After months and months of research for the 2021 fantasy season, national drafting weekend, the great Labor Day weekend, is upon us, and my research is done.
As a final hoorah, I have made a list of 21 bold predictions that I believe can come to fruition this NFL season. Some of these takes are lukewarm, some are spicy hot, but all are predictions that I truly believe in. I am not saying they definitely will happen, I am not that nuts, but I am saying they have a shot, so take that as you will!
Let’s do it!
Raheem Mostert and Trey Sermon each run for 1000+ yards
Why this is bold: This has happened 7 times in NFL history. The last pair of RBs to pull it off was Jonathan Stewart and Deangelo Williams in 2009.
Reasoning: Raheem Mostert is one of the best RBs in the league when healthy and the Niners just showed a lot of faith in Trey Sermon by cutting Wayne Gallman. To keep Mostert healthy, and in classic Shanahan fashion, San Fran will run them both hard.
Brandon Aiyuk finishes as the WR15 or better
Why this is bold: Brandon Aiyuk currently has an ADP of WR23.
Reasoning: I believe Aiyuk is an absolute star and will make that known by the end of this season.
Henry, Zeke and Chubb are all drafted outside the top 12 in 2022
Why this is bold: Each of these RBs are currently being drafted in the top 12 of fantasy drafts.
Reasoning: Henry is heavily, heavily worked and is getting up there in age. Without a pass catching role, there is only so long he can be counted on for 1500 rushing yards and 15 TDs. Zeke has gotten worse year after year and is purely a product of volume. How long can that last? Chubb is in a timeshare without a pass catching role. He is being drafted far too high and the market will correct itself in 2022.
Corey Davis and Elijah Moore both finish as top 36 WRs
Why this is bold Corey Davis has an ADP of WR40 and Elijah Moore has an ADP of WR56.
Reasoning: Zach Wilson and the Jets are looking like they could surprise this season and, if they do, it will be on the back of their two best wide receivers. I am all in on both of these guys.
Justin Jefferson will be a top 12 overall pick in 2022
Why this is bold: RBs always dominate the first round of fantasy drafts. Only Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill have top 12 ADPs among WRs this season.
Reasoning: Jefferson is a super stud wide receiver with a super efficient QB. His ADP should already be higher this season. He will enter the elite of the elite class in 2022.
Lamar Jackson reclaims his role as the overall QB1
Why this is bold: Lamar Jackson is currently being drafted at QB4.
Reasoning: With no Dobbins and injuries piling up among Ravens position players, Lamar is going to need to carry this offense. This likely means a whole lot of running. Sign me up for Lamar reclaiming his QB1 title.
Justin Herbert finishes outside the top 12 QBs
Why this is bold: Justin Herbert is currently being drafted at QB8.
Reasoning: I discuss Herbert and why I am fading him at cost here.
Miles Sanders finishes the season as an RB1
Why this is bold: Miles Sanders is currently being drafted at RB19.
Reasoning: If the Eagles offense improves from 2020, which really should be a guarantee, and Sanders gets a more consistent workload, he could be who fantasy players wanted him to be last year.
Kenyan Drake outscores Josh Jacobs
Why this is bold: Josh Jacobs has an ADP of RB17. Kenyan Drake has an ADP of RB39.
Reasoning: Kenyan Drake is a good running back, will be the pass catcher, and just got paid starter money. Jacobs will rely on TDs. Simple as that.
Mike Evans finishes outside the top 20 WRs
Why this is bold: Mike Evans has an ADP of WR13 and has finished below WR20 just once in his career.
Reasoning: There are simply too many mouths to feed in Tampa Bay with a fully healthy receiver room. Evans had a career low target share in 2020 without a fully healthy receiver room. This is the year Evans disappoints.
Tee Higgins finishes as a top 18 WR
Why this is bold: Tee Higgins has an ADP of WR24.
Reasoning: Higgins is a star being overshadowed by future star Ja’Marr Chase. Those fading Higgins are going to be upset about it come the end of the season.
Dyami Brown outscores Mecole Hardman
Why this is bold: Mecole Hardman has an ADP of WR50. Dyami Brown has an ADP of WR110.
Reasoning: The Mecole Hardman love fest is out of control. If Sammy Watkins could not be productive as Patrick Mahomes’ WR2, Hardman will not be either. Dyami Brown is a big, strong receiver and has had a good camp. He will take over the WR2 role in that offense and surprise folks this season.
Dallas Goedert finishes outside the top 12 TEs
Why this is bold: Goedert has an ADP of TE8.
Reasoning: I do not trust Jalen Hurts as a passer and Zach Ertz stayed in Philly. Hard pass on the part time TE in a bad passing offense.
Cole Kmet and Eric Ebron finish as top 15 TEs
Why this is bold: Cole Kmet has an ADP of TE29. Eric Ebron has an ADP of TE23.
Reasoning: Cole Kmet took over as the starter at the end of last season in an offense that featured the TE quite a bit. If he takes Jimmy Graham’s playing time this season, he could surprise. Eric Ebron will continue to be a red zone threat and will cede less targets to Pat Freiermuth than people think.
Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both finish as top 12 WRs
Why this is bold: Robert Woods has an ADP of WR14. Cooper Kupp has an ADP of WR17.
Reasoning: The Rams are certain to pass a whole bunch this season with Matt Stafford and no Cam Akers. Sign me up for the consistent, yet dripping with upside, WR duo.
Robert Tonyan outscores TJ Hockenson
Why this is bold: TJ Hockenson has an ADP of TE6 and is a breakout candidate for many. Robert Tonyan has an ADP of TE9.
Reasoning: Hock was super underwhelming with over 100 targets last season and the offense is now one of the worst units in the league. Tonyan was first in points per opportunity excluding touchdowns and scored a ton of touchdowns. And yeah, ARod is back!
Baker Mayfield finishes outside the top 20 QBs
Why this is bold: Baker Mayfield has an ADP of QB16.
Reasoning: Baker was outside the top 20 in points per game in 2020 and his circumstances are largely the same. I don’t see much changing in the Cleveland offense.
Jimmy G “Alex Smith’s” Trey Lance
Why this is bold: Many expect Lance to take over early in the season, evidenced by his ADP of QB17 (and climbing). Garoppolo has an ADP of QB37.
Reasoning: The Niners remind me very much of the 2017 Chiefs. Very good overall team. Strong defense. Game manager QB. Likely to compete for a division title. Who says Lance takes over if Jimmy G is winning games?
Courtland Sutton finishes as a top 24 WR
Why this is bold: Courtland Sutton has an ADP of WR34.
Reasoning: Sutton had over 1,100 yards with awful QB play in 2019. He looks fully back and healthy. Teddy Bridgewater is not great by any means, but he is serviceable. As long as he remains healthy, he is going to perform. Sign me up.
Juju Smith-Schuster leads Pittsburgh WRs in fantasy points
Why this is bold: Juju Smith-Schuster has the lowest ADP of all Steelers WRs at WR32 compared to Diontae Johnson’s WR21 and Chase Claypool’s WR25.
Reasoning: Juju has one of the best ever age adjusted first two seasons in the league for WRs. He is simply underrated and is a reception machine. If Big Ben bounces back, so will Juju. Wait and draft Juju if you want a piece of the Pittsburgh offense folks.
Mike Davis is 2020 Julian Edelman
wtvbam.com
Why this is bold: Mike Davis has an ADP of RB24 and is being drafted in the 5th/6th round.
Reasoning: Last preseason I said that Julian Edelman’s sixth round ADP was an absolute joke and fantasy players would look back at their 2020 drafts and say “I DRAFTED HIM THAT HIGH LAST SEASON?!?!?!?!?” My choice for, “I DRAFTED HIM THAT HIGH LAST SEASON?!?!?!?!?” in 2021 is Mike Davis. Davis is a 28 year old journeyman RB without any long term success in the league. This was my choice before the Wayne Gallman signing. Now that Gallman is there, I am doubling down. I do not want anything to do with Mike Davis this season and you should not either.
ADP per fantasy pros. All ADPs and bold predictions based on half ppr scoring.
The Fantasy Football by BRoto app is now live on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store! Download it today for player cards, statistics, rankings, interactive tools, coaching tendencies, and much, much more. FREE for a limited time.
By Michael Petropoulos (@BRotoFFMike)
For a second straight season, I am betting against Mahomes.