Sleepers and Busts: Week 14

SLEEPERS

QB: Gardner Minshew - Indianapolis Colts 

Gardner Minshew's career as a starting quarterback has the resiliency of an iron-clad cockroach. The mustachioed gunslinger seems to continually find himself in the lexicon of fantasy-relevant streamers every season with managers rotating the unsuspecting starter into their lineups based on the matchup at hand. Week 14 presents managers with one of those rare matchups when Minshew can put up week-winning numbers. The Colts (7-5) aim to keep their playoff hopes alive as they attempt to climb the AFC South ladder against a Jake Browning-led Bengals (6-6) team that sits last in the AFC North. Vegas betting lines favor the hometown Bengals by a mere 2.5 points with a surprisingly high projected Over/Under scoring total of 44.5 points. The Bengals’ defense has struggled to stem offensive production all season, allowing 403.6 scrimmage yards (31st) while giving up 254.3 passing yards (27th) and 22.8 points (22nd) per game. They concede 19.4 fantasy points per contest to opposing quarterbacks, ranked 11th in Broto Fantasy's True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average of 9.0% to the position. Minshew has posted two low-end QB1 outings in his last two starts (QB12, QB12) while attempting more than 40 passes in each contest. In a fantasy football landscape filled with quarterback injuries  Minshew may just be the hero we need to cross the threshold into the playoffs.

Matt Ward

RB: Alexander Mattison - Minnesota Vikings

Alexander Mattison keeps turning up as a post-hype Sleeper after several managers made the high-upside handcuff a priority target in preseason drafts. After 14 weeks of the NFL season, it is safe to say that the Vikings running back has been nothing short of a disappointment. He has posted just two RB1 finishes this season despite maintaining a career/team-high opportunity share out of the backfield. Although the top-end production has been lacking and the peripheral analytics look pedestrian, Mattison has an excellent opportunity for a get-right game in Week 14 as managers gear up for the fantasy playoffs. The Vikings (6-6) travel to face the Raiders (5-7) in a rare cross-conference matchup between the two franchises. The Over/Under is set at 40.5 with the road team Vikings favored by 3.0 points. Both teams will be starting backup quarterbacks as Josh Dobbs and Aidan O'Connell get the nod. The Raiders defense has generated a ton of pressure up front, causing fits for offensive lines and opposing quarterbacks but have been increasingly susceptible on the ground against the run. The Raiders allow 356.6 scrimmage yards (19th) per game, 127.0 (27th) of which come via rushing production alone. The Raiders rank 13th in Broto Fantasy's True Matchup Rank, allowing 22.0 fantasy points per game with a Points Over Average of 7.0% but are much worse against rushing production compared to passing production allowed to opposing running backs. They give up 6.6 PPG via receiving production (22nd/-12.0% Points Over Average) but allow a whopping 15.4 PPG of rushing production (7th/+24.0% Points Over Average) to the position. The Vikings’ easiest path to victory is undeniably through a slow-paced slugfest that favors their lead back. Starting Mattison after a down season is an undeniably risky proposition but those willing to take said risk could be rewarded with one of his few meaningful performances.

Matt Ward

WR: Drake London - Atlanta Falcons

The Bucs continue to face serious regression amidst major injuries on defense with lockdown corner Jamel Dean set to miss yet another contest. Dean's absence means that Drake London should see the struggling Carlton Davis in coverage a lot more. The Buccaneers are the 11th-best wide receiver matchup in True Matchup Ranking, allowing Michael Pittman Jr and Jonathan Mingo to have high-upside outings over the past two weeks. London has significantly less target competition than the aforementioned wideouts but Desmond Ridder has not been great for him this year so he’s likely been rising on your bench as an undroppable stash. Week 14 is as good a time as any to fire him up again. I’m not expecting more than a WR2 performance without a touchdown attached to his name but the Buccaneers’ ability to score on offense coupled with their continuing defensive injuries makes an in-division shootout very possible.

Themi Michalakis

TE: Gerald Everett - Los Angeles Chargers

Gerald Everett has been a perennial sleeper option pretty much every year of his career. This season is no different as he continues to have occasional spike weeks and can pinch-hit for managers who are in need of a startable tight end. Everett has three TE1 weekly finishes in 2023 and is averaging over 8 half-PPR points in his last five healthy games.

The Chargers are a banged-up team. They’ve been missing Mike Williams and Josh Palmer plus top stars like Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler have dealt with their own lingering injuries at various times this year. All of these health issues have forced players like Gerald Everett and Donald Parham to get involved in the offense more. 

Now with the injury and bye-week plague that is the tight end landscape in week fourteen, Everett should be viewed as a top sleeper option. Not only are top tight ends out with injury like Andrews, Waller and possibly even Schultz but Trey McBride has his bye week. Lots of managers are going to be scrapping for a tight end to slide into their lineup. 

It’s hard to find many better options to plug and play than the guy facing Denver. The Broncos are ranked 5th in True Matchup Rank and allow 29% Points over Average to opposing tight ends. That is one of the juiciest matchups of the week and the slate should be primed for Gerald Everett to be involved in the offense and to produce a quality fantasy performance for managers. 

Boyd Armstrong

BUSTS

QB: Geno Smith - Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith is riding high on the wave of his most-recent outing that saw the veteran quarterback put up 31.96 fantasy points as the QB1 overall in a nail-biting overtime shootout against the Cowboys. Smith threw for 334 yards and three touchdowns, marking the only time this season in which he has passed for more than 300 yards with two or more touchdowns. Managers who are expecting a repeat performance from the journeyman signal-caller may get sorely dissatisfied with their scoring totals when the final whistle is blown in Week 14. The Seahawks (6-6) make the short trip to face the division rivals 49ers (9-3) in a matchup between two franchises with polar opposite trajectories in 2023. The 49ers defense has stood tall against nearly every opponent, allowing a mere 319.4 scrimmage yards (7th) and 219.4 passing yards (13th) to opponents this season while giving up just 15.8 points per game (2nd). They have easily stymied the production of every opposing quarterback, conceding a lowly 12.8 fantasy points per game with a Points Over Average of negative (-)29.0% to the position. The 49ers are by far the toughest defense to face for quarterbacks this season, ranking 32nd in Broto Fantasy's True Matchup Rank. Smith boosted his averages with a stellar Week 13 performance but is still managing just 242.3 passing yards per game with only 15 touchdowns to nine interceptions this season. There is little confidence in the veteran quarterback in a lopsided matchup against one of the NFL's most effective defensive units.

Matt Ward 

RB: Tony Pollard - Dallas Cowboys

Tony Pollard's fantasy stock is undeniably on the rise as the Cowboys’ red-hot offense has helped the shifty running back produce three RB1 finishes in his last three games, scoring a touchdown in each contest after failing to find the end zone for eight consecutive weeks. Unfortunately, it appears as if Pollard's stock is about to take a significant dip – at least for one week. The Cowboys (9-3) host the Eagles (10-2) in a bitter division rivalry matchup that could very well decide the fate of the NFC East. Vegas betting lines have the hometown Cowboys favored by 3.5 points with their projected Over/Under scoring total of 52.5 representing the highest total of the weekly slate. The last time these two teams faced off in Week 9, the Eagles scraped by with a 28-23 victory while Dak Prescott's game-winning completion to CeeDee Lamb fell inches short of the goal line. Pollard managed just 51 rushing yards on 12 carries and 12 receiving yards on three receptions, finishing with 9.2 PPR points. The Eagles’ defense has struggled mightily against the pass but has been downright unshakable against opposing running backs, evident by Pollard's Week 9 slash. The Eagles allow just 90.3 rushing yards per game (4th) and rank 32nd against running backs in Broto Fantasy's True Matchup Rank. They allow just 14.6 PPG to the position, giving up a negative Points Over Average of (-)32.0%. Furthermore, all of Pollard's high-end fantasy production has come with a touchdown attached to his box score. The Cowboys leading back also tanks 22nd overall in Points Per Opportunity Excluding Touchdowns as he has failed to create meaningful fantasy points on his own, relying solely on his unpredictable and likely unsustainable touchdown streak. The downgrade is not necessarily enough to bench Pollard entirely but temper expectations to the tier of a low-end RB2 as opposed to his current ECR as RB11.

Matt Ward

WR: Cooper Kupp - Los Angeles Rams

It’s unfortunate to see such a quick downturn for Cooper Kupp. He’s no spring chicken at 30 years of age and started the 2023 season on injured reserve but immediately put up two 100+ yard games upon return. Since then, Kupp has combined for 166 yards and one lonely touchdown while often posting disappointing target numbers as the tertiary option behind Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams. He’s now heading east to face the Ravens who just so happen to house one of the truly elite defenses in the league. Kupp will draw some unfavorable coverage assignments while matching up against some of the NFL's best defensive backs, both at corner and at safety, mainly Kyle Hamilton who should give him plenty of trouble in the slot. Even in plus matchups, Kupp hasn’t produced and I don’t fancy his chances of fantasy success without a touchdown. Your first-round pick may need to be on the bench as you make one final playoff push, and that’s going to be a tough pill to swallow.

Themi Michalakis 

TE: Dalton Kincaid - Buffalo Bills

Dalton Kincaid has put together a solid rookie campaign so far. The Bills first-round pick has 50+ catches and nearly 500 yards with 5 games left to play still. Those numbers have resulted in some quality fantasy production as Kincaid boasts five weekly TE1 finishes in his eleven-game career. All five of these performances happened while Dawson Knox was on IR.

The production splits for Dalton Kincaid pre-Knox injury and post-Knox injury are quite staggering. At the start of the year with both of them playing they each were on the field a healthy amount and were splitting snaps. In this six-game period, Kincaid barely averaged over 5 half-PPR points per game. Once Knox went down with his wrist injury and landed on IR, Kincaid’s numbers doubled as he started averaging 10.7 points per game. Splits can be misleading in certain situations but with Knox slated to return from injury this week, it seemed noteworthy to dive into. 

If returning competition in the tight end room wasn’t enough of a headache, the Bills are primed to face off against the Chiefs who have proven to be one of the strongest defenses all season long. Kansas City is ranked 27th in True Matchup Rank and allows negative 15% Points over Average to opposing tight ends. That is the 5th worst possible matchup in the league. 

The combination of Dawson Knox returning plus a tough matchup makes it hard to feel too confident in Dalton Kincaid this week. With the way the tight end landscape is these days, plus the week fourteen byes, it may be hard to pull a guy like Kincaid from your lineups but expectations should be tempered, and consider pivoting if you somehow roster another start-worthy option.

Boyd Armstrong

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