Gobble gobble! It is time for Turkey Bets! There is nothing quite like a parlay or two to get your mind off of Uncle Greg asking you about politics or Grandma wondering when you’re going to get married.
Our bellies will be full of beer and turkey but who needs stuffing when we’re stuffing our wallets? (I hate myself for that, I'm sorry).
Thanksgiving football is here and it is time to get ready for the ultimate squad ride!
The Main Course
Let’s fill those plates with our favorite staples!
Bills @ Lions
Yebscore.com
The Lions are a wagon. They are coming off of their third consecutive win to improve to 4-6 on the season, while most of their losses were close games, with four of their six losses ending in a margin of 4 points or less. Detroit is also 6-4 ATS this season.
Buffalo, on the other hand, has failed to cover in three of their last four contests, with the only cover just barely covering by half a point. Coincidentally enough, Buffalo played in Detroit last week due to weather but traveled back to Buffalo for the short week before traveling back to Detroit again to prepare for the game.
All things considered, the Lions are riding a hot streak right now and ten points is too many points. I expect a Bills victory but you might be surprised how close this one ends up.
Schiz picks: Lions +9.5 (-105)
Giants @ Cowboys
My New York Giants let us down last week, dropping an ugly one to the aforementioned Detroit Lions. They still have a second best 7-3 ATS record, however, and one of the best coaching staffs in the NFL.
Last week, we saw a Cowboys team that was fresh off a choke job in Green Bay absolutely dismantle the then 8-1 Minnesota Vikings. It was an impressive performance but we should not allow recency bias to sway us too much. Yes, Dallas is a legitimate contender, but they have holes and exploitable points that Wink Martindale and Brian Daboll will need to key in on.
While I fully expect the Giants to ruin my Thanksgiving, ten points is once again too many points for such an important divisional matchup.
Schiz picks: Giants +9.5 (-110)
Patriots @ Vikings
Speaking of the Vikings, anybody who sat through their Sunday matchup with Dallas in Week 11 knows that this team is capable of some very low lows. They are also capable of some very high highs.
If we think back to just a week before last, the total team effort to come back and beat the Bills on the road in overtime was impressive and not worth forgetting. The Vikings had an off day and played poorly against a solid Cowboys team last week. They were out coached and outclassed.
This week, they get a new challenge against a team with a very stagnant offense and no quarterback identity. And while this game may technically be considered “primetime,” given the history of the Lions and Cowboys on Thanksgiving, it feels like it has the least pressure of the slate. I am not worried about Kirk or the Vikings in this matchup. A spread less than a field goal is too enticing to ignore.
Schiz picks: Vikings -2.5 (-110)
The Sides
So many sides to choose from on Thanksgiving! You got to get a little bit of everything!
Devin Singletary Anytime TD Scorer (-135)
Devin Singletary has become a key member of the Bills red zone offense. A unit that used to be led by Josh Allen as their goal line back but now has placed a higher emphasis on protecting him and his health. Despite locking down Saquon Barkley last week, the Lions still have a weak rush defense, so I like Singletary’s chances to find the endzone.
Amon-Ra St. Brown o75.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
ARSB has been an integral part of the Lions recent success, eclipsing this yardage total in two of the last three games. For all the credit the Bills defense deserves, their True Matchup statistics indicate that their weakness is to the wide receiver, giving up middle of the pack totals in points. They have been especially bad against opposing WR1s of late. Just look at Cooper and Jefferson. I expect St. Brown to get peppered with targets and surpass this total.
Daniel Jones o37.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
In Week 2 when these two teams met, Jones totaled 79 rushing yards. In fact, he tends to either totally blows this figure out of the water or he does not really come close. In every good game the Giants have played this season, he has done the former. The Giants know Jones’ rushing ability is a key piece of their offense and in order to be successful, they will have to find ways to make it happen.
Tony Pollard o19.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Although Pollard’s receiving totals can be very inconsistent, the Dallas “backup” RB is coming off a game with over 100 receiving yards, most of which came after the catch. If I know one thing about the New York Giants, it is that they get beat when plays break down. I expect Pollard to have at least one catch in this matchup that flirts with this line from just a single play, and get plenty of receiving work overall as well.
Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (+100)
Although I am expecting Minnesota to bounce back in this matchup, their defense likely does not have what it takes to hold the Patriots scoreless. Rhamondre has been their guy all year and as a top pass catching option for New England, I like his chances to find the endzone against the defense that allows the most points over average to the receiving back.
TJ Hockenson Anytime TD (+220)
As the Broto boys love to say, Bill Belichick tries to take away your number one strength on offense and make you beat them in another way. Is that Justin Jefferson? Is that Dalvin Cook? It certainly is not TJ Hockenson, who continues to see a decently large target share considering the other members of his formidable offense. New England is 7th in True Matchup Rank to opposing tight ends, so this feels like a solid TD dart.
Time for Dessert!
The ultimate feast is always concluded by stuffing yourself with more dessert than you can handle, but you do it anyway because it just doesn’t feel right if you don’t.
Anytime TD Scorer Parlay:
Devin Singletary
Jamaal Williams
Saquon Barkley
CeeDee Lamb
Justin Jefferson
Rhamondre Stevenson
+6039
$25 wins $1510 (let’s have a day).
This year, I am thankful that I get to continue writing for this awesome company and share my love of sports betting with all of you! Thank you for following along and riding every week. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
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By Mike “Schiz” Schissel
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.