Broto Bets went 2-2 and lost 0.46 units last week. CeeDee Lamb was looking good early against the Eagles and scored a TD but Dallas was up big and didn’t need to throw anymore, so he went under on his receiving prop. The Packers were without Jaire Alexander but were getting beat in every way by Tommy Devito and the Giants, ultimately, letting them trot down the field for the game-winning FG to end one of the teasers.
2023 Total: 33-30-1, -3.885u
Teasers:
Kansas City Chiefs (-8) @ New England Patriots O/U: 37
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-9) O/U: 37
Themi’s Teaser: Chiefs -1.5, Dolphins -2.5
(6.5-point teaser, -130)
The Chiefs are as shaky as ever with Patrick Mahomes. The defense may look pretty good, and overall the offense performs, but they’re just not dominating games like they used to. Losing your OC and a star WR can’t be easy to replace but expectations were still sky high for this team. To their credit, they’re leading the division at 8-5 and have mostly lost to great teams, or ones that are heating up. Their schedule has been tough and the last time they faced a team as bad as the Patriots, the broadcast cut away from the game early as they destroyed the Bears 41-10. The Patriots are the type of team that can play spoiler to anyone but their future is bleak and we know that Bill Belichick will be leaving after this season. Despite boasting the 10th best defense in DVOA and taking down…Mitch Trubisky…I don’t trust the 27th ranked offense to compete in this one.
It’s crazy to see what kind of results these teams just had after their Black Friday game just a few weeks ago. The Dolphins offense is getting hurt again and they failed to produce without Tyreek Hill, and the Jets battered the Texans in a shocking 30-6 victory. I don’t expect things to go that way this time around. Zach Wilson will continue to be better for the offense than Tim Boyle, and we know that the secondary can limit offenses to nothing, but Miami is still well-suited to win here. The Jets run defense is their achilles heel and the Dolphins expectedly took advantage of that in their last game. Raheem Mostert continues to play like one of the best RBs in the league and De’Von Achane should still have some big plays in him. Even if Tyreek doesn’t play, I like the Dolphins with Waddle as their WR1.
Straight:
New York Jets Team Total Over 13.5 Points (Even)
The Jets managed to score 13 against the Dolphins in a game where Tim Boyle was starting and nobody looked especially good. The defense flustered Tua and made some good plays but they still can’t contain many elite offenses for very long. With a massive line and an expected win by the Dolphins, it should keep the Jets trying to score early and often. The Dolphins defense seems to have improved over the course of the season but they’re still very beatable and Zach Wilson is looking better. They should be better at hitting them on the ground this week, and they could rely on their defense for a score like last time. This number could still be disgustingly out of reach for the Jets but I have faith.
Dalton Schultz Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
The Tennessee Titans may be one of the most giving pass defenses in the league but that mainly applies to WRs. They’re only middle-of-the-pack against TEs in DVOA and allow the 2nd fewest fantasy points over average to the position. They haven’t faced many elite TEs this season but nobody has gone off against them. Additionally, Brevin Jordan has emerged as a solid option for the team with Schultz missing two weeks. I don’t expect Jordan to immediately become the top TE on the team but there’s a chance that he gets more playing time and that Schultz gets eased back into the game, especially with mounting injuries at the skill positions for the team and the playoffs on the line. Stroud’s concussion may play a part in Schultz’ success but the main concern is the other receivers. Tank Dell is already out for the year and Nico Collins and Noah Brown both have injury designations. Regardless, success will be hard to come by in this game and while Schultz may have to become a focal point, I like this line.
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by Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.