a much better opportunity to show off his dual-threat capabilities. After trading away Christian McCaffrey, Chuba Hubbard and D’Onta Foreman split backfield duties with Foreman getting more consistent rushing usage and Hubbard catching more passes. Sanders can do both at a much higher level than both. This offense is not nearly as good as the Eagles’, but it is an offense that commits to the run and could really use a dual threat weapon in the backfield. Sanders will be worth drafting in this coming fantasy season.
Eagles Impact: People are immediately jumping on the Kenneth Gainwell bandwagon but he is far from a guarantee to run this backfield. See my Rashaad Penny section above to see the type of running back Gainwell is going to have to compete with for early down touches. Furthermore, Gainwell has never received a big workload in a game. His career-high in rush attempts is 13, and in thirty three games he has only hit double-digit carries three times. Gainwell has proven that he can turn limited carries into a lot of rushing yards because of this offense but he looks to be in line to retain his receiving-back role while Penny - who rarely gets targets anyway - gets the bulk of the carries in the backfield. Should Penny go down, Gainwell might not even be next in line for carries. Boston Scott signed a one-year deal and has gotten 6 starts over the past two seasons compared to only 1 for Gainwell. Bet on Penny to lead this backfield and treat Gainwell like a plug-in for PPR leagues.
QB Jacoby Brissett: Cleveland Browns to Washington Commanders - 1 Year/$8M
Commanders Impact: The Commanders are preliminarily committed to Sam Howell but perhaps there will be a QB battle in training camp. It makes sense that the Commanders grabbed Brissett as insurance, both for an injury and for any possible struggles by Howell, as Brissett was surprisingly very good leading the Browns offense last season. Whether Brissett is the starter or a backup, this doesn't move the needle on any skill position player but it does provide a safety net.
Browns Impact The Browns will miss Brissett if Watson gets hurt but it is Watson’s team now. Expect Washington to grab a solid backup.
RB Jamaal Williams: Detroit Lions to New Orleans Saints - 3 Years/$12M
Saints Impact: Mickey Loomis is a maniac. The Saints are creating cap space out of thin air, re-signing players from my Madden 14 campaigns and refusing to rebuild. That could be enough to win the NFC South but may not be enough to do anything meaningful in the playoffs. Williams joins the team on an oddly long deal considering he is about to turn 28 years old. This move does not hurt Alvin Kamara too much as he should keep his dynamic role in the offense. It could be an indication that his legal issues are worrying enough to grab a top free agent RB, though. Kamara’s fantasy value comes mainly from his receiving role and Jamaal Williams is hardly a threat to that. Kamara is used to splitting the backfield, namely with Mark Ingram and Latavius Murray, and that backfield split hasn’t stopped people from viewing him as one of the top fantasy RBs. The legal issues will make drafting Kamara difficult but starting him outside of that will not be an issue.
Lions Impact: This was expected following the David Montgomery signing. See David Montgomery above.
RB James Robinson: New York Jets to New England Patriots: 2 Years/$8M
Patriots Impact: Robinson has been trending downwards with every passing season. He was a great story during a strong rookie year but is now bouncing around from team to team. He had a solid start to the 2022 season but then the Jags moved on, trading him to the Jets, and then his Jets tenure was short lived as he was not able to make an impact for his new team. He could still be a decent RB2 for a team and this all but definitely means that Damien Harris will not re-sign with the Patriots. Rhamondre Stevenson runs this backfield and is a bright spot for the team in both fantasy football and real life. Stevenson went from 133 carries and 18 targets in 12 games as a rookie to 210 carries and 88 targets as a sophomore. The half-PPR RB11 did this on a terrible offense while still splitting a decent amount of carries. Robinson drew a lot of targets in Jacksonville so he could be a threat to Stevenson in that regard but this deal proves that the Patriots believe in their RB1. Trust the talent and give Rhamondre Stevenson the respect he deserves. Robinson is good enough to stand out as the RB2 in case of an injury, though.
Jets Impact: Come on man, it’s the Breece Hall show.
WR Parris Campbell: Indianapolis Colts to New York Giants - 1 Year/$4.7M
Giants Impact: Brian Daboll and the Giants present a great landing spot for any WR looking to change their fate. Campbell has missed a lot of time so lets hope the MetLife turf is kind to him and the Giants faithful. This WR room is still a mess but things are starting to become clear. Kenny Golladay was released and Sterling Shepard is back on a 1-year deal. Darius Slayton and Richie James - the Giants WRs with the most targets in 2022 - may not re-sign with the team. Isaiah Hodgins started to shine late in the season but only received a 1-year deal at a disrespectfully low salary. Rookie Wan’Dale Robinson is recovering from an ACL tear. Campbell is in good shape to push for the WR1 role on this team if no other impact WRs are added or drafted and he will benefit playing alongside newly acquired TE Darren Waller. Campbell has always carried risk in drafts but finally the risk looks like it could be worth it a likely depressed ADP.
Colts Impact: Campbell was finally starting to put it all together in 2022 after several injury riddlesd seasons. He played in all 17 games for the Colts after only 15 appearances in the last three seasons combined. Campbell totaled 63 receptions and 623 receiving yards on the year, which ranked second on a team that was falling apart, starting three different QBs throughout the season. Alec Pierce stands out as the WR2 next to Michael Pittman Jr. now after a rookie season where he caught 41 of his 78 targets for 593 yards and 3 TDs. Ashton Dulin was the only other WR on the team to draw at least 10 targets. Pierce has a strong athletic profile and was very productive on the catches he did make. 52.6% is a strikingly low catch percentage but not necessarily a sign of things to come. The QB situation is a near guarantee to improve with the Colts holding the 4th overall pick in the draft and a slew of good options available. A rookie QB may limit Pierce’s potential but he has proven efficient on limited touches and may command a larger target share in his second season making him a solid upside WR3/4 to consider late in drafts.
TE Mike Gesicki: Miami Dolphins to New England Patriots - 1 Year/$9M
Patriots Impact: At only 27 years old with a resume that includes three straight seasons as the second most targeted player on the Dolphins, Mike Gesicki should have a chance to push for a big role immediately in the Patriots offense. Unfortunately, we just saw a down season from Gesicki, but much of that can be attributed to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle taking over the passing attack, as Gesicki dropped from 112 targets in 2021 to 52 targets in 2022. Gesicki has not earned targets ata rate akin to top TEs but he can still be a nice late round target, even if a huge breakout is unlikely. There are rumors that the Patriots are loading up on weapons to make a push for a big name QB but until that materializes Gesicki is a high-end TE2 at best who will have to beat out Hunter Henry for targets.
Dolphins Impact: Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the only names to know in the Miami passing attack. They could certainly look to sign or add a WR3 or TE in the draft, but it is unlikely any pass catching additions make any real fantasy impact. Miami is the Hill and Waddle show.
WR Brandin Cooks: Houston Texans Traded to Dallas Cowboys for 2023 5th round pick and 2024 6th round pick
Cowboys Impact: This could be Cooks' best situation in years. Still capable of putting up 1000+ yard seasons and earning large target numbers, Cooks remains a valuable fantasy asset at 29 years old. Playing alongside CeeDee Lamb - who exploded for nearly 1400 yards in 2022 - will be good for Cooks on a Cowboys team that desperately needs weapons for a playoff push. Michael Gallup should remain the 3rd option at WR. Gallup disappointed as the Cowboys’ WR2 last season which makes his fantasy outlook bleak as the WR3, especially with two large target share earners now ahead of him on the depth chart in Lamb and Cooks.
Texans Impact: The Texans are a work in progress but there can still be some fantasy value had there. Dameon Pierce still stands out as the team's RB1 who should continue to get a big workload as the clear number one fantasy option in Houston. The pass-catchers post Cooks are uninspiring to say the least. Nico Collins and former Cowboy Noah Brown are next in line for the WR1 role but neither stand out as clear startable fantasy assets. Collins averaged 6.6 targets per game in 2022 but rarely converted the looks into stellar production. Cooks’ absence could help boost those target numbers but that is no guarantee that it leads to more fantasy points. Brown did not see more than 25 targets in a season until his 5th year in Dallas and has topped out at career highs of 555 yards and 3 TDs, which is not anything to write home about. Collins is the preferred option for the alpha role and deserves a roster spot as a late round fantasy selection. If Brown enters the season as the WR2 he will likely be an injury plug-in at best.
WR Adam Thielen: Minnesota Vikings to Carolina Panthers - 3 Years/25M
Panthers Impact: Adam Thielen will be 33 when the 2023 season kicks off and his production has sharply declined as he has gotten older. He is clearly not a long-term option for a Carolina team that's still heavily rebuilding, which makes the length of the contract a bit surprising. On the plus side, Thielen excels and has shined in the red zone throughout his career and was just 7 targets shy of superstar Justin Jefferson's 28 red zone targets in 2022. The Panthers are likely to draft rookie QB and this gutted skill position group will find it hard to produce red zone trips. Even if he remains a high upside play in good matchups, it is unlikely that Thielen becomes a trustworthy fantasy asset.
Vikings Impact: After exclusively playing special teams as a rookie, K.J. Osborn surprised in his second year as a WR handcuff and has even produced big games with healthy pass catchers around him. His 650 receiving yards and 5 TDs last season are not earth-shattering numbers but it impressive that he was able to have that type of success with Jefferson and Theilen mostly healthy and active ahead of him. Osborn could still face stiff competition with a new addition via free agency or the draft but he has shown flashes of excellence. His 16-target, 157-yard yard performance in the historic comeback win against the Colts was his shining moment from 2023. He also had several productive games in 2021 when filling in for an injured Adam Thielen. There is a lot to like in this offense and the young Osborn has always been able to step up to plate so far in his young career. Believe in him.
RB Devin Singletary: Buffalo Bills to Houston Texans - 1 Year/$3.75M
Texans Impact: This backfield just got complicated. Mike Boone was shaping up to be an underrated and inexpensive handcuff but Singletary complicates things. While never truly dominant, Singletary has been a good enough RB who benefited from playing on an incredible Bills offense. He could just be a spell back and insurance for Pierce, but he could also legitimately be a threat to Dameon Pierce’s workload. Pierce got 66.3% of all Houston RB rush attempts in 2022 despite missing the last 4 games of the season. Singletary is a bigger threat for touches than any other RB that Pierce has played with. On the flip side, the Texans looks far less likely to invest in a top RB right now which would still leave Pierce as the RB1, even if Singletary does mix in a bit. Pierce’s ADP and dynasty price will move down thanks to this move and it could be enough to justify drafting him in the short-term. Just don’t expect last year’s numbers. He can be your RB2/3.
Bills Impact: Singletary was solid in his time in Buffalo but was never a workhorse. The Bills have not had a 1,000+ yard rusher since LeSean McCoy in 2017. After signing Damien Harris to a 1 year contract, Harris and James Cook will be entrusted in leading this backfield in 2023 unless the Bills decide to invest high draft capital into a top RB like Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs. Either one of those rookie RBs would have a clear path to being the team’s RB1.
TE Dalton Schultz: Dallas Cowboys to Houston Texans - 1 Year/$9M
Texans Impact: Dalton Schultz was arguably the best available TE in free agency so you have to wonder if the quality of TEs in this year’s NFL draft ultimately led to this signing. Schultz goes to a Texans team that is assembling a ragtag skill position group without a QB of the future yet on just a one year deal. Schultz could succeed on high volume but that is assuming the Texans don’t bring in better receivers and improve their offense from a year ago. It won’t be difficult to stand out amongst young replacement level players and veterans past their prime, but Schultz has not moved into a situation that can push him to high-end TE1 territory. His ADP will probably still be too rich given his range of outcomes and fantasy managers are better off targeting more talented players even if their offense is more crowded.
Cowboys Impact: Schultz went from a late-round gem in 2021 to a middling TE in 2022. The Cowboys didn’t feature a fantasy relevant pass-catcher outside of CeeDee Lamb but recently acquired Brandin Cooks from Houston. Jake Ferguson should have the chance to command the starting TE role in his 2nd season. Ferguson does not have the athleticism that we saw from Schultz, which makes it hard to bet on him with so many other viable pass catchers in this offense. Peyton Hendershot may even have a chance at becoming the top TE. The Cowboys have also been linked to some of the top TE prospects in this year’s draft which would obviously hurt the value of both Ferguson and Hendershot.
RB Damien Harris: New England Patriots to Buffalo Bills - 1 Year
Bills Impact: The Bills could still draft a top RB despite this signing. This is just a 1-year deal and James Cook is not an elite RB talent. Teams are slowly moving against drafting RBs with valuable draft capital but an uber talented team with super bowl aspirations like the Bills can still take a shot. If a rookie RB is added, a three headed committee led by the rookie would not be surprising. If Harris and Cook are alone in this backfield, Harris and Cook would likely split rushing work with Cook catching passes. Harris is a bigger player and should be expected to see red zone rushing usage, especially near the goal-line. His 15 TDs in 2021 tied for 2nd most in the league, so he certainly has the ability to be that guy for the Bills. Josh Allen ranked 2nd on the Bills last year in red zone rushing attempts and was 1st in rushing attempts within 5 yards, which could be a thorn on the side of Harris and Cook’s fantasy potential. Both players are likely to be inconsistent assets, with Cook the more reliable PPR option.
Patriots Impact: Please see the James Robinson section above in which I discussed the Patriots backfield sans Damien Harris.
WR Mecole Hardman: Kansas City Chiefs to New York Jets - 1 Year/$6.5M
Jets Impact: Patrick Mahomes can elevate his receivers but he can't fix them. Hardman is a speedster who has made big plays in the past but hasn't produced enough to be considered a consistently startable fantasy WR. He has never eclipsed 700 receiving yards in a season and only has one 100+ yard game in his career. The Jets will likely utilize Hardman on screens and the close to the line gadget type plays that Rodgers likes to mix in but do not expect an impactful fantasy WR here.
Chiefs Impact: Despite their underwhelming numbers, the Chiefs need WRs, so letting JuJu and Hardman walk continues to indicate that the team is either going to make a big free agent move, trade, or draft a WR with one of their first several picks in the 2023 draft. For now, this move does not move the needle, but Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Skyy Moore managers should keep a close eye out because those are the only three wide receivers on the team at the moment.
WR Elijah Moore: New York Jets traded Elijah Moore and pick 74 to Cleveland Browns for pick 42
Browns Impact: Moore gets a much needed change of scenery after a disgruntled and forgetful season in New York. He will immediately be in the mix to push for the WR2 role that Donovan Peoples-Jones held behind Amari Cooper and will push dynasty darling David Bell even further down the depth chart. DPJ produced on a solid target share when Jacoby Brissett was at QB last season but Watson's rusty return from his suspension tainted his stats towards the end of the year. He is a talented enough receiver to compete for targets though and has proven to be a solid deep threat. TE David Njoku will also be in the mix for targets. The Browns have ran the ball nearly 50% of the time under Kevin Stefanski but that percentage could fall in 2023 with Deshaun Watson at QB and several strong pass catching weapons. This may not be the perfect place for Moore to dominate targets but he should find some success coming out of the slot in a trustworthy Stefanski offense. Moore has the chance to be a startable WR3 this season with room to grow in future years if he proves to have a strong connection with Watson.
Jets Impact: This was not a surprising departure at all, as trade rumors have been swirling all off-season. Moore is a talented receiver but his offensive snap percentage barely increased from year 1 to year 2 and he requested a trade in season after complaining about his role, or lack thereof. Even though the Jets did not part with Moore in season, it became clear that he was a candidate to leave the team in the off-season. Allen Lazard now faces significantly less competition for the WR2 role but that role already seemed pretty secure that with the belief that Aaron Rodgers will be the Jets QB in 2023. Mecole Hardman could be included in the offense more with Moore out of the way but it would be foolish to expect a breakout season from the speedster. The Jets may still look to sign or draft another pass catching weapon, so their offense may not be set in stone just yet.
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.