Sleepers
QB: Trey Lance - San Francisco 49ers
It seems like all season long, football fans around the world have been wondering when Trey Lance would take over starting Quarterback duties. It happened for the 49ers back in week 4 game against Seattle, but Lance went back to the sidelines once Jimmy Garoppolo returned from injury. The veteran QB injured his hand once more in week 16, making him doubtful for their matchup against the Texans this week. This means Trey Lance is poised to start in his 2nd career game, making for a very exciting twist to championship weekend for fantasy managers.
Trey Lance is a great start this Sunday as he faces the below average Houston Texans. It’s well past the time for waiver advice, but hopefully you picked him up if you were in need of a streaming option for this week. You should be confident in plugging in Trey Lance as your QB1 this Sunday due to his major rushing upside and the great matchup.
Despite only officially starting one game, Lance has produced over 130+ rushing yards this season and has looked great when getting to use his legs. He has the potential to scoop up a ton of extra fantasy points with his rushing ability. It would not be surprising if he ends up with at least 50+ yards and a touchdown on the ground this Sunday.
I am confident in Trey Lance this week and you should be too. Expect high quality fantasy numbers as he helps managers win their leagues.
Boyd Armstrong
RB: D’Andre Swift - Detroit Lions
A huge mistake people make in fantasy playoffs is overthinking. Rather than sticking to the decisions that got them to the championship, managers will find the hottest player off the waiver wire and try to “out-smart their opponent.
While the appeal of landing the number one waiver add of the week and plugging them in the lineup sounds great, it is not always the best decision. This is where D’Andre Swift comes into the picture.
Weeks ago, people would have scoffed at the idea of proclaiming D’Andre Swift as a sleeper. Through the first 11 weeks of the season, Swift was the RB7 in Half PPR formats. Unfortunately, he suffered a shoulder injury in Week 12 on Thanksgiving Day and missed the Lions next four games. Now, heading into the most important week in the fantasy football season, there are murmurs floating around that Swift could return to action this Sunday. If you’re a Swift fantasy manager, this poses a difficult question that could decide your season: To start or not to start Swift?
The answer is simple: Put D’Andre Swift in your lineups. Even though the Lions have already shut down T.J. Hockenson for the rest of the season, there has been no news that the same could happen to Swift.
After constantly being on the injury report for months with groin and shoulder injuries, Week 17 marks one of the few weeks Swift will go into a game with no injury designation whatsoever. If there were any questions regarding his health, he would not be suiting up this week or the rest of the season.
As for the matchup, this week the Lions face off against the Seahawks. The Seahawks are currently allowing 30.3 PPG to the RB position, 42.2% Points Over Average (POA), making them the second most favorable matchup for running backs. Also, the Seahawks are allowing 13.3 PPG through the air alone to the position which comes in dead last among all defenses. They are allowing running backs to nearly double their production through the air with a POA of 87.3%.
We all know that Swift’s expertise is as a pass catcher more than a pure rusher and this is his week to shine. He is heading into the fantasy championship with fresh legs and should use those legs to gash the Seahawks and lead fantasy managers to the promised land. Swift will come back right where he left off and finish as an RB1 on the week so make sure he is in all your lineups come Sunday.
Nick Beaulieu
WR: Jakobi Meyers – New England Patriots
Jakobi Meyers is the definition of a boring play. He has not been a WR1 all season and is now famous for being allergic to TDs. However, this is a week for him to shine.
Over the Patriots last four games, Meyers has been targeted six, eight, twelve, and eight times in that order. The volume is there, but his production has fallen short due to the Patriots playing not-so-benevolent defenses during that span. Fortunately, New England will face a Jaguars team that allows positive points over average to WRs (this means that WRs that face them score more than their season-long PPG).
Meyers can go 6-80-1 (he's due again, right?) and give you 17 points to compliment your championship squad this week and he is only rostered in about 59% of leagues. Jump on the opportunity to boost your squad one last time.
Santiago Casanova
TE: Foster Moreau - Las Vegas Raiders
Fansided
Darren Waller has been dealing with knee and back injuries for most of the 2021 season and is now on the COVID-19/reserve list ahead of the Raiders’ Week 17 game. Moreau will once again fill the starter's role at tight end and deserves legitimate consideration in your fantasy lineups.
The Raiders (8-7) are on the road against the Colts (9-6) in an AFC matchup with massive playoff implications for both teams. The Raiders enter the contest as 7-point underdogs to the hometown favorite Colts, with Vegas betting lines setting the spread at 44.5 points.
The Colts will rely heavily on MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor in hopes of grinding out a victory. The Raiders, on the other hand, will have no choice but to turn up the pace against the Colts with ambitions of forcing a pass-heavy game script. I believe Moreau will be the unsuspecting benefactor of said game script.
The Raiders have enjoyed the late breakout of Hunter Renfrow, but defenses have gotten wise to the slot receivers' success. Renfrow has just six catches on eight targets for 72 yards over the past two contests. Moreau, on the other hand, has earned 13 targets in those games, catching 11 passes for 132 yards.
The Colts defense is a playground of production for fantasy tight ends. The Colts allow 15.5 PPG to tight ends, ranked second. They also rank third in Points Over Average to the position at 46.6%.
Moreau is a capable and talented tight end with a guaranteed path to TE1 target volume against one of the softest matchups in the NFL. Moreau already averages a respectable 1.86 fantasy points per target. The slightest increase in opportunity against such a poor defense could provide stellar numbers.
Matt Ward
Busts
QB: Ryan Tannehill - Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans are facing off with the Miami Dolphins this week in a game that will have huge playoff implications for both teams. Miami has been on a major hot streak, led by their defense, while Tennessee has lost three of their last five games. The Dolphins are enjoying a seven-game winning streak whereas Tennessee has been cold and inconsistent in their recent games.
In Tannehill’s last seven games, he has averaged a measly 14.4 fantasy points per game for his managers. During this stretch, he has only faced two matchups that were tougher than this Miami defense when facing QBs (per POA): the Patriots and the Rams. In those two games, Tannehill scored nine and fifteen points, respectively.
In the most important week of fantasy football, look to pivot away from Tannehill.
Boyd Armstrong
RB: James Conner - Arizona Cardinals
James Conner was a godsend for fantasy managers who took the late round shot on him this season.
Through his first eight weeks of the season he was RB17 in Half PPR formats and was near the league lead in rushing touchdowns. Most of Conner’s value came from Week 9 to Week 14 when fellow RB Chase Edmonds missed time with a high ankle sprain. During that stretch, Conner was the RB2 overall and was crowned a “league winner” that managers could plug into their lineup without any hesitation. However, fantasy football is a week-to-week game and managers who once thought they were saved by Conner are now reminiscing of the days where there was no split backfield or health issues.
Chase Edmonds returned in Week 15 and immediately cut into Conner’s production. After seeing 80% or more of the snaps without Edmonds in the lineup, Conner saw only 42% of snaps compared to Edmonds’ 40%. After getting 20+ touches in four of his last five games, Conner only got 10 total touches to Edmonds’ eight touches. Conner also got injured toward the end of the game and ended up missing Week 16 in the process.
Chase Edmonds took advantage of Conner’s absence last week, finishing with 24 touches (8 receptions) for 127 yards and a touchdown on 92% of snaps.
It is evident the tides have turned in the Cardinals backfield and James Conner is not the plug-and-play option he once appeared to be just a few weeks ago. Conner is currently a game time decision but should suit up in a must-win game for the Cardinals. The issue is that even if he suits up, both snaps and usage are going to be limited.
The Cardinals are playing the Cowboys this week, a matchup that running backs would prefer to avoid. Dallas has allowed only 20.1 PPG to RBs this season with a POA of negative 14.5%. The Cowboys are the fifth least favorable matchup for the running back position this season. This is not a matchup where the hopes for James Conner should be high.
Nick Beaulieu
WR: Terry McLaurin – Washington Football Team
Terry's talent is out of this world. Some even started to argue he could be matchup proof and quarterback proof. Sadly, this season we found out that was not entirely true.
McLaurin is someone you probably drafted highly and has given you some good games throughout the season, so I understand the temptation to start him one more time during championship week, but I am here to tell you that is a very bad idea.
The Football Team will face the Eagles this Sunday. This Philly team ranks *dead-last* in Points Over Average (POA) to the WR with an astounding -25.8%. That, combined with the fact that Terry has not had a single game above WR43 since week 11, makes him a wide-out to avoid.
I urge you to find another option at WR in this all important week.
Santiago Casanova
TE: Kyle Pitts - Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons (7-8) travel into the frigid home turf of the Bills (9-6) for a Week 17 clash against the AFC juggernaut. The Falcons are massive road underdogs with Vegas betting lines favoring the Bills by 14.5 with an over/under of 44.0. The Falcons are in for a brutal matchup against one of the league's most well-rounded teams.
As impressive as Kyle Pitts has been as a rookie, Week 17 presents the worst defensive matchup at the most critical time for fantasy managers.
The Bills defense allows a deadening 7.1 PPG to tight ends, 38% below the average amount to the position. If you choose to subscribe to the narrative that Kyle Pitts is a wide receiver and not a tight end, I’ve got bad news. The Bills are equally as nasty when clamping down wideouts and slot receivers. They lead the league by allowing just 22.0 PPG to wide receivers, equating to 25.5% below average.
Pitts’ outlook worsens when you evaluate the matchup for his quarterback. Matt Ryan has not had a 300-yard passing performance since Week 9 and has thrown five interceptions to just four touchdowns in the last seven weeks. Ryan ranks 24th in True Throw Value at an uninspiring 0.445 per attempt.
Ryan has floundered against the softest defensive matchups and now gets the most challenging matchup imaginable for NFL quarterbacks. Matching their ferocity against pass-catchers, the Bills consistently dominate opposing quarterbacks. The Bills possess the number one pass defense in the NFL, allowing just 173.1 yards per game. They rank second in points allowed at 17.6.
Yards and points will be difficult to accumulate for the Falcons. Touchdowns have been difficult for Pitts to come by all season. The rookie tight end has caught just one touchdown pass in 16 games. Expecting his biggest game of the season against his most challenging matchup yet could lead to a recipe that costs you a fantasy championship.
Matt Ward
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For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.