SLEEPERS
WR: Romeo Doubs (GB)
If you looked at the order of the Packers' 2022 draft board you would have assumed that second-round wide receiver Christian Watson would have been the rookie to target on this offense. The assumptions of the past could not be further from the facts of the present. Fourth-round rookie Romeo Doubs has far surpassed Watson on the depth chart as well as nearly every active receiver on the team. The former Nevada product ranks second on the team in receptions (26), receiving yards (234), and receiving touchdowns (2) while topping all teammates with 38 targets (18.2%). Doubs and the Packers line up against the Commanders as 4.5-point road favorites with a projected over/under scoring total of 41.5 between the two teams. The Commanders defense has a True Matchup Rank of 1st overall for wide receivers, allowing 53.1% over the expected average to their matchup. They allow 33.9 PPG to receivers, creating a wide-open avenue for Doubs to smash his 10.1 PPG (WR49) average. The crafty rookie has earned eight or more targets in three of his last four games with a 90.95% snap share and 84.9% route participation. Doubs is in an excellent position to exceed his projections against an easily exploitable defensive matchup.
Matt Ward
TE: Dalton Schultz (DAL)
The Cowboys survived life without Dak Prescott, going 4-1 with Cooper Rush under center as their franchise quarterback recovered from an injury to his throwing hand. Dalton Schultz appeared to be the only member of the offense to falter with Rush calling signals, catching just two passes for 18 yards over his last three contests. It is worth noting that the veteran tight end has been nursing a minor PCL injury in his right knee that bears some blame for his lackluster production. All indicators suggest that Schultz has recovered enough to remove his snap limitations as he has practiced in full at every chance leading up to the Cowboys' matchup against the Lions. Prescott is expected to make his return alongside Schultz and should rekindle the chemistry the pair shared in 2021. The Lions defense is among the best possible return games for the combo as they allow 12.4 PPG to the tight end position, ranked 5th in True Matchup Rank with a Points Over Average rating of 41.7%. The Lions are conceding 261.0 passing yards (26th) and 34.0 points per game (32nd) to rival offenses, gifting fantasy managers with several high-scoring shootouts this season. Schultz is flying under the radar as a forgotten tight end but should begin his climb back into the limelight against the league’s worst defense.
Matt Ward
QB: Aaron Rodgers (GB)
SF Gate
Why are people pretending to live in a world where Aaron Rodgers isn’t the back to back NFL MVP and a historically great fantasy asset? Yes, he lost Davante Adams and that has been a massive loss for him this year, but his slow start should help you this week as Rodgers has turned from a must start asset into a sleeper.
Rodgers has been the weekly QB16 or better in four of six games to start the season. He was only able to hit the QB1 mark one time during that stretch, and even that was a QB12 finish, but his scoring did not fluctuate much at all as he stayed within the 16-17 point range every one of those four games. Not game winning numbers but not devastating numbers either.
The Washington Commanders defense has been atrocious this season to put it bluntly. Their pass defense has more holes in it than a slice of swiss cheese and every quarterback in the league has been able to exploit it for maximum fantasy production. The Commanders are ranked as the #1 overall True Matchup for opposing QBs through the air which makes them the juiciest matchup possible for a pure pocket passer like Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers may not be putting up big numbers but he has been a very consistent fantasy producer and with QB1 options like Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Kirk Cousins and even Matthew Stafford on their bye-weeks, fantasy managers should look to utilize Aaron Rodgers’ talents as he faces the awful Washington Commanders pass defense.
Boyd Armstrong
BUSTS
WR: D.J. Moore (CAR)
The entire Panthers organization has entered self-destruct mode, leaving D.J. Moore alone and without help, amidst the rubble. The incompetent rule of head coach Matt Rhule abruptly ended with a much-needed termination. The team promptly dealt away Robbie Anderson to the Cardinals after removing him from a game due to a disagreement with the interim coaching staff. All of that is trumped by the recent blockbuster trade that sends franchise cornerstone Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers in return for a fistful of draft picks. Moore remains stranded on a broken offense in the middle of a complete teardown. The Baker Mayfield experiment has failed, culminating with the former first-overall pick landing on the injured list with a high ankle sprain. P.J. Walker took the start for Mayfield in Week 6, completing a horrendous 10/16 attempts for 60 yards. Moore was targeted a team-high seven times in that contest, catching three passes for a lowly seven yards. Walker is expected to call the shots under center again for the Panthers in Week 7, leaving Moore as nothing more than a desperation flex play. The loss of McCaffrey will allow defenses to hone in on Moore as the only relevant offensive weapon. Constant double teams in coverage coupled with the low-value targets of Walker creates a disastrous combo for Moore and the remaining Panthers receivers. A once must-start fantasy asset, Moore is now bordering irrelevance and belongs on your bench during a less-than-ideal matchup against the Buccaneers defense.
Matt Ward
TE: T.J. Hockenson (DET)
T.J. Hockenson reminded everyone of the otherworldly talent he wields when he exploded for 179 and two touchdowns on eight receptions against the Seahawks. The Lions tight end followed that up with a patented one-reception game for only six yards in a shutout loss to the Patriots. No one can follow excitement with disappointment from week to week quite like Hockenson. The promising tight end is a fast-track bully that feasts on weaker matchups when the offense lacks their top weapons but shows dreadful inconsistencies against the NFL’s top-ranked defenses. His 39.9-point outburst came against the NFL’s easiest matchup for the tight end position when the two top receivers (Amon-Ra St. Brown & D.J. Chark) and top running back (D’Andre Swift) were not on the field. All members of the offense are now healthy after receiving an additional week of rest during their bye. Unfortunately, the Lions face off against the Cowboys' stonewall defense that allows a mere 183.5 passing yards (4th) and 16.3 points (3rd) per game. The Cowboys are especially efficient at dismantling the tight end position, conceding 6.0 PPG with a Points Over Average rating of -27.4% and a True Matchup Rank of 27th overall. Hockenson will be forced to overcome a low-scoring affair against a tough matchup as the fourth option on the offense. Those ingredients serve up a big bowl of fantasy failure for this meandering tight end.
Matt Ward
QB: Jared Goff ( DET)
Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions offense have hit some incredible highs during the 2022 season, shocking the football world by scoring 35+ points in three of five games to start the season. Goff has been playing some very solid football for the Lions and has flashed some incredible fantasy production as a result. Through his first five games he has finished as a top seven QB twice with a QB7 and QB1 weekly finish against the Commanders and Seahawks, respectively. The other three games are a different story, however, as he was unable to even break the top sixteen mark in all three. He posted QB17, QB19 and QB30 finishes in the games in which he played against a defense that is not ranked bottom ten against quarterbacks. Goff has perfectly displayed his ability to perform as a high-end QB1 in the right matchup, while also showing he is a middling QB2 in the tougher ones. The Lions are set to face off against the Dallas Cowboys this week, a defense that definitely falls on the tougher side of the defensive spectrum.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has acted a woodchipper to quarterbacks all season long. They have clamped fantasy production for some of the best shot callers in the game including Tom Brady, Matt Stafford, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow, as opposing QBs are averaging only 13 points per game against America’s team. All signs point towards Goff struggling in Week 7 against the stout Dallas defense. Fantasy managers may want to look in a different direction for a streaming option this week.
Boyd Armstrong
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.