With Week 10 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on three buy-low targets and three sell-high targets heading into Week 12!
Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!
BUY LOW
Marquise Brown WR - Arizona Cardinals
The return of Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is imminent and fast approaching. The Cardinals' star receiver was placed on injured reserve following a Week 6 loss to the Seahawks but has since cleared the mandatory four-game window and could be cleared to play at any moment.
Head coach Kliff Kingsbury was quoted saying, “I think he’s getting to the point where it’s going to be day-to-day. He’s come a long way in a short time and I’m not sure if he’ll make it this week (Week 11) but hopefully sooner rather than later. If not, we’ll give him the bye week (Week 12), and then I would expect those last five games he’ll be ready to go.”
Prior to the injury, Hollywood recorded 43 receptions (7.2 REC/G) on 64 targets (10.7 TGT/G) for 485 receiving yards (80.8 REC YDS/G), averaging 18.3 PPR PPG (WR8). The former Ravens wideout was pacing towards a career-best season before being sidelined and should continue his dominance upon his return should health permit. Naysayers will doubt Brown’s ability to maintain his elite target ceiling alongside DeAndre Hopkins and second-year breakout Rondale Moore. Those doubters should take into account the fact that Brown has never been the secondary receiving option at any point in his career (save for his rookie year), including collegiate seasons at Oklahoma wherein he shared the field with current league-leading target earners Mark Andrews and CeeDee Lamb. He earned a 26.3% target share through the first six games when healthy, and will likely maintain close to the 25.0% threshold upon return. Managers can acquire this league-winning asset at a discount from desperate contenders who need points now. If you have your playoff spot under wraps, consider making a move to increase your firing power for that championship run by pursuing offers on a player with top-10 positional upside.
Rachaad White RB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The changing of the guard in the Buccaneers' backfield was foreshadowed in Week 9 when Rachaad White received more rushing opportunities than running back cohort Leonard Fournette. Those past assumptions manifested in Week 10 where the rookie handled 22 carries for 105 yards (10.5 PPR PTS) as opposed to Fournette’s 15 total touches for 58 scrimmage yards and one touchdown (12.8 PPR PTS). White played 64.0% of the offensive snaps (48) whereas Fournette saw a season-low in playing time, recording 29.0% of the offensive snaps (22) but maintained a respectable opportunity share. While Fournette did miss time near the end of the game, White was playing ahead of him even with the veteran RB healthy to kick it off.
Managers may be foolishly overlooking the duo’s usage splits in place of their Week 10 fantasy output, allowing for a swift buy-low scenario. The surprising stat in Week 10, or lack thereof, was White’s goose egg in the receiving columns. A premier pass-catcher, White was surprisingly utilized as the every-down rusher as the young upstart running back continued to concede receiving work to his veteran teammate. Fournette has appeared woefully inefficient with every touch this season, averaging a mere 0.85 fantasy points per opportunity (RB33) despite a 72.0% opportunity share (RB11). There is no reason to believe that White’s takeover will stop at rushing attempts alone.
The Buccaneers' rookie running back has the potential to be a league-winning asset if his ever-growing opportunity share bleeds into Fournette’s receiving work.
Jeff Wilson RB - Miami Dolphins
The Phinsider
A similarly overlooked takeover as the one mentioned above is happening in the Dolphins' backfield with two former 49ers running backs vying for the leading role. Head coach Mike McDaniel immediately thrust Jeff Wilson into a high-value role upon his arrival. In his first game after being traded to the Dolphins from the 49ers, Wilson recorded one more snap and target than Mostert while matching his teammate with nine rushing attempts. In Week 10, Wilson shouldered 61.0% of the offensive snaps (42), earning five targets (15.2%) and 17 carries (60.7 RSH%). Mostert, on the other hand, saw just 28.0% of the offensive snaps (19) with eight carries (28.6 RSH%) and four targets (12.1%). The window of opportunity for managers to buy the Dolphins RB1(A) is still wide open as Mostert’s 16.7 PPR points (RB10) in Week 10 create a false narrative of a more even opportunity split. The Dolphins duo are both individually capable of putting up week-winning numbers in a committee. The familiarity the duo share with head coach Mike McDaniel and his complex offensive system has greatly benefited both in their time as NFL pros. With that said, Wilson appears to be the more valuable fantasy asset as his scoring ceiling is not tied to the unpredictable variance of touchdown production.
SELL HIGH
Raheem Mostert RB - Miami Dolphins
Please see above. Raheem Mostert has been a must-start running back for much of the season as he quickly took over the Dolphins' lead role from Chase Edmonds. Edmonds was abruptly traded to the Broncos on the November 1st trade deadline, bringing in a familiar face in Jeff Wilson to become his replacement. Little did we know at the time, Wilson was truly brought in to supplant Mostert, pushing his current and former teammate down the depth chart as the secondary option. As we mentioned above, the teammate’s shared a near-identical usage split during Wilson’s first game. If Week 10 was any indication, the short-lived committee is turning into a one-way track that leaves Mostert in a downgraded position. Managers can levy Mostert’s top-10 fantasy performance in Week 10 into an asset with higher projected value for the rest of the season. I would attempt to trade Mostert in a one-for-one swap to acquire Jeff Wilson to any unsuspecting manager that values the latter option as a simple waiver wire pickup.
James Conner RB - Arizona Cardinals
James Conner regained relevance in Week 10, rushing for 69 yards (nice) despite touting 21 carries (not nice). Finally healthy, there is optimism that Conner’s production will increase in the coming weeks. That confidence was seemingly cemented by the Cardinals organization as Eno Benjamin was released in a surprise move this week. Fantasy managers should not be foolish enough to share the same bravado as the Cardinals' front office. Conner’s inefficiencies as a rusher were once again masked by the same volatile touchdown production that upheld his RB1 season in 2021. He’s posting a middling target share of just 9.3% this season, leaving managers to rely on menial rushing output and unsustainable touchdown numbers. The Cardinals veteran is plodding his way to an average of 3.8 YPC, 44.9 rushing yards/6.3 receiving yards per game and 0.53 PPOxTD (29th). Conner’s dreadful efficiency metrics suggest major regression in fantasy points if he is unable to uphold his absurd touchdown rate.
Kadarius Toney WR - Kansas City Chiefs
Kadarius Toney rose to the occasion after the Chiefs were left with a depleted receiving corps amidst several injuries in Week 10. Toney took advantage of the opportunity, catching four of five targets for 57 yards and one touchdown against the Jaguars. The newly-acquired Chiefs receiver was an obvious benefactor of an in-game injury sustained by JuJu Smith-Schuster and the absence of secondary option Mecole Hardman. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson both played more snaps than Toney following Smith-Schuster’s injury. Free looks on a depleted depth chart against a busted Jaguars secondary will not be the norm for the former first-round pick. Toney will need to ascend above all the previously mentioned wideouts, not to mention Travis Kelce, if he hopes to maintain fantasy relevance for the rest of the 2022 season. Week 10 was likely a peak performance from the promising young pass-catcher. Wide receivers attached to Patrick Mahomes will always carry added weight in trade negotiations simply due to the quarterback’s immense talents. Managers should parade Toney’s blow-up performance around their league’s message boards in hopes of baiting a possible overpay for a tertiary receiver buried on a crowded depth chart.
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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By Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.