With Week 7 of the NFL season in the books, Broto Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on three buy-low targets and three sell-high targets heading into Week 8!
Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!
BUY LOW
George Pickens WR - Pittsburgh Steelers
Yahoo! Sports
George Pickens is a human highlight reel filled with game-breaking grabs and pancake blocks against unsuspecting defensive backs. The rookie’s hard-nosed attitude and early-season production scream alpha receiver. Fortunately, for fantasy managers, his stock on the trade market is not yet reflective of his growing role. Pickens has scored more than 12 fantasy points in three of his last four games, earning 28 targets (7 per game average) with 21 receptions (5.25 average) for 273 yards (68.25 average). The Steelers blossoming young wideout remains locked behind Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool in terms of snap and route participation but has begun to outperform both of his veteran teammates even with limited opportunities. Over the past four games, Pickens flashed the ammo to spark a powder keg of WR1 output to close out the second half of his rookie season.
Week 4-7 Game Splits:
Targets:
Diontae Johnson - 34
Chase Claypool - 26
George Pickens - 28
Receptions:
Diontae Johnson - 17
Chase Claypool - 17
George Pickens - 19
Receiving Yards:
Diontae Johnson - 141
Chase Claypool - 187
George Pickens - 273
Pickens’ four-game splits lead all Steelers pass-catchers in receiving production while trailing Diontae Johnson by a mere six targets. It is worth noting that this four-game sample size includes a lowly three-reception performance by Pickens against the Buccaneers where he gained only 27 yards. The overlooked narrative in Pickens' outlier performance is that Mitchell Trubisky was under center for most of the Buccaneers game after rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett was put into concussion protocol. In the games in which Pickett has remained under center, Pickens has been the top target by a wide margin, averaging a target on 32.28% of Pickett’s dropbacks. A gigantic spike in value and production is on the rise for Pickens as he builds a rapport with his rookie quarterback. The Steelers are reportedly shopping around Chase Claypool in trade offers before the league’s November 1st deadline. Any movement on the Steelers' depth chart would ultimately open up a massive role for Pickens. An increase in snap percentages and route participation could lead to consistent WR2 production for Pickens to close out the season. Managers should attempt to use his low rank on the Steelers depth chart to get ahead of potential market shifts before the takeover is complete.
Daniel Jones
Brian Daboll has turned the Giants into an NFC juggernaut seemingly overnight. The former Bills offensive coordinator is orchestrating and executing smart, smashmouth football while letting his quarterback and running back rush the ball down the throat of opposing defenses. Through seven games of the NFL season, Daniel Jones has more rushing yards than Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray. In Week 7, the Giants signal-caller rushed 11 times for 107 yards and one touchdown while completing 19/30 attempts for 202 yards and another touchdown. He finished with 30.78 fantasy points as the QB4 and is averaging 17.2 PPG this season, ranked QB10 overall. Jones has boosted his underrated rushing floor with good ball security and passing metrics, albeit on low volume. Jones’ decision-making is still questionable at times but it has not cost the team valuable possessions like in years past. The dual-threat quarterback has completed 126/189 pass attempts (66.67%) for 1,223 yards and six touchdowns with just two interceptions this season. The anchoring bias of Jones’ past production will forever keep his name valued below his current situation. The Giants are optimizing every weapon on the offense to the best of their abilities, turning Jones into a serviceable low-end QB1 in fantasy this season. Jones is a strong buy-low candidate in both 1QB and Superflex leagues. I would be more than willing to move aging and declining quarterbacks such as Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers for Daniel Jones if managers are foolishly attaching current value to past legacy.
Tee Higgins WR - Cincinnati Bengals
It is never encouraging to see your favorite receiver on the wrong side of touchdown variance when every member of their respective offense feasts. Tee Higgins was unable to haul in one of Joe Burrow’s four passing touchdowns in Week 7, falling behind Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd as the third receiver in the pecking order. The third-year wideout had a respectable, albeit disappointing performance, recording five receptions on seven targets (16.7%) for 93 yards (14.3 PPR PTS). The Bengals blowout of the Falcons continues Higgins’ middling streak as a high-end WR3, causing massive disappointment for managers that drafted him in the early rounds of offseason drafts. His perceived value has been on a slow decline since his 0.0-point performance in Week 5 where he suited up despite an ankle injury and received zero targets. Although his recent slew of production is discouraging, the peripheral metrics and outlying stats surrounding the Bengals star wideout and his future trajectory remain elite. Higgins has earned seven or more targets in every game this season, sans his injury game in Week 5. He ranks second on the Bengals in receptions (31), yards (455), and targets (44) despite missing nearly an entire contest and sits 21st overall in True Target Value (4.33), indicating positive regression is on the horizon. Furthermore, the Bengals are beginning to up the pace on the offensive side of the ball, moving further away from the pedestrian play-calling of head coach Zac Taylor. The offense ranks ninth in passing percentage per game, averaging a pass attempt on 61.0% of plays called. Increased volume means positive things for every pass-catcher on the Bengals' offense and should allow Higgins to return the high-end WR2 production he was drafted to uphold.
SELL HIGH
Michael Pittman WR - Indianapolis Colts
The Colts franchise is reshuffling its depth chart in a massive way that will have serious ramifications on every member of the offense. According to head coach Frank Reich, Matt Ryan will be benched for second-year quarterback Sam Ehlinger for the rest of the season. Ryan’s benching coincides with a shoulder separation along with the untimely demise of the veteran quarterback’s playing ability. One thing Ryan was succeeding at was upholding the monstrous target share and production of third-year wide receiver Michael Pittman. I, for one, am not willing to stick around to see if a sixth-round quarterback with zero career starts can do the same. The Colts overall passing production is sure to take a hit with Ehlinger under center if for nothing more than a reduction in volume. Ryan was averaging 42.2 pass attempts per game with Pittman earning a team-high 8.71 targets (22.8%) per game. It would be ludicrous to expect an Ehlinger-led offense to maintain that pace in the passing attack. Much of Pittman’s production is rooted in his high-volume role. He averages 15.92 PPR PPG, ranked WR16 on the season despite having a True Target Value rating of 3.83, ranked 33rd. The Colts' new-look offense could greatly reduce Pittman’s scoring ceiling in the coming weeks. Practicing risk aversion by trading the Colts star receiver for a player of equal value before the bottom falls out is a smart process.
D’Onta Foreman RB - Carolina Panthers
The Panthers cruised through the heavily-favored Buccaneers en route to a dominant defensive showing that had the NFC South underdogs coming out on top 21-3. A positive game script rife with clock control and rushing production saw D’Onta Foreman explode for 145 scrimmage yards (118 RSH YDS/27 REC YDS) on 17 touches (15 RSH/2 REC), tallying 16.5 PPR PTS (RB16). The departure of Christian McCaffrey seemingly had a positive effect on the offense as a whole as they trumped their division rivals in an unsuspecting loss. Managers foolishly believe Foreman will thrive as the lead back for the Panthers in McCaffrey’s stead, however, a look into the Panthers’ usage splits from Week 7 tells a much different story about the allocation of opportunities in this backfield. Foreman played 54.0% of the offensive snaps while second-year running back Chuba Hubbard accounted for 46.0%. Hubbard saw a 13.6% target share compared to his teammate's 9.1% and held his own on the ground as well, taking nine rushes for 63 yards and one touchdown. According to NextGen’s expected points metric, Hubbard had a 67.0% success rate on his opportunities with Foreman coming in at a lowly 27.0%. A shared backfield will not continue to yield high-upside performances like the one we saw in Week 7. Managers should attack RB-needy teams with an offer of Foreman with the intent of securing a rising asset with potential league-winning upside for the end-of-season stretch.
Tyler Allgeier RB - Atlanta Falcons
Rookie running back Tyler Allgeier finally found the endzone for his first professional score against the Bengals in Week 7. Honestly, with the way head coach Arthur Smith has been running his offense, it is a wonder that Allgeier took this long to crack the scoring plane in the first place. The Falcons were trailing by seven or more points for 100.0% of their offensive possessions against the Bengals. The team attempted 13 pass attempts in an unexplainable execution of a losing game plan. Smith refused to abandon the run game, allowing Allgeier to handle 16 of the Falcons' 29 rush attempts. Somehow, the rookie only managed 50 yards on the ground, breaking the plane of the end zone on a goal-line carry that your local grocer could have scored on. An uptick in production may be enough to convince unsuspecting managers that the ineffective rookie back has a season-long upside similar to his 2022 draftmates. Allgeier is nothing more than a placeholder until Cordarelle Patterson returns from injured reserve, a date that is merely two weeks away. The fourth-round pick has yet to take over Caleb Huntley for a three-down workload as the primary backup and holds no realistic chance of superseding Patterson if all members of the backfield are healthy. What little value Allgeier holds as the Falcons starter will rapidly dissipate once Patterson returns. Managers should attempt to gain a return on investment before the inevitable happens.
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.
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by Matt Ward
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.