The Buccaneers disappointed in Week 6, after I selected them as the game of the week, but we still went 2-1. It is now time for us to go undefeated as I feel great about these picks. The game of the week is my highest confidence choice but you can use any of these in your 2-team teasers.
Game of the Week
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) O/U: 49
Themi’s Teaser: Cowboys -0.5
Dallas Cowboys
The Detroit Lions are healthy after a much needed bye week. A fun offense gets even better with the expected returns of Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift. If that wasn’t exciting enough, the Cowboys should have Dak Prescott under center for the first time since he hurt his thumb in Week 1. Dallas won 4 straight games before finally falling again to the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. Cooper Rush had exceeded expectations with this team in his limited time as a starter but the defense led the way as they have played lights out all season. Dallas has the 5th best defense in EPA/play and is particularly strong against the pass. The pass rush has also been phenomenal. Dallas leads the league with 24 sacks and generates a QB pressure on nearly a third of opposing dropbacks, per Pro Football Reference.
Despite their record, the Lions are the perfect challenge for the Cowboys. Jared Goff has only been sacked 7 times and on 3.6% of pass attempts - 4th lowest in the league. The Lions also generate most of their offensive EPA via the run despite often being down in games. Per Broto’s coaching tendencies, the Lions are running at the 12th highest rate when trailing, as well. The Cowboys may be the much better team overall, especially with Dak Prescott back, but there are enough concerns to take this down to -0.5, just to secure a W.
Underdog of the Week
New York Jets (+1) @ Denver Broncos O/U: 37.5
Themi’s Teaser: Jets +7.5
This is my favorite kind of pick. The Jets are slight underdogs in an away game with a pitiful point total against a struggling offense and elite defense. The Broncos have some incredible offensive pieces but they just have not been able to put it together. Outside of their loss to the Raiders, Denver has not played a game that has been decided by more than a score. They even have two one point games mixed in there, a win and a loss. The Jets, on the other hand, have won three straight games with Zach Wilson returning to the team. Wilson only has 1 passing TD and fewer than 200 passing yards per game but the Jets are averaging over 30 points per game with him under center. Part of that comes from defensive TDs but Wilson truly is just taking advantage of all of his weapons. Since his return in Week 4, the Jets offense has jumped to 2nd in the league in rushing EPA and 17th in passing EPA. Rookie Breece Hall is going off, already amassing over 600 total yards and scoring 4 times. His usage in the run game has been noticeably better since Wilson’s return and the team has prospered thanks to it. Robert Saleh has found the road to victory. The Broncos have the 2nd best defense by both EPA and DVOA but they’re much weaker against the run. With a low point total, booming Jets team, and a good matchup, the Jets are the best underdog you can find this week.
Perhaps it’ll come back to bite me like it did last week with Tampa Bay but I am willing to pay up for a 6.5 point teaser to bring the Jets to +7.5 over +7 unless the book you’re betting on does not grade teaser pushes as losses. Make sure to read your book’s rules carefully or contact their support team to know exactly what will happen.
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) O/U: 45.5
Themi’s Teaser: Ravens -0.5
The two best rushing offenses in the league will go head-to-head in a divisional battle for control of the AFC North. Nick Chubb leads the league in rushing yards and TDs on a Cleveland team that has not passed much with Jacoby Brissett at the helm. Lamar Jackson is leading his own team in rushing yards with 451 on the year. Jackson’s 75.2 rushing yards per game is close to his 2019 MVP season numbers. The Browns are still the worst rushing defense in the entire league while the Ravens are below average. Baltimore also has a much better passing offense. Mark Andrews is tied with Travis Kelce for the most TE receiving yards this year and he should continue to feast in this matchup. Although injuries have continued to pester Baltimore, especially on offense, they have held substantial leads in all the games they have lost and have shown that they can still find a winning formula. They just have to stop giving up large leads. This isn’t rocket science. The Browns have been better than expected so this spread is far too rich for my liking. Tease the Ravens down and watch Lamar Jackson, Kenyan Drake, and whoever else is left run at will.
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By Themi Michalakis
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.