Week 12 Buy Low and Sell High

With Week 11 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on two buy-low targets and three sell-high targets heading into Week 12! Although the majority of redraft leagues have surpassed the trade deadline, the dynasty market is as hot as ever.

Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!

BUY LOW

Donovan Peoples-Jones WR - Cleveland Browns

Donovan Peoples-Jones has recorded 70 or more receiving yards in five of his last seven games with only one finish outside of the top 34 wide receivers. He has proven to be a serviceable flex option this season, earning an 18.4% target share while posting 9.8 PPG.

Peoples-Jones has surprisingly led the Browns in snap percentage and route participation for three consecutive contests and has been trending up as more than a simple secondary option in the passing attack. The young wideout’s trend in usage is arriving at an apex with a monumental change in the offense. The Browns will play one more game with Jacoby Brissett at the helm before welcoming back Deshaun Watson from suspension.

There are justifiably safe assumptions that Watson will be able to lift the offense to a new height with his sensational on-field talents. Peoples-Jones' rising role has yet to be met by market-shifting production but the addition of Watson could change that with just one big game. Managers should get ahead of a potentially massive market transition by acquiring the Browns' young wideout for a menial cost before Watson makes his return against the Texans in Week 13. 

Rhamondre Stevenson RB - New England Patriots

One big play from the dusty remains of Damien Harris has Rhanondre Stevenson’s managers panicking in the belief that the Patriots backfield has returned to the dark ages of a running-back-by-committee approach. The unmitigated fear of over-reactionary fantasy players may have opened up a lucrative buying window for those with a keener eye.

A closer look into the team’s usage and snap percentages quickly debunks the narrative of Harris’ resurgence, lending further evidence to Stevenson’s continued role as a three-down workhorse. Harris managed 65 rushing yards on eight carries, 30 of which came on one play. The Patriots' veteran running back played just 24.0% of the offensive snaps (15), earning a 34.8% rushing share (8 RSH) and two targets (7.4%). The younger, more versatile Stevenson played 78.0% of the offensive snaps, maintaining his team-leading opportunity share with 15 carries (65.2 RSH%) and six targets (22.2%).

Stevenson led the Patriots in receiving, catching all six of his targets for 56 yards but was less effective than Harris on the ground with just 26 rushing yards (1.7 YPC). Stevenson is a low-end RB1 with an elite target share as a dual-threat running back in an offensive system designed for maximizing his talents. A one-game discrepancy in rushing production between Harris and Stevenson is all we need to attack the trade market for positive value gains. 

SELL HIGH

Najee Harris RB - Pittsburgh Steelers

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Optimistic managers will look at Najee Harris’ one game of decent production in Week 11 as a positive sign of an upward trend. Savvy managers see Harris’ bottom-feeding efficiency metrics and will use Week 11 as a selling point for anyone foolish enough to take the bait.

Najee Harris is averaging just 11.7 PPG (RB25), despite posting a 79.6% rushing opportunity share and 9.5% target share this season. He ranks 44th in PPOxTD, whittling away into irrelevance without Ben Roethlisberger around to pepper him with targets behind the line of scrimmage. Harris is riding high on the back of a two-touchdown performance against the Bengals, opening up an opportunity for managers to secure a return on investment while simultaneously ridding themselves of a volatile and declining asset. The Steelers' second-year running back has just two games inside of the RB1 threshold with seven games outside of the top 20. Harris’ RB3 overall outing in Week 11 is nothing more than an aberration of unsustainable production attached to positive regression in the touchdown column. The plodding thumper will not maintain two touchdowns a game moving forward and will continue to fall into a valueless abyss following this strong performance.

Managers should attempt to group Harris’ name value with his recent week of high-end production and push their chips in on another asset of similar value, even if it means taking a loss on the original cost of investment. 

Isiah Pacheco RB - Kansas City Chiefs

It is always a good process to hit the eject button and sell Day 3 rookie running back prospects who hit their absolute peak in perceived value. Isaiah Pacheco was two picks away from going undrafted, beating all odds to carve out a succinct role for himself as the Chiefs' early-down running back. Two-down grinders who do not catch passes or provide any meaningful value outside of rushing work are not the type of assets managers should openly invest in without caution.

Seventh-round draft picks have little-to-no value insulation, regardless of production. Pacheco’s placement as the 30th pick in Round 7 of the 2022 NFL Draft is nothing more than formulaic. Expecting a near-undrafted one-dimensional role player to maintain relevance beyond a few weeks of middling production is ill-advised.

Luckily, managers can use Pacheco’s 101-yard outburst in Week 11 to take advantage of oft-ignored market bias I like to call the “Mahomes Perception.” Silly as it may be, there is a tangible anchoring perception that every offensive player on the Chiefs has the potential to be an elite positional asset simply because Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback. Managers can find evidence of this trend in Marques Valdez-Scantling and Mecole Hardman’s rising offseason ADP or in Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s head-scratching placement ahead of Jonathan Taylor in their respective rookie class. The recent treatment of Pacheco is no different. The Chiefs rookie has only one game with more than 85 rushing yards this season, conceding valuable snaps and passing work to Jerrick McKinnon despite being named the Chiefs' “starting” running back four weeks ago.

Place Pacheco on your league trade market to see if managers are willing to pay for the jersey that he wears rather than the yards he produces.

Brandin Cooks WR - Houston Texans

Brandin Cooks’ disgruntled disposition with the Texans' front office has seemingly forced a changing of the guard between the veteran wideout and third-year receiver Nico Collins. Cooks has conceded the team's top spot in snaps and targets to Collins since returning from a one-game absence (personal/wrist). Cooks’ target share has hovered below 20.0% in the last two games (18.9%, 18.2%) while Collins has posted shares of 27.0% and 21.2%, respectively.

The Texans are in no position to compete, valuing development over wins in their future game plans. Collins is a capable lead wideout in the Texans' struggling offense, leaving an aging and uninterested Cooks to take on a new role as the secondary option. Davis Mills does not produce a high enough volume of valuable targets to support Cooks in a reduced role. The second-year quarterback has a True Throw Value rating of just 0.409 (QB26), completing just 61.9% (QB30) of his pass attempts at an average of 6.5 yards per attempt.

Cooks’ value as a mid-range WR2 is attached to his name alone as his production dwindles into a disappointing tier of replacement-level players. Managers should search relentlessly to find a stout believer in Cooks as an underrated overachiever in an attempt to squeeze out the last bit of value the veteran receiver holds.

Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward