Clay's Corner: Week 14 DFS Plays

I absolutely smashed in Week 13 with recommendations and GPPs. I focused mostly on the SF @ PHI game knowing that both secondaries were vulnerable. Using QB Brock Purdy in GPPs and cash was the smart way to go. Let’s see how everything played out in Week 13. 

QB: Brock Purdy – 23.46, Tua Tagovailoa- 19.2

RB: DeVon Achane- 25.3, Kyren Williams- 20.2, Rachaad White- 19.6

WR: Tyreek Hill- 35.3, Deebo Samuel- 38.8, Michael Pittman Jr- 30.5, Courtland Sutton- 15.7, DeVonta Smith- 24.6

TE: Tayson Hill- 15.4

D/ST: Jets- 9

My best GPP lineup doubled my entry fee, and I placed second in a FFWC qualifier tournament and placed 131/8,928 in the NFL Safety on FanDuel.

QB: Brock Purdy- 32.46

RB: DeVon Achane- 25.3

RB: Zach Moss- 7.7

WR: Tyreek Hill- 35.3

WR: George Pickens- 12.6

WR: Curtis Samuel- 10.5

TE: Brevin Jordan- 9.4

FLEX: Christian McCaffrey- 22.3

D/ST: Patriots D/ST- 7

For a total of 162.56 points! My FFWC qualifier lineup had a similar lineup except for: Najee Harris, DeVonta Smith, Deebo Samuel, and Kalif Raymond, which scored 172.46 points. 

I did cash on FanDuel with a similar lineup except for: Joe Flacco, Jerome Ford, Cooper Kupp, and Deebo Samuel which scored 150.76 points. 

Time to identify more winners for Week 14! 

Week 14 DraftKings slate

Games to target:

1. MIN @ LV - 46.5 O/U

Implied totals: MIN 21.75; LV 18.75

2. SEA @ SF - 49.5 O/U

Implied totals: SEA 18; SF 28.5

3. IND @ CIN – 47.5 O/U

Implied totals: IND 22; CIN 25.5

Top Cash Plays: 

Quarterbacks

I’m going to use mid-range to low-range QBs in cash this week. 

Joe Flacco ($4,700)

Flacco threw for 254 yards and 2 TDs in his first start which is encouraging. His arm strength looked good, and he had 44 attempts, so the Browns aren’t afraid to let him chuck it. Rookie QB Jake Browning put up 354 passing yards and 1 TD on the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13, who Joe Flacco plays this week. The Jaguars rank as the 3rd best matchup for opposing QBs per Broto’s True Matchup Rank.  

Gardner Minshew ($5,400)

Minshew has had back-to-back games with 40+ passing attempts, which correlates with RB Zack Moss losing some of his early season shine. In fact, Moss had his 2nd lowest YPC last week (2.7). Naturally, Gardner Minshew and the passing game will have to help fill the void. QB Trevor Lawrence roasted the Bengals defense for 258 passing yards and 2 TDs before exiting with an injury. Minshew has the weapons and experience to get the job done. 

Running Back

David Montgomery ($6,400), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,600) 

Gibbs and Montgomery combined for 39.3 fantasy points in their last meeting with the Bears and not much has changed since that matchup. The Bears’ defense still ranks as the 5th best matchup for opposing RBs, so Detroit should be able to run the ball all day long. 

Joe Mixon ($6,100)

With QB Joe Burrow out, Mixon becomes the engine of the Bengals offense. Mixon has had double digit carries in every game except one this season. In two of three games with new starting QB Jake Browning, Mixon has 5 or more targets. Also helping Mixon this week is his opponent. The Colts rank as the 6th best matchup for opposing RBs, so Mixon should easily pay off his cheap price tag in Week 14.  

Other options: Breece Hall ($6,200), Isiah Pacheco ($6,700), Jerome Ford ($5,500), Alvin Kamara ($8,200).

Wide Receiver 

Ja’Marr Chase ($7,600) 

QB Jake Browning went to Chase early and often in Week 13. Chase finished with 11 receptions for 149 yards and 1 TD. It’s not Ja’Marr Chase with QB Joe Burrow but 60-75% is certainly worth $7,600 on DK. As previously mentioned, the Colts have been pass-heavy lately with QB Gardner Minshew throwing for 40+ attempts. The Colts could force the Bengals to increase their pace and in turn, open-up the passing offense. 

Michael Pittman Jr ($7,300)

Pittman has been a staple of my lineups the past month. His volume and targets are nearly unmatched right now. Pittman has back-to-back games of 10+ receptions and 100+ receiving yards. He ranks 7th in target share and 3rd in red zone opportunities.  

Other options: Noah Brown ($5,000)

The Jets defense is a tough draw but with WR Nathaniel Dell is out for the season which opens up targets for Brown.

Deebo Samuel ($6,800)

Samuel gets a decent price increase this week but still looks like a strong play. QB Brock Purdy is finding Deebo at all lengths of the field and HC Kyle Shanahan is still using him out of the backfield. Samuel has back-to-back games of 22+ fantasy points.   

Tight End

Isaiah Likely ($3,500)

Relying on QB Lamar Jackson to throw the ball is always a dicey proposition, but with TE Mark Andrews gone for the season and the Rams ranking as the #1 matchup for opposing TEs, I’m willing to make an exception this week. Likely had 6 targets in his first full game with Lamar and I expect the chemistry and targets to grow. 

D/ST

Indianapolis Colts ($3,500) 

The Colts have back-to-back games of 6 sacks, 1 fumble forced and 1 fumble recovered. With the Bengals rolling with rookie QB Jake Browning, the Colts defense should continue their dominant ways. 

Favorite stacks:

1. Brock Purdy + CMC + Deebo Samuel/Brandon Aiyuk. A DK Metcalf or Jaxon Smith-Njigba bring back. 

2. Gardner Minshew + Michael Pittman w/ Ja’Marr Chase or Joe Mixon bring back. As long as the weather is ok in this game, I’ll be attacking this game a lot.  

GPP Plays:

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($8,300)

The Chiefs defense just let QB Jordan Love dog-walk them for 267 passing yards and 3 TDs. The Chiefs defense will be at home, but Allen has scored 23+ fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games, including games of 33 and 43 fantasy points. Despite his volatile ways, Allen is still 1st in PPG as well as 1st in passing TDs, 2nd in rushing TDs, and 6th in yards/gm. 

Lamar Jackson ($7,700)

Jackson is a player I always want to have some exposure to in GPPs because of his ability to break a slate. Lamar continues to excel on the ground, ranking 2nd in rushing attempts, 1st in rushing yards and 5th in rushing TDs. Jackson’s rushing should play a large role this week as he faces the 6th best matchup for opposing rushing QBs in the Rams. 

Justin Fields ($6,800)

Much like Lamar, Fields is also always a threat to have a huge game. Although his passing isn’t where most want it to be, Fields does rank 3rd in rushing attempts and rushing yards. Fields will have to run a lot to keep pace with a loaded Detroit offense. 

Running Back

James Cook ($6,000)

Although the Chiefs’ defense has been stout, lately they have been vulnerable to the ground game, ranking as the 13th best matchup for rushing RBs. Cook is 6th in rushing yards and 9th in points per opportunity (PPOxTD) excluding TDs. Cook can also hurt the Chiefs through the air as he ranks 7th in receiving yards and 7th in receiving TDs. 

I like my cash options at RB as well for GPPs this week. 

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($7,300)

I think Adams will get over-looked this week. Adams has still been dominant though, ranking 1st in redzone opportunities, 3rd in target share at 30.3%, and 4th in weighted opportunity rating (WOPR). I love Adams’ matchup this week in the Vikings, who rank as the 8th best matchup for opposing WRs. Adams should be in for a big week. 

Cooper Kupp ($7,800) 

I also like my cash options for GPPs this week.  

Tight Ends

I am comfortable using my cash TEs recommendations for GPPs, however, I’ll give you another option for this week. 

TE Sam LaPorta ($6,100)

Although the Bears defense is weakest against the run, they also struggle with covering TEs. The Bears rank as the 8th best matchup for opposing TEs. LaPorta has been nothing short of spectacular in his rookie campaign. Here are some of LaPorta’s stats: 

• 5th in targets

• 4th in True Target Value (TTaV)

• 2nd in receiving TDs

• 9th in redzone opportunities

• 6th in target share- 19%

• 5th in PPR PPG

If the Bears push the tempo and slow the Lions run game, LaPorta could be in for a big game. 

Other options: Gerald Everett ($3,400) - Denver is the 4th best matchup for opposing TEs. Tyler Conklin ($3,000) - Houston ranks as the 3rd best matchup for opposing TEs.

D/ST

I’m sticking with my cash D/ST for GPPs. 

Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)

George Pickens scored 12.6 fantasy points in Week 13 to bring my record to 12-12. 

WR Elijah Moore ($4,500)

Moore and QB Joe Flacco connected right away in Week 13 and yet, they also left a lot of scoring on the field. Moore had 12 targets in his first game with Flacco and with a feisty Jaguars offense on deck in Week 14, Moore should be busy again this week. 

Have a great Week 14 of DFS! Win big and be kind to each other!

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By Clayton Jones aka @FF_Pulse_88