Welcome to Sleepers and Busts - Halloween Edition! The same sleeper and bust goodness with sleeper and bust Halloween candies as well! Let us know what your favorite candy is in the comments!
SLEEPERS
QB: Mac Jones - New England Patriots
Once again, I am in on Mac Jones after his big game in Week 7. Jones has had two QB1 games this season: last week against the Bills and Week 1 against the Eagles – an undeniably stout group of opponents to show up against. Jones travels to face the Dolphins for the second of their two divisional matchups this season. The Dolphins are the 9th easiest matchup in True Matchup Rank for quarterbacks and currently rank 24th in pass defense DVOA. Jones didn’t do anything special in their first matchup, managing to finish as a mid-range QB2 but has been trending in the right direction after three straight losses. Expert consensus rankings project Jones as the 30th best QB this week, leaving his roster percentages at an understandably low 9.0%. With that said, Jones has a decent array of offensive weapons, all of whom are facing positive matchups themselves. Rhamondre Stevenson may be in for a bigger week as the Dolphins are the 3rd best matchup for running backs in True Matchup Rank. Hunter Henry could also be featured heavily in a good matchup against the team allowing the 5th most DVOA to TEs. The Patriots offense overall should be able to move the ball against an exploitable Dolphins defense. Jones has underperformed in seemingly great matchups but he hasn’t had many easy outings this season. Outside of his first matchup against the Dolphins and a recent loss to the Raiders, Jones has faced some seriously tough defenses. No matter the case, there aren’t many quarterbacks in this readily available tier that I would risk starting as my QB1 this week over Jones.
Themi Michalakis
RB: Kareem Hunt - Cleveland Browns
With QB Deshaun Watson looking like a pop warner quarterback while attempting a comeback from his hurt shoulder last week, it's looking like former XFL superstar QB PJ Walker will find himself at the helm yet again (how's all the guaranteed money looking, Mr. Haslem?).
The winning formula for the Browns has been the defense and running game and that doesn't look to be slowing down this week despite starting RB Jarome Ford going down. While the fantasy cognoscente will be feeding you Pierre Strong propaganda because he out-snapped Hunt last week, it was Hunt who got the most opportunities, getting 11 touches (including the lone target once Ford went down) in just 19 snaps. This usage makes sense for a guy who was chilling on his couch at home just a few weeks ago.
Coming off an exhilarating win over the Colts that saw Browns QBs attempt a game-script-induced 37 passes, a season high, the team is still passing the ball at just barely over 50% of the time, with the seventh-highest run rate in the NFL. This week, they get the Seattle Seahawks, who have been particularly vulnerable to the pass catching RB out the of backfield, ranked as the 6th-best matchup for receiving backs according to True Matchup Ranking (download the Fantasy Football by Broto App to get this revolutionary stat, and tons more, for free). So far, the Browns have averaged just over five targets per game to the RB and Kareem Hunt is by-far the most capable receiving back on the roster, historically.
Hunt may not see the field more than 50% of the snaps, but when he does, he'll get an opportunity to lead a run-first offense in a plus matchup as 3-point favorites. All signs point to a mid-range RB2 floor and low-range RB1 ceiling for the veteran back.
SIDE NOTE: While Pierre Strong might not be the RB to play in this game, he is a great stash moving forward. Hunt has a lengthy history of injuries and Strong could see the field at a high rate if all three running backs listed above him on the depth chart are hurt. With the historical success of RBs in the Kevin Stefanski offense, including guys like Jerome Ford and D'Ernest Johnson, among others, it is clear that as long as the starting Browns running back has a pulse, he will have value in fantasy.
Tim Petropolous
WR: Jahan Dotson - Washington Commanders
The Commanders former first-round wideout has been somewhat disappointing this season, regressing from his year-one heights to a menial role within the offense in 2023. Unfortunately, that role is succinctly limited as Jahan Dotson has been relegated to a tertiary target behind Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel. Dotson has yet to surpass 50 yards in any contest despite seeing five or more targets every contest, save for Week 6 against the Falcons. With that said, Dotson appears to be trending in the right direction for a one-game blowup as the Commanders (3-4) host the defending NFC Champion Eagles (6-1) in a matchup between two bitter division rivals. The Eagles' secondary is a far cry away from their 2022 heights, allowing 227.4 passing yards (18th) and 20.1 points (16th) to opposing offenses this season. They are allowing 36.2 PPG to the wide receiver position, ranked 2nd in Broto Fantasy’s True Matchup Rank with an expected Points Over Average percentage of 46.0%. The Eagles defense also ranks 3rd in True Matchup Rank to opposing quarterbacks, giving up 19.8 PPG – 18.7 of which (63.0% Points Over Average) come via passing production alone. Furthermore, the Eagles are heavily favored despite being on the road. Vegas betting lines have set the spread at 7.0 points in the Eagles' favor with a projected Over/Under total of 43.5 points. The Commanders' defense has played well in some big spots but are still allowing 389.3 total yards (28th) and 27.1 points (29th) to their opponents, lending further evidence to a positive game script for the receivers as the team is expected to be playing from behind early and often. Dotson’s middling averages and opportunity share have been extremely difficult to plug into your lineups on a weekly basis but the Commanders' Week 8 matchup against the Eagles is far too good of a spot to pass up.
Matt Ward
TE: Jake Ferguson - Dallas Cowboys
Jake Ferguson falls in line with a long list of overlooked Cowboys tight ends to perform well above their yearly expectations. Since taking over for Dalton Schultz as the starter in 2023, Ferguson has posted three TE1 finishes, collecting at least seven targets in three of his first six games. Fresh off a Week 7 bye, the Cowboys (4-2) host a fantasy-friendly Rams (3-4) team who have gone 2-3 in their last five outings. Vegas favors the hometown Cowboys by 6.0 points with a projected Over/Under of 45.5 points, representing the second-highest total of the Week 8 slate (three matchups are projected at 46.5). The Rams' defense – anchored by Aaron Donald – has caused havoc on opposing backfields this season but has regressed as a complete unit. They are allowing 337.7 yards per game (12th), 209.0 passing yards per game (11th), and 117.0 rushing yards per game (20th) while conceding 20.1 points per game (16th) to their opponents. The Rams' defense allows 12.8 PPG to tight ends, ranking 1st amongst all defenses in True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average of 127.0% to the position. Ferguson has posted respectable averages in every outing, earning a 15.2% target share while leading the NFL with 11 total red zone opportunities despite not playing in Week 7. The Cowboys tight end is a must-start streamer in a sensational matchup.
Matt Ward
BUSTS
QB: Matthew Stafford - Los Angeles Rams
While Cooper Kupp returns to form and Puka Nacua blows the rookie class out of the water, Matthew Stafford is just there. He’s having a good season, no doubt, grading as PFF’s 6th-best quarterback and ranking 15th in EPA/play. The problem being is that he’s just not throwing for week-winning yardage totals, with a low touchdown rate as well. That’s not always an issue for the team’s overall success but it’s certainly annoying for fantasy purposes. Stafford is the QB15 on the season and QB18 in PPG. He has yet to finish as a QB1 in any given week but has seven straight QB2 finishes. He has exceeded 300 passing yards in three contests but has only scored multiple touchdowns in the same game on one occasion. He’s fourth in passing yards this season but tied with Mac Jones and Jimmy Garoppolo for the 17th-most touchdowns. Yuck. Stafford has also thrown six interceptions this season. To be fair, PFF ranks his turnover-worthy play percentage quite low and they also have his receivers marked down for 12 drops - 3rd most in the league. We shouldn’t expect him to underperform as a fantasy asset each week but he heads into hostile territory against a well-rested Cowboys team that ranks as the 4th hardest quarterback fantasy matchup in True Matchup Rank. The Cowboys are also 3rd in pass defense DVOA. Stafford is rostered in 72% of fantasy leagues with projections soaring as high as a borderline QB1. He should continue to operate as a very safe fantasy asset but the difficult matchup makes me scared for his already limited upside. This is just not a challenge I’m willing to bet my week on.
Themi Michalakis
RB: Aaron Jones - Green Bay Packers
If there is one thing you can always count on in football, its that soft tissue injuries will linger longer than James Franco in Pineapple Express. Since his RB1 overall finish in Week 1, Jones has missed all but three games, failing to reach double-digit fantasy points in those contests. This week, Jones gets his division rival in the Minnesota Vikings, which looks to be a plus matchup...right? Not so fast. The Brian Flores-led Vikings defense has been much improved this season, especially against the pass catching running back. So far on the young season, Minnesota is in the bottom-third in matchups for running backs, ranked as the 11th worst True Matchup Ranking, and they've been particularly stingy against the pass-catchers out of the backfield. The Vikings have allowed just 3.4 PPR PPG against the pass catching running back, 34% under their average and the third-worst matchup in the NFL (download the Fantasy Football by Broto App to get this revolutionary stat, and tons more, for free). On top of that, RB AJ Dillion is coming off of his best two games of the season, finishing as an RB2 each week while getting a combined 38 opportunities in that span.
Furthermore, the Packers offense has been absolutely dreadful, running the 5th fewest plays of any team while failing to score more than 20 points as an offense since Week 3. A limited practice on Thursday puts Jones in line to get a little more work this week, but count me out on a part-time back in a slow offense, in a terrible matchup, splitting carries.
Tim Petropoulos
WR: DeAndre Hopkins - Tennessee Titans
The loss of Ryan Tannehill (at least for one week) leaves an already sputtering Titans (2-4) offense in a near-insurmountable position as the team hosts a surprisingly stout Falcons defense (4-3) at home in Week 8. Rookie quarterback Will Levis will likely make his NFL debut as the team’s starter but second-year rushing specialist Malik Willis is reportedly going to mix into the game plan depending on the down and situation. If a monumental downgrade at quarterback isn’t enough to scare managers off the veteran wideout, perhaps the Falcons' defensive averages will. The Falcons are allowing a mere 298.4 total yards per game (2nd), with 190.1 passing yards (7th) and 95.3 rushing yards (8th) to their opponents while giving up just 19.0 points (9th) on average. They concede a mere 20.9 PPG combined to rival wide receivers as the defense ranks 30th overall in True Matchup Rank to the position with a Points Over Average of negative (-) 29.0%. DeAndre Hopkins has been nothing more than a disappointing Flex play as his age and quarterback-proof moniker have seemingly caught up with the veteran wideout. He is averaging a mere 10.8 PPG (WR48) despite earning a 29.2% Target Share (WR12) and 39.1% Red Zone Target Share (WR8). Hopkins has nine total red zone opportunities this season (WR8) and a 40.6% Air Yards Share (WR9) but has yet to find the end zone this season. Hopkins' seven scoreless games are the longest stretch without a touchdown during his NFL career. Searching for regression towards the norm against the shadow coverage of A.J. Terrell could lead to a losing week for Hopkins fantasy managers. Temper expectations and downgrade the low-level flex into a benchable asset in Week 8.
Matt Ward
TE: Evan Engram - Jacksonville Jaguars
There is an argument to be made that the Jaguars have yet to reach their full potential as a passing offense. Unfortunately, it is also unlikely that Evan Engram will help them reach those heights against a Steelers defense that limits tight ends to 6.4 PPG (6th). The Jaguars (5-2) are 2.5-point road favorites against the Steelers (4-2) who enter the Week 8 matchup fresh off a resounding defensive performance against the Rams. The Steelers' defense ranks 30th in True Matchup Rank to tight ends as their 6.4 PPG allowed represents a negative (-) 31.0% Points Over Average rating for the position. The Steelers have faced George Kittle (Week 1), David Njoku (Week 2), Michael Mayer (Week 3), Dalton Schultz (Week 4), Mark Andrews (Week 5) and Tyler Higbee (Week 7), all of whom have culminated in one TE1 performance (Schultz) with four finishes outside of the top 25 (Kittle, Njoku, Mayer, Higbee) witth an Andrews TE13 outing sandwiched in between. Engram has found a home within the Jaguars offense as one of their top pass-catchers but his 10.8 PPG (TE6) remains lightyears away from the elite production of the top-tier players at the position. Any projected decrease in production for Engram places him in a tier well below the weekly must-start tight ends.
Matt Ward
HALLOWEEN CANDY SLEEPERS
Crunch Bar
The crunch bar is like a standard chocolate bar but offers a different texture to break from the monotony. The only major addition is crisped rice which isn’t overpowering or tough to eat like caramel or nougat. I’m not saying the crunch bar is a superior chocolate experience or that it should rival the likes of Kit Kat. What I’m saying is that this is an extremely safe choice that you will load up on and can trade for in massive quantities. It tastes good - fine at worst! While it’s not universally hated, it’s seen as filler when it’s not that far off from a standard chocolate bar. Those who can appreciate the crunch bar are my kind of sophisticated people.
Themi Michalakis
York Mint Patty
Nothing hits quite like the palate cleanser of a fresh minty chocolate treat after you’ve gorged on infinite amounts of other sweet and salty snacks. The York Mint (or whatever brand your prefer) dark chocolate patty offers an excellent switch up from the mundane repetition of milk chocolates.
Matt Ward
3 Musketeers
You might think you don’t like 3 Musketeers when someone asks you, “Do you like 3 Musketeers?” but I encourage you to look deep into your palate and give it another shot. 3 Musketeers differs greatly from other typical chocolate candy bars as the fluffy and light nougat center gives you a tremendous texture that is not too hard, sticky or chewy. It is just a tremendous soft bite of delicious chocolate with an unmatched texture. It is likely the all-time most disrespected chocolate. Sign me up all day for the Halloween candy bar that is the true test of Halloween connoisseurs everywhere.
Michael Petropoulos
HALLOWEEN CANDY BUSTS
Jolly Ranchers
Before you attack me, I have nothing against Jolly Ranchers as an actual candy. They taste good and last long. That’s actually where the problem lies. On Halloween you’re trying to snack on as much candy as humanly possible before you go into a sugar coma and wonder why you do this to yourself every single year. Even as a kid there’s only so much you can handle and it only gets worse with age. Jolly Ranchers are one of the few incredibly popular hard candies you get. They’re so small that you’ll probably go home with dozens of them. It’s just unreasonable to expect yourself to cram sugar in your mouth while waiting for one of these to melt. And running while doing it? Forget about it. You then have to decide if you want to end the experience and chew on it and turn it into pseudo-glass shards. In the days following Halloween you may even pool your family's candy together. If you keep munching on Jolly Ranchers, you’re never going to get your fair share of the rest of the pot. When everything else is gone these will last, like roaches in an apocalypse.
Themi Michalakis
Candy Apples
Tradition be damned, this is the season for overindulgence of chocolates, salts, and sugars. I have no interest in mixing a fruit into my diet on Halloween Night, even if it is covered in liquid candy! Candy Apples deserve to be benched in favor of more high upside products like Reese’s Minis and Crunch Bars.
Matt Ward
Starburst/Hard Candy
I have always appreciated chocolate more than candy but the older I get the more I realize chocolate is the far, far superior option. All candy is, is simply loads of sugar with artificial ingredients that taste super artificial. Whether it be starburst, jolly ranchers, skittles, or any other hard candy. Meanwhile, you have delicious chocolate that melts in your mouth and just tastes real. Get your candy out of here. Pass the chocolate.
Michael Petropoulos
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.