A 1-6 week loses 5.02 units and puts us just shy of a unit lost on the season. These past two weeks have been especially bad, wiping away all the profit we had made. There’s still plenty of time in the season and hopefully Week 8 will be much kinder.
2023 Total: 18-16, -0.985u
Teasers:
Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) @ Arizona Cardinals O/U: 44
Detroit Lions (-8) @ Las Vegas Raiders O/U: 46.5
Themi’s Teaser: Ravens -2.5, Lions -1
Betting on a great Lions team to win and also cover +9 against the Ravens was a mistake in hindsight, as Lamar Jackson was able to do anything he wanted against them. Jared Goff’s inability to show up in away games wasn’t the biggest issue as he faced one of the best defenses in the league. Now facing a putrid Cardinals defense, the Ravens should continue to dominate. It will be hard to put up a performance like last weeks and Arizona has a tendency to stay in games for far too long but they’re not taking Baltimore down with ease. The Ravens are now 1st in DVOA, boasting a top-5 offense and the 2nd best defense in the league. The Cardinals weren’t able to take advantage of two juicy divisional matchups and only combined for 19 points the past two weeks. It’s no surprise that, outside of a fluke win against Dallas, Arizona has only exceeded 20 points once this season. That was against the Giants who can’t even begin to stack up against the Ravens. To their credit, Arizona is 16th in offensive DVOA but they have been falling fast after peaking as a top-10 offense early in the season. As the weeks go on, we truly discover who these teams are, and Arizona is a team that can come out to play each week while ultimately falling in the end. Take the Ravens down to a field goal on a 7-point teaser at -140.
The Lions really let people down last week. Offensive issues aside, their defense was torn apart. Allowing nearly a first down on every play is absolutely insane but thankfully not something we can expect from the Raiders. Oakland ranks 31st in offensive DVOA and couldn’t even manage to put up a respectable offensive performance against the Bears. Their defense also allowed D2 undrafted QB Tyson Bagent to lead Chicago to a 30-12 victory. Bagent didn’t need to do much and relied on a strong run game but still got the job done. The same couldn’t be said for neither Brian Hoyer nor Aidan O’Connell, who took Jimmy Garoppolo’s place for the game. His presumed return should be good for the Raiders offense, but they have still been pretty ineffective. The Lions still feature a top-10 defense that looks much more exploitable but should play quite well. Jared Goff and the offense can’t be expected to stay stifled for long. At home on Monday Night Football and coming off a terrible loss, Detroit should bounce back and beat one of the worst teams in the league. Even if Jimmy Garoppolo can play, I trust Detroit up to -2.5 but pairing them in a 7-point teaser with Baltimore should keep them around -1.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) @ Washington Commanders O/U: 43.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-7) @ Denver Broncos O/U: 46
Themi’s Teaser: Eagles -0.5, Chiefs -1
It feels like I’m setting myself up for failure to bet on another lopsided matchup. The Commanders have been a real thorn in the Eagles’ side. Last season they ended Philadelphia’s unbeaten streak and this season they brought them to OT. This division is just so hard to predict at times but it would be foolish to not tease this line. If you simply removed the team names and instead looked at the stats, it would immediately be obvious that one team is overwhelmingly better. The Eagles are one of the more well-rounded teams in the league and possess one of the best rushing offenses and defenses in the league. With two elite receivers and a top TE and RB for Jalen Hurts to have fun with, it’s nearly impossible to stop this team for long. If you do manage to get this team to a 4th and 1 situation, they could pull out the legendary Tush Push/Brotherly Shove to almost guarantee a first down. The pass defense is still susceptible but improving after dealing with injuries to start the year. They’ve also traded for All-Pro Safety Kevin Byard to help the secondary. The Commanders have a solid run defense but struggle to contain receivers while also failing to move the ball with consistency. Offensive line issues have plagued this team and Sam Howell is on pace to get sacked 97 times this season. He now faces an Eagles defense that has already racked up 24 sacks and is generating pressure on 27.6% of opposing drop backs, the 6th highest rate in the league. Washington may bounce back from their awful offensive performance last week and once again show up against the Eagles, but Philadelphia should win outright.
The Chiefs haven’t lost to the Broncos since 2015. While Denver has given them trouble in recent years, there just continues to be a massive disparity between these two teams. Denver is a tough place to play in but that hasn’t stopped Mahomes from balling out over there. The Chiefs are unsurprisingly one of the best offensive teams in the league. What’s less appreciated is their defense. Kansas City has not allowed a team to exceed 21 points scored and ranks 5th in DVOA. Denver has had some good offensive performances but they’re not elite on that front and still feature the worst defense in the league. Although the Chiefs only put up 19 points at home against the Broncos a couple of weeks ago, there’s no reason to expect anything other than another win by Mahomes and company.
Straight:
Jets -3 (-105)
Giants Team Total Under 16.5 (+105)
The Commanders had every chance to take down the Giants last week but just could not string together more than a few successful plays on even their best drives. Sam Howell was getting hit like he got paid to get sacked and the offensive line didn’t stand a chance. Now once again at “Home”, the Giants get to face the hometown rival Jets. Zach Wilson has been the 6th most sacked QB in the league this year but his 19 pales in comparison to Howell’s 40. Of the Giant’s 11 sacks, 6 came against Howell last week. For a team that blitzed on 41.6% of opposing drop backs (3rd highest), they are only about average at generating hurries and pressures. Wilson has been pressured on 31.9% of his drop backs but still manages to evade a good number of sacks. Offensive line issues may crop up as the Jets aren’t particularly good at pass blocking either. In fact, they’re one of the worst. PFF grades their total pass blocking as the 26th best in the league and the Giants are dead last. Both teams grade similarly average as pass-rushing units but the Jets have been able to pressure QBs at a higher rate. They’re also significantly better than both the Giants and Commanders on defense, ranking 11th in DVOA. Their offense may be bottom-5 but the Giants have, quite literally, the worst offense in the league. Surprisingly, they actually had their first positive offensive DVOA game this past week with Tyrod Taylor at QB. At the risk of repeating last week’s mess, I’m double-dipping on a Giants game again. The Jets may struggle but they should narrowly edge the Giants in a pseudo-home game after the bye. The Giants have not shown any sort of offensive success against solid defenses and are worth taking the under on their team total despite a bit of an awkward number.
Vikings -1.5 (-110)
Minnesota is really trying to shake off their fraud tag from last season. Although this team is not particularly elite on either side of the ball, they’ve managed to play well of late. After starting 0-3, Minnesota is now 3-4 and well within the hunt for a wild card spot or even a divisional title. The Vikings have not lost a game by more than 7 points this season and have lost to talented teams like the Chiefs, Eagles, and Chargers. The Buccaneers beat them by 3 in Week 1 but that first week can be flukey and Tampa has one of the better defenses in the league. The Vikings heads into Lambeau to take on the Packers in what should be a close divisional matchup. Jordan Love has had some lackluster box scores recently but truly looks like he can keep this team in some games and lead them to a solid record. His hot start to the season has fizzled out but I’m not counting him out just yet. Unfortunately for him, the defense is letting him down. While they haven’t allowed a ton of points, they’ve allowed mediocre offenses to not only stay competitive but straight up beat them. Green Bay ranks 27th in defensive DVOA and can be beaten both on the ground and through the air. The Vikings may have lost Justin Jefferson but they rank 14th on offense and have found a 1st round stud in Jordan Addison. Neither team is that good on the ground but the defensive difference and a red hot Kirk Cousins should take this one in enemy territory.
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Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.