Heat Wave: NFC East Quick Hits

New York Giants (Listen to the Podcast here)

• The Giants offense in 2020 was a pitfall of mediocrity and disappointment, ranking 31st overall in points scored. Now, Joe Judge and Jason Garrett return in 2021 as the New York Giants head coach and offensive coordinator.

• The New York Giants enter 2021 with the worst offensive line in the NFL—ranked dead last at 32nd overall by PFF.

• Daniel Jones’ rushing upside can hide some of his inefficiencies—he rushed for 423 yards last season on 65 rushing attempts.

• With only two weekly finishes outside the top 24 quarterbacks, in 2020, Jones has at the very least performed with a stable floor for those in 2QB leagues. 

• Devontae Booker is essentially free in all drafts and would have an immediate path to massive volume if Saquon’s health does not hold up.

• Kenny Golladay’s ADP has dropped significantly amongst injury concerns. If Golladay remains healthy he is the clear Alpha amongst Giants pass catchers and is a value.

• Evan Engram has declined in overall production from his outstanding rookie season. Engram, perhaps surprisingly, has been efficient with his volume, outperforming his true target value in points per game in all but one of his four seasons.

Philadelphia Eagles (Listen to the Podcast here)

• The Philadelphia Eagles’ tendencies from the prior season can be ignored. Former Indianapolis Colts’ offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni takes on the role of head coach for the first time in his career and Shane Steichen will be the Eagles' new offensive coordinator in 2021.

• The Eagles have a decent offensive line entering 2021, ranked 13th in the NFL by PFF.

• Jalen Hurts has incredible rushing upside: In Hurts’ three starts in 2020, he rushed 38 times for 238 yards and one touchdown.

• Hurts also threw for over 300 yards in two of those three starts in 2020, flashing a previously doubted ability as a solid passing quarterback. Hurts was QB1 overall in those three games.

• Devonta Smith tops a weak Eagles’ receiving depth chart. A player of Smith’s size and stature has not historically found success at the pro level. Smith, however, provides a talent-rich skill set that could help him break that mold.

• Jalen Reagor failed miserably in his rookie season, registering the second lowest success rate against man coverage in the history of Matt Harmon’s renowned receptionperception.com

• Miles Sanders has yet to live up to expectations. Stuck in a timeshare with Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell, Sanders' upside is restricted by inefficient receiving ability.

• Dallas Goedert is being drafted above his ceiling with Hurts under center. Goedert finished as TE19, TE24, and TE27 in the games Hurts started in 2020.

Washington Football Team (Listen to the Podcast here)

• Head coach Ron Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner will run a very similar offense to the system that Rivera and Turner’s father Norv ran in Carolina while coaching the Panthers.

• Fitzpatrick is a streaky fantasy producer. He has the ability to put up QB1 weekly finishes in bunches. Can he maintain that ceiling with a full year under center?

• Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel expect to be the main benefactors of Fitzpatrick's funneled targets. A new addition to Washington’s receiver corps, Samuel is familiar with Rivera and Turner’s system and should fit seamlessly into the offense.

• Logan Thomas ranked 26th amongst tight ends in true target value yet managed to finish 6th in points per game at the position.

• Thomas’ 110 targets in 2020 are likely to dip in the upcoming season. Fitzpatrick has not targeted tight ends consistently throughout his career and the presence of Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic limits Thomas’ check-down opportunities.

• Gibson runs a 4.39 40 yard dash, putting his speed score in the 95th percentile. Despite having the deck stacked against him as a rookie changing positions, Gibson finished 15th in points per game, 6th in rushing touchdowns, and 12th overall in total points in 2020.

• Gibson numbers are slightly skewed due to his touchdown production. Gibson ranked 54th in points per opportunity excluding touchdowns and an 81st ranked fantasy points over expected average.

Dallas Cowboys (Listen to the Podcast here)

• Mike McCarthy is the head coach for another season in Dallas. Last season’s coaching tendencies do not hold weight after the catastrophic loss of franchise quarterback Dak Prescott in 2020.

• Dallas continues to roster one of the best offensive lines in football, ranking 6th overall by PFF entering 2021.

• The Cowboys have an array of elite receivers at their disposal with Amari Cooper, Ceedee Lamb, and Michael Gallup on the depth chart. A jump in production from sophomore standout Lamb could hinder Gallup’s fantasy relevance.

• Ceedee Lamb's true target value ranked 50th in 2020 yet he ranked 28th in points per game. For a wide receiver to outproduce his target value margin in points per game by 22 spots is impressive for any player, let alone a rookie.

• Amari Cooper has solidified himself as a solid fantasy option at wide receiver. Cooper has finished outside WR19 only one time in the last five seasons.

• Ezekiel Elliot finished with negative rushing yards over expected for the first time in his career in 2020. Zeke ranked 65th in points per opportunity excluding touchdowns.

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Matthew Ward @PsychWardFF