SLEEPERS
QB: Matt Stafford - Los Angeles Rams
Since returning from injury, Matt Stafford has been the QB8 or better in three straight weeks, including matchups with Cleveland and on the road at Baltimore, two of the more difficult matchups so far this season. This week, he gets a great matchup against the Washington Commanders who, especially since shipping off their two best pass rushers, have been bleeding points to the QB position, particularly through the air where Stafford does all of his damage. The Commanders are allowing 25.6 FPPG to the QB position, easily number one and almost 50% over average for their opponents. What makes Stafford even more appealing is that 22.8 of those points are coming through the air, with Washington allowing 93% points over average, the best True Matchup Rank in the league. Furthermore, Washington is 10th in pace of play on the season and 5th in the last 3 weeks while the Rams defense is a top-10 matchup for every position off the board.
With a hot Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp returning to form, Puka Nacua continuing to dominate and Kyren Williams taking pressure off the pass catchers in the backfield, all mixed with what should be a shoot out, Matt Stafford can bring you to the promised land in your first playoff week.
Tim Petropoulos
RB: Jaylen Warren - Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers (7-6) travel on the road to face the Colts (7-6) in one of the NFL's first three yearly Saturday Matchups to close out the season. Both teams are surprisingly still in playoff position in the AFC despite several ups and downs while starting two backup quarterbacks (Gardner Minsew, Mitchell Trubisky). The woes in the passing game are duly noted but the ease presented for the Steelers running backs against a susceptible Colts defense are being widely ignored. The Colts are allowing 377.2 scrimmage yards per game (26th) with 131.5 of those yards coming via rushing production alone (27th). The Colts defense ranks 1st overall in True Matchup Rank for opposing running backs as they concede 20.6 PPG (3rd/56.0% Points Over Average) to the position on the ground and 7.5 PPG (9th/23.0% Points Over Average) through the air, representing the best possible matchup of the Week 15 slate for any running back. Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris have been locked in a timeshare for much of the 2023 season but the former of the aforementioned teammates has been vastly more explosive and efficient with every touch. Warren may be currently trending on the wrong side of regression but is still receiving the usage and looks necessary to uphold a fantasy-friendly performance against the league's softest defensive matchup for his position.
Matt Ward
WR: Tyler Lockett- Seattle Seahawks
Tyler Lockett has shown some undeniable regression in his efficiency during the 2023 campaign, largely in part due to Geno Smith's monumental drop off as a highly productive passing threat. Managers may be surprised to learn that Lockett still currently leads the Seahawks in targets (93) and receptions (65) but has just four touchdowns this season, representing his lowest total since the 2016 campaign. Week 15 presents an excellent get-right opportunity for Lockett and it could not have come a moment sooner now that the fantasy playoffs have ensued. The Seahawks (6-7) host the Eagles (10-3) in a must-win matchup for the latter of the two teams. Vegas betting lines have the projected Over/Under scoring total set at 47.5 points with the visiting Eagles favored by 3.0 points. Geno Smith remains questionable with an injury tag (but is expected to play) leaving Drew Lock as the Seahawks contingency plan. The positive defensive matchup and game script for the respective pass-catchers is simply too good to ignore. The Eagles defense have been outright stifling against the run allowing just 94.0 rushing yards per game (6th) to opposing offenses. Conversely, they have been hilariously inept at stemming passing production, conceding 259.9 yards (28th) via the air while giving up 24.7 points per game (28th) to their opponents. The Eagles rank 32nd in True Matchup Rank to running backs (14.6 PPG/-32.0% Points Over Average) with a baffling juxtaposition of 41.3 PPG (2nd/41.3% Points Over Average) allowed to the wide receiver position. They also allow 21.1 PPG of passing production to rival quarterbacks, ranking 2nd in True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average of 46.0%. The Seahawks will undoubtedly need to rely on the trio of Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba if they hope to play spoiler to the Eagles hopes of claiming the top seed in the NFC.
Matt Ward
TE: Logan Thomas - Washington Commanders
Logan Thomas has often been the odd man out, not only in the team’s pecking order but as a general fantasy asset despite Sam Howell’s insane pass attempt numbers. He’s on pace to throw for the 12th most passes in a single season in NFL history but that hasn’t amounted to any insane receiving seasons from his options. He has spread the ball around a lot and Thomas has typically been the TE to benefit from that. All of Thomas’ half-PPR TE1 games have come when he has scored, but he has also put up some decent TE2 finishes with solid receiving games. He especially takes advantage of the juiciest matchups, like the Broncos, Bears, Eagles, and Seahawks. The Rams are currently the best TE matchup in True Matchup Rank and allow the 5th most yards and most touchdowns to the position. That’s despite the team being middle-of-the-pack in terms of targets and receptions allowed to TEs, which should be good for Thomas and his typically middling target numbers. The Rams boast a strong offense that should continue to keep Howell throwing. The endzone is not out of the question for Thomas.
Themi Michalakis
BUSTS
QB: Tua Tagovailoa
Considering his position as the pilot of the most high-flying offense in the NFL, Tua has largely been disappointing for fantasy purposes, particularly of late. Despite ranking in the top-6 in passing yards, TDs, aDOT, True Throw Value, competitions, and big-plays, he comes in at 11th in PPG while failing to crack the top-9 at the position since week 6. This week he gets a Jets defense that held him to just 7.8 fantasy points in Week 12 and which ranks as the 3rd-worst matchups for QBs this season, allowing 22% below average score to their opponents, just 14.6 FPPG. In his career, Tua has never finished as a weekly QB1 against his division rivals from NY. To make matters worse, MVP-candidate WR Tyreek Hill has a sprained ankle, which could limit his outer-worldly speed in an already tough matchup against Sauce Gardner, arguably the NFL’s best CB. The Dolphins are looking to bounce back after a tough loss to Tennessee, but face a Jets team hungry to re-enter the playoff race with Aaron Rodgers looking like he might suit up again this season. It is hard to beat a division opponent twice, and if the Dolphins are going to do that, they are going to have to do it on the ground, where Miami has excelled and NY has been vulnerable. Unless Tua registers a couple of shovel passes for TDs, it’s hard to see a world where the former Alabama star is a good play this week.
Tim Petropoulos
RB: James Conner - Arizona Cardinals
The back and forth saga between James Conner and the Broto Fantasy writing team is set to battle yet again with the Cardinals running back finding himself on the wrong side of the Sleepers/Busts column in Week 15. Conner has been a mainstay in this recurring article, popping up both as a high-upside sleeper and a low-level bust on multiple occasions, much to the avail of his fantasy managers. The pretence is really quite simple – if Conner is in a positive matchup (or revenge game against the Steelers), start him. Conversely, if he is facing a negative matchup, bench him. Unfortunately for fantasy playoff teams with championship aspirations, the latter of the two aforementioned options is on deck for Week 15. The Cardinals (3-10) play host to the 49ers (10-3) in a division matchup between two teams with polar opposite trajectories. The 49ers defense has allowed just 320.9 scrimmage yards (8th), 78.3 rushing yards (1st) and 15.8 points (1st) per game to opposing offenses this season. Their stunning per game rushing averages have led to a 31st place ranking in Broto Fantasy's True Matchup Rank as the fearsome unit is giving up a stifling 14.9 PPG (-24.0% Points Over Average) to the running back position. The 49ers have allowed just 8.0 PPG on average via rushing production (-37.0% Points Over Average) this season. Conner is averaging just 4.0 receiving yards per game with only 14 receptions and although Conner has been the team's leading rusher for much of the 2023 season, he is still averaging just 70.1 rushing yards per game with a negative (-)37.0% expected decrease in said production against his upcoming matchup. Attempting to break through the 49ers run defense with minimal receiving upside in a game that favors the road team by 12.5 points is a recipe for a first round playoff exit for Conner's fantasy managers.
Matt Ward
WR: Jaylen Waddle - Miami Dolphins
Jaylen Waddle is transitioning from one of the best possible defensive matchups from the Titans (32.6 PPG Allowed, 3rd in True Matchup Rank) in Week 14 to what is undeniably the worst defensive matchup for the wide receiver position in Week 15. The Dolphins (9-4) look to keep their bye week hopes alive as they host they Jets (5-8) on home turf. Vegas betting lines have the Dolphins favored by a whopping 9.5 points with the projected Over/Under scoring total set at a lowly 37.5 points. The Jets defense is conceding a mere 167.2 passing yards (2nd) and 19.8 points to opposing offenses this season. They Rank 32nd in True Matchup Rank as the toughest defensive matchup for wide receivers. The Jets allow a league low 19.2 combined PPG to wide receivers with a Points Over Average rating of negative (-)41.0%. Waddle was inable to capitalize on increased usage as the Dolphins top wideout against a bottom-feeding Titans secondary, tallying just 13.9 fantasy points with 79 yards on six receptions despite Tyreek Hill missing/being limited for most of the game with an ankle injury. Hill's availability is still very much in question for Week 15 but Waddle has done little to earn the confidence of fantasy managers even if he is thrust into the WR1 role. Furthermore, the absence of Hill would undoubtedly force Waddle into even tougher coverage assignments as the Jets would likely shadow the speedy wideout with Sauce Gardner while throwing a healthy dose of double teams his way. Waddle has just one top 12 performance under his belt this season and has finished inside of the top 20 receivers on just one occasion in his past five outings. It is near impossible to justifiably bench a player with such incredible big-play upside but expecting increased production and efficiency against the NFL's toughest defense after a wildly mediocre outing the week prior is a foolish endeavor. Managers will have to feel comfortable downgrading the Dolphins receiver to mid-range flex play in the first week of the fantasy football playoffs.
Matt Ward
TE: Cole Kmet - Chicago Bears
Outside of big games from Mark Andrews in Week 4 and Evan Engram last week, opposing tight ends have only managed to accumulate 182 yards and one receiving touchdown against the Browns defense this season. We can’t ignore these blow-up games but even some top-tier tight ends have failed to perform against this elite defense. The Brkwns are allowing the 3rd fewest points over average and the 7th lowest DVOA to the position. Cole Kmet is a player you should trust to overcome some bad matchups with Justin Fields dealing at times, but there’s some heavy bust potential here. Typically his better games have come against some very giving defenses, like the early season Broncos or the Commanders, Lions, and Chargers. There aren’t going to be great options on the waiver wire but Kmet is a very shaky play in the first week of the fantasy playoffs.
Themi Michalakis
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.