Week 15 Stock Up and Stock Down

With Week 14 of the NFL season in the books, Lead Writer Matt Ward has his eyes on three players increasing their stock and three players on the end-of-season decline heading into Week 15! Take advantage of your league mates by acquiring star players at their lowest value and dealing away volatile players at their highest values!

STOCK UP

Courtland Sutton (WR) - Denver Broncos

Courtland Sutton is quietly putting up the best season of his career while maintaining incredible consistency despite the wavering successes of his respective offense. With four games remaining, Sutton has already registered 53 receptions on 79 targets for 699 yards and a career-high 10 touchdowns. The underrated veteran wideout is averaging 13.6 PPR PPG (WR25), sitting as the WR21 overall on the season. Although his per-game averages appear mildly pedestrian, Sutton has hit a stride over the past several weeks that few wideouts can match. The Broncos top wideout has recorded only one game outside of the top 20 receivers in his last seven outings while producing high-upside finishes as the WR8 (Week 7: 19.6 PPR Points), WR14 (Week 10: 16.3 PPR Points), WR14 (Week 11: 16.6 PPR Points), WR19 (Week 13:15.7 PPR Points), and WR16 (Week 14: 15.2 PPR Points) during that stretch. Sutton has scored a touchdown in all but three games this season as his undeniable rapport with Russell Wilson continues to grow. The Broncos' top pass catcher has yielded 10 receiving scores (WR3) on the back of 16 red zone targets (9th) this season. Sutton has also operated as the team's best big-play threat outside of the red zone, hauling in 12 catches of 25 yards or more with four (FOUR!!!) game-winning touchdown grabs on his 2023 resume. The Broncos offense does not move without Sutton's successes and they should continue to look his way at a high volume after winning five of their last six games due largely in part to the wideout's career-best numbers.

Garrett Wilson (WR) - New York Jets

Garrett Wilson has been officially marked safe from the destructive dumpster fire that was the Tim Boyle-led Jets offense. No one and I mean no one, would have excelled in an offense that was, without hyperbole, helped by the most analytically ineffective, inaccurate, and inefficient quarterback to ever step foot onto a professional football field. Wilson was no exception to the downfall of the Jets offensive production, posting finishes of WR103 (Week 11), WR20 (Week 12), and WR43 (Week 13) during Boyle's unmitigated starting stretch. Fortunately, the Jets made a positive switch back to the criminally disrespected Zach Wilson who should helm the offense for the remainder of the season. Although incredibly inconsistent and inefficient in his own right, Wilson represents a monumental upgrade at the quarterback position from Boyle, putting that previous statement on full display in his first return to action. Wilson (QB) helped support a season-best outing from his top wideout, connecting with Wilson (WR) nine times on his team-leading 14 targets, producing 108 yards and a WR7 (20.1 PPR Points) finish on the week. The Jets’ top receiver had produced just two games below WR24 in seven starts with Wilson under center, compared to two games outside of the top 40 receivers in just three games with Boyle as the leading signal caller. Wilson’s talent as a premier elite pass-catcher is undeniable and his situation has finally improved after the Jets organization made mind-boggling efforts to actively downgrade the effectiveness of their offense.

Jake Browning (QB) - Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have ushered in a new ruler of the “Who Dey” jungle (at least for this season). The expectation bar for Jake Browning was admittedly low after the undrafted first-time starter took over the offense from Joe Burrow. Still, Browning has quickly earned a name for himself as a legitimate fantasy football threat and a potential diamond in the rough for future franchises. Browning had a pedestrian performance in his first full start of the season against the Steelers in Week 12 (13.98 Points/QB18) but has since caught fire in his last two outings with resounding performances against the Jaguars (28.66 Points/QB4) and Colts (28.70 Points/QB4). With back-to-back top-5 positional outings, the Bengals’ new starter has found himself as a must-add waiver wire target and potential playoff hero for managers in desperate need of a starting caliber quarterback. The defensive matchups to close out the 2023 season for Browning are less than ideal with games against the Vikings, Steelers, and Chiefs on tap during the fantasy playoffs. Nevertheless, ignoring Browning's astronomical rise as a legitimate producer would be foolish considering the vast array of quarterback injuries plaguing the fantasy football landscape.

STOCK DOWN

Chris Godwin (WR) - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Broto Fantasy content team was fairly tepid on Chris Godwin entering the 2023 season, citing several middling peripheral analytics that suggested major regression in the veteran wideout's averages after the Buccaneers made a switch from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield. In 2022 the Buccaneers averaged a league-leading pass percentage of 66.1% (751 Pass Attempts) while leaning heavily on the last bit of juice Brady possessed in his 45-year-old throwing arm. Those numbers and averages have greatly reduced in 2023 with Mayfield attempting just 438 passes through 13 starts. Godwin's middling target earning splits have remained sticky but the sheer volume of pass attempts that upheld his 2022 successes has dissipated into supporting only one top wideout – Mike Evans. Godwin has regressed to a menial secondary option on a low-volume passing offense while maintaining his fearful low-end efficiency metrics. He is averaging a mere 10.8 PPG with only one double-digit scoring performance in his last seven contests. Godwin has finished above WR24 only once in his last nine games and has just one top-12 game this season, coming back in Week 3 against the Saints. The veteran wideout has 11 games ranked outside of the top 24 receivers, including five games outside of the top 45 players at the position. Meanwhile, Mike Evans has continued adding to his Hall Of Fame career with yet another 1000-yard season while maintaining incredible scoring totals as the WR9 overall, averaging 17.23 PPR PPG. Godwin is entering the fantasy playoffs with no signs of positive regression and three tough defensive matchups against the Packers, Jaguars, and Saints. Safe to say that Godwin was not the reason you made the fantasy playoffs, but he can certainly be the reason you are eliminated from them.

Zack Moss (RB) - Indianapolis Colts 

Zack Moss received an early-season crowning as a potential league-winning asset. The widely overlooked running back opened up the 2023 campaign on an unstoppable tear while Jonathan Taylor (Injury/Contract Dispute) sat on the sidelines. Moss was averaging 21.4 PPR PPG during Taylor's absence, posting three top-10 outings (RB10, RB5, RB2). Moss surprisingly held incredible relevance upon Taylor's return in Week 6 but understandably regressed in his scoring averages. Nevertheless, Moss posted RB7 (17.9 Points), RB30 (7.2 Points), and RB15 (14.4 Points) while sharing the field with his aforementioned teammate. After Taylor suffered a potential season-ending injury the thought was that Moss would return to his high-powered week-winning ways only to be hit with the brutal reality of monstrous regression in every department. Moss is averaging a meager 8.7 PPR PPG over his past three games and has yet to surpass 70 scrimmage yards since retaking the starting gig. He is averaging under 4.0 YPC (3.89) during that stretch and has not found the endzone since Week 8, simultaneously marking his last outing inside of the top 15 running backs. Moss is trending on the wrong side of regression as his early-season successes now appear to be much more of an outlier than a continuing trend.

Josh Downs (WR) - Indianapolis Colts 

Apologies to all Colts fans as we end the article with two of the team's starters on frustrating declines. Josh Downs was on an astronomical rookie rise from Week 5 through Week 8, averaging 16.3 PPR PPG during that stretch with six or more targets in each contest. Since then, Downs has posted zero finishes inside the top 40 receivers, with five consecutive low-tier performances as the WR90 (Week 9), WR56 (Week 10), WR 44 (Week 12), WR55 (Week 13) and WR55 (Week 14). Conversely, Michael Pittman Jr has snuffed out all suggestions of target competition from Downs. Pittman has eight consecutive weeks under his belt above WR16, including three consecutive WR1 outings in his past three starts. Downs has fallen so far behind his aforementioned teammate that his combined total points scored over the past five games (27.9) is a mere 4.7 points more than Pittman's averages over the last three games (23.2 PPR PPG). Rookie regression is hitting Downs like a freight train with no signs of slowing anytime soon.

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

You can find my other works as the Lead Writer and DOC at Broto Fantasy Football.

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By Matt Ward