Heat Wave: AFC South Quick Hits

Houston Texans (Listen to the Podcast here)

• We expect Tyrod Taylor to be the starting QB and he has never been good for supporting fantasy options over the course of his career. He will use his legs and occasionally be in the streaming conversation but he’s better off as an afterthought

• David Johnson was told by Texans staff that they want him to be the “new Duke Johnson” aka the 3rd down back

• Lindsay is the only Texans RB worth drafting at current ADP but there is a significant chance that nobody in this backfield is worth rostering—remember that there’s four good RBs on the team (DJ, Lindsay, Ingram, Burkhead) and Taylor will also be using his legs at QB

• Brandin Cooks has gotten to play with Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Deshaun Watson, and Jared Goff in his career and his only down season came with Goff at QB—so he’s not QB proof. 60/750/4 is an optimistic prediction given how porous the offense in Houston will be this season and that Taylor will be throwing the ball

Titans (Listen to the Podcast here)

• Mike Vrabel is still leading the charge and new OC Todd Downing helped Derek Carr to achieve his career best seasons

• Like his predecessor Arthur Smith, Downing was the Tight Ends Coach in Tennessee before being promoted to Offensive Coordinator. This is an indicator that the offense will likely remain very similar

• Ryan Tannehill is 6th, 2nd, and 3rd in True Throw Value in last three seasons

• Tannehill had seven rushing TDs last season and zero games outside of the top-24 QBs

• AJ Brown had a 66% catch rate and only 12 red zone opportunities last season—both of these numbers increasing means more expected points

• Injury concerns are baked into Julio Jones’ ADP who will have a very solid season if (big if) healthy

• Anthony Firsker was 7th in yards per reception amongst TE’s last season and will be in the TE streaming conversation all year

• Expect Josh Reynolds to be more relevant than many think, as he’s listed as a starting WR and has upside if any of the Titans big two WRs miss time

Jaguars (Listen to the Podcast here-Recorded prior to Etienne injury)

• New head coach and offensive coordinator Urban Meyer and Darrell Bevell, respectively, bring some mystery to the Jaguars offense

• James Robinson was a product of volume last year as he was 29th in YPC, 32nd in PPOxTD, had negative Negative RYOE, and had Negative EPA per attempt. With that said, he has a great chance to be a mid level RB2 this season with Etienne’s injury.

• Marvin Jones is older and has a safe floor but limited upside while Chark has flashed potential but has been extremely inconsistent and Shenault may not be used much more than a gadget player. The early part of the season should tell a lot about how this offense will function.

• ADP of QB 10 is a very steep price to pay for Trevor Lawrence, as he’s a rookie without the rushing upside of Lance/Fields

Colts (Listen to the Podcast here)

• With Frank Reich still in town and an internal promotion to offensive coordinator for Marcus Brady, the Colts are likely to remain run heavy

• Taylor was third in rushing yards last season and was RB6 over the last 6 weeks of the season. Taylor is also expected to take over a higher percentage of the work this season

• With an ADP of RB8, however, Taylor is being drafted at his ceiling if he loses a chunk of work to Hines, Mack, and Wilkins

• Carson Wentz had a 16/15 TD/Int ratio last season, was 36th in TTV, and 39th in Yards per Attempt. He has been a bad QB outside of his one MVP-caliber season

• TY Hilton is already hurt, Parris Campbell offers upside but has only played nine games in his career, and Pittman is the most exciting option but only surpassed WR50 twice last season and may be affected by poor QB play

• Mo-Allie Cox can be a decent late-round best ball dart throw if the Colts decide to utilize him more, especially in the red zone

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By Mike Schissel (@michaelschissel)