My best bets went 3-2 last week and gained 0.61 units. Trevor Lawrence got hurt in a shocking shootout against the Bengals and George Kittle failed to score in a game where the 49ers scored 42 points. Oh well.
2023 Total: 32-28-1, -3.425u
All bets are risking 1 unit unless otherwise noted
Teasers:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2) @ Atlanta Falcons O/U: 41
Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) O/U: 40
Themi’s Teaser: Bucs +8, Ravens -1.5
(6-point teaser, -120)
The last time the Bucs and Falcons met, the Falcons stole a road win as Tampa only put up 13 points. Neither Desmond Ridder nor any other skill position player was especially dominant but they were importantly solid. The Bucs also started the game with a turnover on downs and had another 2 turnovers in the 2nd half. It also looks like Atlanta is getting worse, if that’s even possible. They’re 25th in defensive DVOA and have yet to convincingly beat anyone since a 14-point victory against the Panthers in Week 1. Tampa still has a really nice passing offense and should exploit the Falcons’ secondary. Jamel Dean and Devin White are officially out, and Vita Vea is questionable. Even with those issues, I trust their offense to keep pace with a rather boring Atlanta attack. If they can’t do that, something has seriously gone wrong.
Baltimore is coming off a bye, at home, and waiting to be bet on in a great spot for a teaser. Boasting a top-5 offense and one of the best defenses in the league, they’re a difficult team to beat. Baltimore is not immune to head-scratching losses against inferior opponents but they’re 9-3 for a reason, and haven’t lost a game by more than a score all year. The Rams are no slouches, though. Their offense is 9th in DVOA and getting Kyren Williams back was massive. Their defense is still their biggest weakness but Baltmiore can struggle at times. The biggest issue is that LA is really susceptible against TEs and Mark Andrews is still out. Isaiah Likely should start to get going again and showed promise last season with Andrews out. I’ll take a chance on them to pull out a win after some rest in front of the home crowd.
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) @ New York Giants O/U: 37
Denver Broncos (+2.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers O/U: 44
Themi’s Teaser: Packers -0.5, Broncos +8.5 (6-point teaser, -120)
The Giants are awful. They barely beat a Patriots team that looks awful despite a shocking win against Pittsburgh on Thursday night and beat the division-rival Commanders with the worst defense in the league. The Packers are heating up at the right time and Jordan Love has shown flashes of being the true future of this team for years to come. Green Bay has shot up to 12 in offensive DVOA and Jordan Love is 15th in EPA+CPOE composite. After losing to the Steelers and having some other bad early losses, the Packers are on a 3-game win streak while conquering the Lions and Chiefs by at least a TD each. The Giants have started to look a little more competent with Tommy Devito and will play host in an oddly-timed MNF doubleheader after their bye week. I still don’t have much faith that they can generate enough to keep up with Green Bay. The Packers can be susceptible on the ground which is great for New York’s game plan but they can stifle you through the air. The Giants have a glaring weakness as a rushing defense and Adoree Jackson and Deonte Banks can be exploited by the many receivers that Green Bay can score with. I think New York can show some fight but betting on the road win for the Packers here is a good bet.
Justin Herbert deserves a lot of credit for keeping the Chargers even close to relevant. Brandon Staley and Kellen Moore are understandably on the heat seat. An atrocious run game will have a chance to redeem themselves against one of the best rushing matchups in the league. Although they’re improving and often winning the turnover battle, Denver is still exploitable and LA has the passing attack to keep this incredibly competitive. The Broncos do have their own great offense and LA is also pretty awful on defense despite plenty of stars on that side of the ball. Sean Payton has done wonders for this team (or perhaps it’s the lack of Nathaniel Hackett to drag them down) and made Russell Wilson and company a top-half offense. Courtland Sutton is a big-play monster with an affinity for scoring and Javonte Williams has been decent since returning from an ACL tear last year. It’s fitting that Joe Lombardi left LA for Denver and now gets to face his former, free falling team. Even when they can’t force turnovers and let up a ton of yards - like last week against the Texans - the Broncos have kept things scarily close in recent weeks. It’ll be hard to stop the Chargers if their run game is solid this week but things don’t seem to be turning around. I’m comfortable with betting on a one-score loss for Denver.
Straight:
CeeDee Lamb Over 88.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD (-140)
Dak Prescott is on fire and is showing no signs of slowing down as he faces his own gauntlet on his way to solidifying his MVP case. There’s no doubt that CeeDee Lamb has been a major benefactor and likely a reason that Prescott has performed so well. Although he has had his share of down games, he’s 2nd in the league in receiving yards and has eclipsed 100 receiving yards in half of his games so far. Last time he faced the Eagles, he caught 11 of 16 targets for 191 yards but failed to score. He should continue to feast against Philly with the luxury of playing at home as the team looks to push for the division title and #1 seed. The Eagles pass defense ranks 24th in DVOA and 25th in EPA. In a 42-19 loss, they allowed Deebo Samuel to accumulate 138 scrimmage yards and 3 total TDs on just 7 touches. Brock Purdy only threw 27 times in the victory and both Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings caught a TD as well. Prescott hasn’t thrown fewer than 30 times since the beginning of October and can easily hit 300+ passing yards and 2-3 TDs, or more. Expect Lamb to explode in one of the best matchups of the week.
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by Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.