The DFS Strategy Guide

So, you want to make some money playing DFS, huh?  Well that makes two of us, and I’m here to help!

In this article, I will be sharing with you a framework to set yourself up for success and enjoy some DFS sweats for the entire season! Whether you are a brand new player or a DFS veteran, there will be something in here for you!

  Let’s dig in! 

1. Contests

   1. Contest selection is unbelievably important as everybody wants to enter the biggest contest to win the life changing jackpot. The real question, however, should be who are you competing against?

      Let’s take a look at a current tournament for week 1 on Draft Kings, the $5M Fantasy Football Millionaire contest:

      1. Entry fee: $5 -

         Certainly reasonable. A price point that fits any budget.

      2. Top pay out: $1 million to first, pays out through 304500th place -

         Nice big payday and payouts all the way down to 304K? Pretty good.

      3. Max entries - 150:  

         This is where the issue arises. When you enter max entry contests as a leisurely DFS player, you are wasting your money. Your odds of winning are already slim to none, and now, going against sharks/sharps with optimizers and 150 lineups each, those odds suffer even more. Instead, you should pivot to single entry/three max entry tournaments. Even though sharks and sharps alike can still play these contests, they are limited in how many lineups they can submit, which makes the field a little more even. 

2. Contest type:

   1. Cash Games: Cash games are tough. Maintaining a winning percentage and ROI is extremely difficult. One of the most highly respected DFS players, Adam Levitan, has posted a 13.7% ROI in cash games and head-to-heads since 2015, which is damn good. But he also plays in many contests with many different lineups and large entries. Casual DFS players may be better off avoiding cash games or head-to-heads.  Most of the cash players are highly owned (60%+) making your margin of winning significantly smaller. One or two wrong players, and all your cash teams are buried.  Small field GPPs are the best chance for you to win money.

Now it is time to transition to Game Theory. There are several intricate ideas and details to consider when making a successful DFS lineup.

Understanding these two concepts, leverage and correlation, is paramount in creating a viable DFS GPP lineup (credit to Theory of DFS podcast and Jordan Cooper.) 

I will break down each and give examples of how to apply them when creating your lineup.

1. Leverage:

   1. To leverage means to maximize the use of something. So how do we incorporate that to our DFS lineups? Here is an example:

      1. If Dalvin Cook is considered a very popular play for week 1, we should not put Cook in our lineup. Instead, we can we use his ownership to our advantage by leveraging. We do this by leveraging Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson and/or Adam Thielen to create a Minnesota stack sans Dalvin Cook.  This way we use Cook’s high ownership numbers to our advantage. If Cook flops and the Cousins + Jefferson/Thielen stack hits, we’ve leveraged the success of our lineup.

      2. Here is another example:  Let’s say that in week 2, Matthew Stafford, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are very popular plays. If we avoid all three and instead use the starting RB Darrell Henderson, we maximize our lineup (leverage) by using a less popular Henderson and gaining an advantage against the field (or high ownership players.)  

      3. Final thoughts on leverage - If you plan on fading a popular QB of a team, it is best to fade the WRs as well.  If you’re taking one of the WRs, you are assuming they do well which would mean the QB does well and that doesn’t equate to leverage.    

2. Correlation:

   1. Correlation Is defined as a relationship or connection between multiple things. We use correlation to limit the amount of outcomes that you need to get right to win big when making a DFS lineup. For example, if we think the Rams are in a good spot to have a big week, we may want to use Matt Stafford in our DFS lineups. So, how do we correlate our lineup? By stacking. We stack by adding Stafford into our DFS lineups with Woods and/or Kupp in our lineup as well. We are assuming that the Rams will score a ton, meaning Stafford will throw multiple TDs to his two starting WRs.

   2. Here is an example that differs a bit, but can still be a productive strategy. Let’s say the Washington Football Team are heavy favorites against the Texans. How can we correlate a Washington lineup? Theoretically, if the WFT is expected to win, they will also be expected run the ball after taking an early lead. So, we use Antonio Gibson in our lineup and then correlate him with the Washington defense. We take advantage of the large workload and potential for a monster game for Gibson, while also taking advantage of the defense that will be put in great situations for sacks and turnovers against a bad team playing from behind.

   3. Last is the almighty double stack. Let’s use the Chiefs and Browns week 1 matchup as an example: This game has an over/under of 53 points, which is the highest point total on the week 1 slate. We can correlate this game several ways.  Since we expect the Chiefs and Browns to score a lot of points, we can use players from both teams. First, we can double stack Mahomes with Hill and Kelce. Then, we can bring it back with Odell Beckham Jr. on the other side. Since we expect the Chiefs to score a lot of points, we use Mahomes and his 2 top pass catchers to correlate, then we add a Browns WR as we expect the Browns to have to score and pass a lot to keep pace with the Chiefs, meaning one of their receivers is likely to have a big game as well. 

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I hope this guide helps you choose your DFS and contests and make your lineup decisions as the season kicks off!

Best of luck to you all this NFL DFS season!

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By Clayton Jones (@FF_Pulse_88)